RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

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Manetho
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Manetho »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:53 pm
How can ‘we’ reform the system when, as you aptly explained, the system is designed to keep the GOP squarely in minority rule?

- Doc
That is the problem. There are possibilities, like voting-rights protections and anti-gerrymandering laws, and adding states to counter the imbalance of the Senate. The Electoral College and the Supreme Court are more difficult to solve. But some norms (most obviously the filibuster) will have to be broken in order to get anything done. Business as usual simply guarantees failure.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

Manetho wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:22 pm
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:53 pm
How can ‘we’ reform the system when, as you aptly explained, the system is designed to keep the GOP squarely in minority rule?

- Doc
That is the problem. There are possibilities, like voting-rights protections and anti-gerrymandering laws, and adding states to counter the imbalance of the Senate. The Electoral College and the Supreme Court are more difficult to solve. But some norms (most obviously the filibuster) will have to be broken in order to get anything done. Business as usual simply guarantees failure.
None of that can happen since, as you outlined above, the GOP has used state legislatures to gerrymander their own seats, which allows them to gerrymander Congressional seats, and since rural states get equal representation in the Senate I can’t imagine how Dems could achieve any of the results you suggest. The only way around the unethical stranglehold GOPhers have on our government is for Governors to ignore mandates, but if they start doing that it moves us closer to balkanization, which is what something like 50% of the GOP wants, anyway (which would be disastrous on so many levels it’s hard to wrap one’s mind around it).

I’s suggest Dems get better at messaging, but they seem to want to go all in on wokeness. The backfire effect is in full swing, but they’re too daft to get off pearl clutching to figure out a better strategy. I guess we’ll see how it’s going to go.

- Doc
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

I'm aware of all of what you've written -- I'm just asking whether you are willing to live with the consequences of ending the filibuster. When the Rs are in a position of being able to end Social Security and Medicare with majority votes in both houses, are you willing to live with that? The Constitution gives less densely populated states a structural advantage. That being the case, which party is more likely to "need" the filibuster?

The "nuclear option" was first used on the filibuster by the Ds when they controlled the Senate to allow Obama's appointees to be confirmed on a majority vote. It changed the rules for all presidential appointments except the Supreme Court Justices. The Rs followed suit when they were in a position to nominate Supreme Court Justices, and, as a result, they were able to confirm Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. How's that working out for you?

Conservatives may be a numerical minority on lots of issues, but they are a big minority. It's not like 20% of the population controlling the country. The percentages are relatively close, which means that means that we should anticipate back and forth results in terms of who has a majority in Congress and who holds the presidency.

You want to increase the number of states on a majority vote? Cool, just wait until we get N.W. Wyoming, N.E. Wyoming, S.W. Wyoming and S.E. Wyoming Raise the number of reps? Sure. And then wait until it gets lowered to 400. Pack the court with liberals? Wait for the 52 member Supreme Court with so many partial concurrences and dissents that there's not a majority on any issue.

Anything that can be done on a majority vote can be undone on a majority vote. And which party will win a majority in the House or Senate is pretty volatile right now.

And the fact is that there isn't a numerical majority in the Senate that will vote to abolish the filibuster. That requires taking two more Senate seats away from the the Rs who will be willing to repeal the filibuster. So, what's the best pitch: vote for Ds because if you do we'll change the rules to make sure that we're the permanent majority or vote for Dems because here's what we're going to do to make things better for you?
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Vēritās »

I'm not worried about the future, it will correct itself in time.

Much to the chagrin of Republicans today, they know as well as we do that their future is limited unless they can continue to manipulate voting laws, gerrymander, create white rage against the brown machine, brainwash people through their churches, etc., which they won't be able to do forever. I'm firmly confident that in 20 to 50 years America will be on a much better course with today's Republican party in the rear view mirror and viewed as an embarrassing stain on American politics. One thing Republicans cannot stop is the gradual diversification of America, which drives them absolutely insane (ajax), and it is the source of so much of their rage and "culture war" nonsense (FOX) which leads to so much indoctrination based on lies and stupidity (Churches).

But consider the facts. The only reason Trump won in 2016 was because he spewed a racist rant against Mexicans and promised the worst Americans that they would be seeing a wall dividing us. They came started crawling out of America's armpits and voted in droves,. Trump won huge among uneducated disgruntled white Christian males. But even with all that going for him, along with the black swan event in the Comey letter, Trump narrowly defeated a woman who had been demonized in the media for two decades. He still lost the popular vote by 3 million, and a mere 88,000 votes in three different swing states made all the difference to give him a slight win in the electoral college. His second time around, he loses huge to Bumbling Biden because nearly 82 million Americans said they had had enough of it and would prefer an old man on his last leg, than a tyrannical clown who thinks the Presidency should be used to enrich himself and his family.

In just the past 20 years, "White" representation in America has diminished from 75.1% to just 61.6%. Religiosity is also a huge thing that tends to push people to vote Red, and that has also taken a drastic nosedive, especially among Evangelicals which is the source of their fascism. It is hard imagine any republican ever winning again without Texas' electoral votes, and now Texas alone is gradually becoming purple, and likely even more so now that millions have left California.

