I HEREBY STEP DOWN FOR NOW

[Markk]

It's a worn out, trite red herring.

I''ve been driving a high MPG hybrid for going on 20 years. When I next need to buy a vehicle, it will be electric. I won't own another ICE vehicle for the rest of my life. I've worked out of my home for even longer. When I commute to my downtown office, I do so entirely using public transportation. I've changed out my old, aluminum framed windows for more energy efficient windows as a I can afford it. (Almost done...). When I replace light bulbs, I do it with the most energy efficient models available. I haven't flown anywhere for decades, and I doubt I'll do it again. I don't take vacations to far away locations. When it's time to replace the gas furnace my house came with, I'll replace it with electric. Same with the hot water heater. Last I checked, solar panels on my roof made no sense given where I live and the location of my home.

Is that enough virtue signaling for you? Do I pass Markk's silly purity test?

To the extent the government takes action to transition away from fossil fuels, I'll be subject to that action the same as everybody else. This notion that to argue for change in society requires one not to be a part of society is dumber than dumb.

Why are you getting so butt hurt? This is just a conversation. I wanted to know so I can point out what it might cost you personally to upgrade, and just how “not easy” it is for most Americans. Also most folks can’t work at home, especially those in manufacturing and service. You can probably afford to do so, but most home owners can’t, they are struggling to just pay crazy high mortgages. I also want to point out what has to happen for a world to turn from oil and gas, to as you put it, earth and wind.

What state do you live in? How many amps is your house panel? You said you have a gas furnace…can I assume you have a gas range, water heater, and gas dryer. Do you have a pool or spa that is either electric of gas? Is your roof comp shingles, shake, or other? Do you have a plywood substrate for your roofing, or strip or skip sheathing? Does your line voltage to your house come in overhead, or underground. Do you have auto sensors in your rest rooms and kitchen, A/B switching and/or LED lights?

Again these are among the things one must factor if they ar to go full board electric. Don’t get so upset these are all fair questions, and while I am not a estimator, I do a great deal of estimating above and beyond my construction management duties, so cost I throw out will be real close, although they would be based on California’s inflated costs, so you could probably cut 20% off if you live in the midwest of south.

And FYI I drive a small 4 cylinder Colorado daily (company truck). My personal truck is a 09 Tacoma with a 4 Cylinder manual, with a lumber rack, and my wife drives a Camry. I let go my big trucks years ago. I also put new windows on my house and blew more insulation in my attic. And am almost all LED through out. Point being just because I am conservative, does not mean I don’t care about the environment.

[Res Ipsa]

It's a worn out, trite red herring.

I''ve been driving a high MPG hybrid for going on 20 years. When I next need to buy a vehicle, it will be electric. I won't own another ICE vehicle for the rest of my life. I've worked out of my home for even longer. When I commute to my downtown office, I do so entirely using public transportation. I've changed out my old, aluminum framed windows for more energy efficient windows as a I can afford it. (Almost done...). When I replace light bulbs, I do it with the most energy efficient models available. I haven't flown anywhere for decades, and I doubt I'll do it again. I don't take vacations to far away locations. When it's time to replace the gas furnace my house came with, I'll replace it with electric. Same with the hot water heater. Last I checked, solar panels on my roof made no sense given where I live and the location of my home.

Is that enough virtue signaling for you? Do I pass Markk's silly purity test?

To the extent the government takes action to transition away from fossil fuels, I'll be subject to that action the same as everybody else. This notion that to argue for change in society requires one not to be a part of society is dumber than dumb.

Why are you getting so butt hurt? This is just a conversation. I wanted to know so I can point out what it might cost you personally to upgrade, and just how “not easy” it is for most Americans. Also most folks can’t work at home, especially those in manufacturing and service. You can probably afford to do so, but most home owners can’t, they are struggling to just pay crazy high mortgages. I also want to point out what has to happen for a world to turn from oil and gas, to as you put it, earth and wind.

