Is Putin Playing Possum?

[MeDotOrg]

This general/military strategist that Michael Savage is quoting says that Putin has localized nuclear weapons that don't have a large fallout area. He could destroy an American city without effecting Europe. Once he demonstrates he's willing to do this, Europe would be reluctant to retaliate lest they get hit with a nuclear weapon as well.

This strategy envisions nuclear weapons as the ultimate fallback position. Understand that if this strategy is valid now, it has been valid since the neutron bomb era. Even if the West were not to respond in kind, Putin must realize that if he uses a nuclear weapon he has sentenced himself to a bunker existence. All the wealth he has amassed would be nothing.

Is Putin a nihilist in the same way Hitler was a nihilist? In his mind are Putin and Russia the same?

'Playing Possum' only works if you are able to absorb the energy your enemy is expending while maintaining your ability to counterattack. It's difficult to play possum when your supply lines are broken. In terms of manpower and material, the West is far better positioned than Russia. In boxing you can't use the rope-a-dope when your opponent has a longer reach and is a bruising body puncher.

[K Graham]

He also seems to be better prepared with underground bunkers in the event of nuclear war.

Do you mean better prepared to survive it? Survive it for what purpose? Like replenish the radiated Earth ala Noah? Protect amassed wealth that cannot be used for any purpose at all? To be the leader of a global pile of rubble? Create a new world like he's God so he just whips up a healthy forest, atmosphere, water supply, and builds new infrastructure from what exactly?

I fail to see the rationale here.

A nuclear holocaust is survivable, especially if you reside in the southern hemisphere. Places like Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Australia are likely to be the safest places during a nuclear war because virtually all of the nuclear weapons will be detonated in the north. It will take 1-4 years before the atmosphere recovers from a nuclear winter, though there will likely be permanent damage done to the Ozone. We don't really know how long it would be before crops would grow again, but I suspect most developed countries have a contingency for such a situation. A stockpile of seeds, food, water, survival equipment, etc is likely already in the works in undisclosed locations.

But with thousands of nukes being denotated across North American, Europe and Russia, the world could very well be speaking mostly Spanish or Portuguese within a century.

[Jersey Girl]

Do you mean better prepared to survive it? Survive it for what purpose? Like replenish the radiated Earth ala Noah? Protect amassed wealth that cannot be used for any purpose at all? To be the leader of a global pile of rubble? Create a new world like he's God so he just whips up a healthy forest, atmosphere, water supply, and builds new infrastructure from what exactly?

I fail to see the rationale here.

A nuclear holocaust is survivable, especially if you reside in the southern hemisphere. Places like Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Australia are likely to be the safest places during a nuclear war because virtually all of the nuclear weapons will be detonated on. It will take 1-4 years before the atmosphere recovers from a nuclear winter, though there will likely be permanent damage done to the Ozone. We don't really know how long it would be before crops would grow again, but I suspect most developed countries have a contingency for such a situation. A stockpile of seeds, food, water, survival equipment, etc is likely already in the works in undisclosed locations.

But with thousands of nukes being denotated across North American, Europe and Russia, the world could very well be speaking mostly Spanish or Portuguese within a century.

I wouldn't want to survive it.

[Res Ipsa]

The whole system of nuclear weapons is set up to insure that no one can "win" a nuclear war. The U.S. can pick up the launch of any Russian missiles capable of reaching the U.S. at launch

Not the hypersonic missiles

What good are bunkers going to do when your country's infrastructure is destroyed and the land contained with fallout.

I think Putin figures himself or a few select people can survive it, at least better than his enemies. There's an old saying, "Nobody can suffer like a Russian." That's not saying I think Putin is right in what he's doing. I just have a respect for what he's capable of doing and take him seriously.

This general/military strategist that Michael Savage is quoting says that Putin has localized nuclear weapons that don't have a large fallout area. He could destroy an American city without effecting Europe. Once he demonstrates he's willing to do this, Europe would be reluctant to retaliate lest they get hit with a nuclear weapon as well.

Satellites can detect the launch of any hypersonic middle capable of hitting the US.

It’s the response from the US that he has to consider.

[ajax18]

Even if the West were not to respond in kind, Putin must realize that if he uses a nuclear weapon he has sentenced himself to a bunker existence. All the wealth he has amassed would be nothing.

How much does he care about that? He's 71 years old. I think he's more focused on his legacy amongst people like Stalin and Krustchev.

Is Putin a nihilist in the same way Hitler was a nihilist?