What state do you live in? How many amps is your house panel? You said you have a gas furnace…can I assume you have a gas range, water heater, and gas dryer. Do you have a pool or spa that is either electric of gas? Is your roof comp shingles, shake, or other? Do you have a plywood substrate for your roofing, or strip or skip sheathing? Does your line voltage to your house come in overhead, or underground. Do you have auto sensors in your rest rooms and kitchen, A/B switching and/or LED lights?

Again these are among the things one must factor if they ar to go full board electric. Don’t get so upset these are all fair questions, and while I am not a estimator, I do a great deal of estimating above and beyond my construction management duties, so cost I throw out will be real close, although they would be based on California’s inflated costs, so you could probably cut 20% off if you life in the midwest of south.

And FYI I drive a small 4 cylinder Colorado daily (company truck). My personal truck is a 09 Tacoma with a 4 Cylinder manual, with a lumber rack, and my wife drives a Camry. I let go my big trucks years ago. I also put new windows on my house and blew more insulation in my attic. And am almost all LED through out. Point being just because I am conservative, does not mean I don’t care about the environment.

If capital costs are a barrier to the changeover, subsidize the capital costs.

[canpakes]

My personal truck is a 09 Tacoma with a 4 Cylinder manual, …

Good pick. We’d love to find a decent used Tacoma now so that we can load up on gear more easily when we take the kids camping, but finding a Tacoma under $15K that doesn’t already have 200K miles on it is getting pretty tough. And even that is more than we’d want to spend, anyway (it would be an unusual amount considering everything else that we’ve ever bought).

Personally, we’d love to have an electric vehicle replace either of our two crusty ol’ troopers, but driving cars until every last bit of life has been wrung from them also has some ecological/resource advantages, provided that the EC components are properly maintained.

[Jersey Girl]

Personally, we’d love to have an electric vehicle replace either of our two crusty ol’ troopers, but driving cars until every last bit of life has been wrung from them also has some ecological/resource advantages, provided that the EC components are properly maintained.

That's typically what we do. Drive them towards just about the bitter end but in good enough shape they can still be sold. Years ago we had a Honda Civic hatchback that when we actually sold it, it had gone over 300k miles and the seats were dry rotting from the sun. Someone bought it because it still ran.

Our vehicles (8 or 9?) were all bought used except for one that was purchased years ago new and even that was stripped down somewhat. Around these parts you only drive as fast as you are willing to hit a pole in winter so many of our vehicles have dents in spite of our best efforts. We could purchase a new vehicle but the game plan is to run all of what we have into the ground--hopefully not literally.

[Markk]

My personal truck is a 09 Tacoma with a 4 Cylinder manual, …

Good pick. We’d love to find a decent used Tacoma now so that we can load up on gear more easily when we take the kids camping, but finding a Tacoma under $15K that doesn’t already have 200K miles on it is getting pretty tough. And even that is more than we’d want to spend, anyway (it would be an unusual amount considering everything else that we’ve ever bought).

Personally, we’d love to have an electric vehicle replace either of our two crusty ol’ troopers, but driving cars until every last bit of life has been wrung from them also has some ecological/resource advantages, provided that the emissions control components are properly maintained.

My Tacoma is pretty clean, for a work truck, in that I drive a company truck during the week. I worked for a company that gave me a monthly allowance for a few years or I would have under 5Ok miles on it today. I paid 14K for it new, and it has about 120k miles now. I could probably sell it for more than I paid new for it. But right now both the cars are paid off, the house is paid off, the kids are all doing good in their professions…so we are trying to save all we can. I am over new cars. My wife wants to get a Avalon in a few years but we will probably go electric after we get solar and I have enough amps for a home charging system, but I have to upgrade my service panel to 200 amps.

My company truck is a 2020 Colorado and while it only has a 4 cylinder it is really roomy and a good commuter, and great for downtown San Diego and LA parking, but the payload sucks, I miss my Silverado when I need power and payload. I like the new electric trucks but I am not going to pay that kind of Money any time soon, maybe after I retire and it will be my last truck.

[Markk]

Why are you getting so butt hurt? This is just a conversation. I wanted to know so I can point out what it might cost you personally to upgrade, and just how “not easy” it is for most Americans. Also most folks can’t work at home, especially those in manufacturing and service. You can probably afford to do so, but most home owners can’t, they are struggling to just pay crazy high mortgages. I also want to point out what has to happen for a world to turn from oil and gas, to as you put it, earth and wind.

What state do you live in? How many amps is your house panel? You said you have a gas furnace…can I assume you have a gas range, water heater, and gas dryer. Do you have a pool or spa that is either electric of gas? Is your roof comp shingles, shake, or other? Do you have a plywood substrate for your roofing, or strip or skip sheathing? Does your line voltage to your house come in overhead, or underground. Do you have auto sensors in your rest rooms and kitchen, A/B switching and/or LED lights?

Again these are among the things one must factor if they ar to go full board electric. Don’t get so upset these are all fair questions, and while I am not a estimator, I do a great deal of estimating above and beyond my construction management duties, so cost I throw out will be real close, although they would be based on California’s inflated costs, so you could probably cut 20% off if you life in the midwest of south.

And FYI I drive a small 4 cylinder Colorado daily (company truck). My personal truck is a 09 Tacoma with a 4 Cylinder manual, with a lumber rack, and my wife drives a Camry. I let go my big trucks years ago. I also put new windows on my house and blew more insulation in my attic. And am almost all LED through out. Point being just because I am conservative, does not mean I don’t care about the environment.

If capital costs are a barrier to the changeover, subsidize the capital costs.

I don’t think you really understand how deep we are in bed with Oil. If oil stops we cease to exist as a society, and people will starve and die. WE are so deep into inflation now and you want the government to give more money away?

I am just starting to try to get my arms wrapped around this, and I have a lot of reading to figure it out. My very loose understanding is…in the 50’s Middle East Oil started to be traded in US dollars…and because of that and how the need for oil has grown and countries have grown (like China)…it is a huge source for us to print currency. I don’t understand how this all works yet, if i ever will. But recently the Saudi’s stated they might explore replacing the oil Dollar with the oil Yen and trade v is the Yen. Which if true, and if they actually could just do that, would be a disaster for us.

We need to calm down and assimilate into alternative energy and again in my opinion really beef up natural gas. It will take time and folks need to understand that.

[canpakes]

[My very loose understanding is…in the 50’s Middle East Oil started to be traded in US dollars…and because of that and how the need for oil has grown and countries have grown (like China)…it is a huge source for us to print currency. I don’t understand how this all works yet, if i ever will. But recently the Saudi’s stated they might explore replacing the oil Dollar with the oil Yen and trade v is the Yen. Which if true, and if they actually could just do that, would be a disaster for us.

The US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency is a super-interesting topic - and you’re correct inasmuch that it allows us to ‘print money’ with supposedly less consequence to our own economy. It’s also what allows us to organize sanctions against Russia that are more effective than could ever be if the dollar was not the world’s reserve currency choice. This is something that may become a challenge down the road as China’s economy continues to grow.

But, I probably shouldn’t add yet another derail to the derail’s derail. : )

[Res Ipsa]

[My very loose understanding is…in the 50’s Middle East Oil started to be traded in US dollars…and because of that and how the need for oil has grown and countries have grown (like China)…it is a huge source for us to print currency. I don’t understand how this all works yet, if i ever will. But recently the Saudi’s stated they might explore replacing the oil Dollar with the oil Yen and trade v is the Yen. Which if true, and if they actually could just do that, would be a disaster for us.

The US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency is a super-interesting topic - and you’re correct inasmuch that it allows us to ‘print money’ with supposedly less consequence to our own economy. It’s also what allows us to organize sanctions against Russia that are more effective than could ever be if the dollar was not the world’s reserve currency choice. This is something that may become a challenge down the road as China’s economy continues to grow.

But, I probably shouldn’t add yet another derail to the derail’s derail. : )

There are benefits to being a country with a currency that is held s part of other country’s foreign currency reserves. But all those extra dollars aren’t in circulation, so printing them doesn’t give us much in the way of domestic advantages. The purpose of having foreign currency reserves is to protect a country in the event that its own currency suffers a significant devaluation. So, it’s there for stability. Any change in the mix of currencies would be gradual — China has something like a trillion dollars in its reserves, so a sudden devaluation of the dollar isn’t in its own best interest.