I don't know. I thought Putin was Orthodox and Hitler was Catholic.

In his mind are Putin and Russia the same?

Do you mean Michael Savage?

[ajax18]

You're wrong that Putin wants a nuclear war. If he wanted one, he could have one any time. Of course he doesn't want one. He doesn't have to bait the US into anything to start one. If his main objective was a nuclear strike, it would make more sense to do the strike with no warning, out of nowhere, not to use a failed war as a pretense.

I hope you're right.

It is certain that Russia will survive a nuclear war better than the US, not because of bunkers, but because it's Russia, the largest country in the world and mostly wasteland. He could personally survive in his own private bunker assuming the few support staff he needs don't turn on him. That's been true forever.

The suggestion that Putin is just putting out junk he doesn't care about is laughable. He is using good equipment, the best he has, in many cases.

The truck tires went flat and they had no replacements. The convoy was stalled. The Russian military looked incompetent at best. It's really hard for me to believe he's sending his best stuff.

The risk is whether out of anger and desperation he would use nukes.

I agree

By the way, those of the school of thought that we should be pushing him harder also believe he's more likely to use a nuke the longer this drags out, rather than if we stand up and slap the crap out of him.

Maybe both courses of actions would push him to use a nuclear weapon?

[Jersey Girl]

Even if the West were not to respond in kind, Putin must realize that if he uses a nuclear weapon he has sentenced himself to a bunker existence. All the wealth he has amassed would be nothing.

How much does he care about that? He's 71 years old. I think he's more focused on his legacy amongst people like Stalin and Krustchev.

He's 69 years old.

[Res Ipsa]

You're wrong that Putin wants a nuclear war. If he wanted one, he could have one any time. Of course he doesn't want one. He doesn't have to bait the US into anything to start one. If his main objective was a nuclear strike, it would make more sense to do the strike with no warning, out of nowhere, not to use a failed war as a pretense.

I hope you're right.

It is certain that Russia will survive a nuclear war better than the US, not because of bunkers, but because it's Russia, the largest country in the world and mostly wasteland. He could personally survive in his own private bunker assuming the few support staff he needs don't turn on him. That's been true forever.

The suggestion that Putin is just putting out junk he doesn't care about is laughable. He is using good equipment, the best he has, in many cases.

The truck tires went flat and they had no replacements. The convoy was stalled. The Russian military looked incompetent at best. It's really hard for me to believe he's sending his best stuff.

The risk is whether out of anger and desperation he would use nukes.

I agree

By the way, those of the school of thought that we should be pushing him harder also believe he's more likely to use a nuke the longer this drags out, rather than if we stand up and slap the crap out of him.

Maybe both courses of actions would push him to use a nuclear weapon?

From what I’ve read, the problem isn’t so much the quality of the equipment as it is the failure to properly maintain it. That’s allegedly the result of rampant corruption in the personal.

[Gadianton]

How much does he care about that? He's 71 years old. I think he's more focused on his legacy amongst people like Stalin and Krustchev.

I agree, this is his chance, and out of anger he may very well go scorched earth and blow it all away if he doesn't get what he wants. The points that ex-Kremlin commentators who know him make:

1) Putin is not psychotic. He may be evil, but he's rational within his evil and distorted world. I think it was Andrea Kozyrev who was the Lavrov of his day, who explained that threats of going all in is a tactic stemming back to his gangster days as a youth. Let's say you and your buddy are outnumbered in an alley. Then you pull a knife and leap forward wildly to take them all on, but your buddy (pretends to) stops you and holds you back, "no, let it go for now!" -- part of the show.

2) if 1) is wrong and he really, really is ready to go all in with nukes, it's not his own unilateral decision to make. He can't just press a button himself. His military officials and KGB silent partners must agree. It's unlikely that they are all ready to end humanity over this. It's rather possible that a coup, instead, is in the making.

My opinion: Putin's power while far too great may not be quite as great as it appears. Consider Alexei Navalny. He got away with making fun of and exposing Putin for years in supremely embarrassing ways. He may now be serving a 10-year sentence, and may have barely escaped death by poisoning, but he hasn't been executed, and he did escape. He was taken out of the hospital and flown to Berlin when on his death bed. Although the hospital was crawling with FSB officials. That wouldn't have happened in North Korea I don't think. We don't fully understand how his power works in Russia.

[Moksha]

Ajax, as a Breitbarter and Trumper, do you think it is worthwhile to throw in your lot with Putin?