Like lots of other things, it’s probably healthier for the world to have so much of its reserves invested in a single currency — its a huge risk for China. The percentage of these funds held in dollars has fallen from 70% to 60% as countries diversify their foreign exchange reserves. The US also has foreign exchange reserves in various currencies. We don’t need as much because of the trade deficit.

Currencies are traded all over the globe and in all kinds of contacts between countries. Even if OPEC started selling oil for a different currency, countries could exchange that currency for dollars to hold in their foreign exchange reserves.

None of that has to do with domestic oil production.

[Res Ipsa]

Short economics review. Oil companies are, for the most part, profit maximizes. Oil companies tap their cheapest reserves first. As they produce more, they use reserves that are more expensive to tap. So, as the company increases production, the cost of producing the next barrel of oil goes up. In economics that’s the marginal cost of production.

As the price of oil increases the demand decreases. As a result, the revenue from selling the next barrel of oil decreases. That’s the marginal revenue. In a competitive market, the oil company will set the quantity of oil produced at the point that MC=MR: The point where the revenue from the next barrel equals the cost of producing the barrel. That’s the point at which it has maximized its profits.

The Saudis can produce more oil at a marginal cost of $10-20 a barrel. We have something like three times the total reserves of the Saudis, but there’s a catch. Most of it is in the form of shale oil, which is more expensive to get out of the ground than conventional oil. And the cost varies from something like $35 a barrel to around $90 a barrel.

During the oil embargo in the 1970s, the US took a look at using shale oil. But, OPEC always kept the price of oil low enough that it wasn’t profitable.

All that changed because of President … no one, actually. It was Fracking. Fracking reduced the cost of harvesting both shale oil and natural gas, resulting in increased US production of both.

But, remember that $10-20 Saudi production cost. The OPEC countries can crash the price of oil anytime they want to in order to make production of shale oil unprofitable.

When the pandemic hit, oil prices crashed as demand fell off a Cliff. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to a negative price for a short period of time. The Saudis and Russians threatened to start a production war, which would have devastated the oil shale business. As it was, U.S. production fell significantly because the price remained too low to make all but the easiest to recover shale oil to be recoverable.

Now oil prices have not just recovered to pre pandemic levels, they’ve spiked much higher. WTI closed at around $113 per barrel. But it seems that the companies that drill for shale oil are a little gun shy about rushing back in. Nobody can predict how long prices will stay this high and the companies have to invest in drilling new wells. So, the US production is a little slow to recover. On the other hand, Alberta must be loving this as their tar sands operation can be cranked up.

What this means is, increasing US production of oil requires high, sustained prices in order to make it profitable to tap shale oil reserves. We’ll keep pumping our conventional reserves, but higher US production requires the price of gas to stay high.

[Markk]

[My very loose understanding is…in the 50’s Middle East Oil started to be traded in US dollars…and because of that and how the need for oil has grown and countries have grown (like China)…it is a huge source for us to print currency. I don’t understand how this all works yet, if i ever will. But recently the Saudi’s stated they might explore replacing the oil Dollar with the oil Yen and trade v is the Yen. Which if true, and if they actually could just do that, would be a disaster for us.

The US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency is a super-interesting topic - and you’re correct inasmuch that it allows us to ‘print money’ with supposedly less consequence to our own economy. It’s also what allows us to organize sanctions against Russia that are more effective than could ever be if the dollar was not the world’s reserve currency choice. This is something that may become a challenge down the road as China’s economy continues to grow.

But, I probably shouldn’t add yet another derail to the derail’s derail. : )

If you find a “oil money” for dummies link let me know? Controlling sanctions makes sense.

As far as derailing a topic…derailing a thread is what makes this interesting…if you just call DP, Joseph Smith, Trump-and Biden dumb ass’s over and over on a thread it gets old.