Asian representation has doubled in the past decade coming close to double digits, and Asians now tend to vote blue, probably because they tend to be the most educated among us

The GOP has failed America at every chance. From Nixon (watergate), to Reagan (Iran-Contra), to Bush (Savings and Loan), to W (Lies about Iraq's WMDs) to Trump (where to damned begin?), they give us the worst scandals ever and they're responsible for the past five economic recessions. Americans are stupid for sure, because so many keep voting them in office on the pretext of trying to win a culture war against the evil libs, but eventually common sense has to kick in. It might take another generation or two before there is enough economic history to prove to even the hardest numbskull that Republicans are bad for America.

75% of Americans identified as Christian in 2011—in 2021, that number shrunk to 63%, a 12% decrease. Ten years ago, roughly 18% of Americans were not affiliated with any religion, identifying as agnostic, atheist or “nothing in particular”—that number grew to 29% in 2021, an 11% increase. It is difficult to imagine a nation that is 30-40% agnostic concerned about "saving the unborn."

In many ways the hijacking of the Supreme Court by the orange dictator, along with their Theocratic rulings, is just the pathetic result of a failed Theocratic system trying to perform one last "hurrah" before it flutters out and becomes irrelevant.
"I am not an American ... In my view premarital sex should be illegal ...(there are) mentally challenged people with special needs like myself- Ajax18
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Vēritās »

Manetho wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:22 pm
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:53 pm
How can ‘we’ reform the system when, as you aptly explained, the system is designed to keep the GOP squarely in minority rule?

- Doc
That is the problem. There are possibilities, like voting-rights protections and anti-gerrymandering laws, and adding states to counter the imbalance of the Senate. The Electoral College and the Supreme Court are more difficult to solve. But some norms (most obviously the filibuster) will have to be broken in order to get anything done. Business as usual simply guarantees failure.
Getting more people to vote is the immediate answer. The fact is Democrats tend to when during record turnouts.
"I am not an American ... In my view premarital sex should be illegal ...(there are) mentally challenged people with special needs like myself- Ajax18
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Vēritās »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:14 pm
I'm aware of all of what you've written -- I'm just asking whether you are willing to live with the consequences of ending the filibuster. When the Rs are in a position of being able to end Social Security and Medicare with majority votes in both houses, are you willing to live with that? The Constitution gives less densely populated states a structural advantage. That being the case, which party is more likely to "need" the filibuster?

The "nuclear option" was first used on the filibuster by the Ds when they controlled the Senate to allow Obama's appointees to be confirmed on a majority vote. It changed the rules for all presidential appointments except the Supreme Court Justices. The Rs followed suit when they were in a position to nominate Supreme Court Justices, and, as a result, they were able to confirm Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. How's that working out for you?

Conservatives may be a numerical minority on lots of issues, but they are a big minority. It's not like 20% of the population controlling the country. The percentages are relatively close, which means that means that we should anticipate back and forth results in terms of who has a majority in Congress and who holds the presidency.

You want to increase the number of states on a majority vote? Cool, just wait until we get N.W. Wyoming, N.E. Wyoming, S.W. Wyoming and S.E. Wyoming Raise the number of reps? Sure. And then wait until it gets lowered to 400. Pack the court with liberals? Wait for the 52 member Supreme Court with so many partial concurrences and dissents that there's not a majority on any issue.

Anything that can be done on a majority vote can be undone on a majority vote. And which party will win a majority in the House or Senate is pretty volatile right now.

And the fact is that there isn't a numerical majority in the Senate that will vote to abolish the filibuster. That requires taking two more Senate seats away from the the Rs who will be willing to repeal the filibuster. So, what's the best pitch: vote for Ds because if you do we'll change the rules to make sure that we're the permanent majority or vote for Dems because here's what we're going to do to make things better for you?
The filibuster needs to be permanent abolished, the Supreme Court needs to have at least 23 Justices, the electoral college needs to be dispensed with, gerrymandering needs to be outlawed, and churches need to start paying taxes since they want to get so involved in politics. I think it will all happen in time, maybe not our lifetime, but it will happen. The world is moving in a direction they don't like, and I know you keep saying what about the R's take over and reverse things. I think if the Rs got rid of Social Security that would be the biggest gift to Democrats ever. The results would be catastrophic for the Rs, they're just too stupid to understand that. And I suspect in the next few years we'll see something similar happening because of the five priests on the high court reversing Roe. I think you underestimate the the will of Female America. They do represent a majority of us, and if they'd all just damned vote in their best interests, we'd likely never see a Republican President or Senator again.
"I am not an American ... In my view premarital sex should be illegal ...(there are) mentally challenged people with special needs like myself- Ajax18
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

Vēritās wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:24 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:14 pm
I'm aware of all of what you've written -- I'm just asking whether you are willing to live with the consequences of ending the filibuster. When the Rs are in a position of being able to end Social Security and Medicare with majority votes in both houses, are you willing to live with that? The Constitution gives less densely populated states a structural advantage. That being the case, which party is more likely to "need" the filibuster?

The "nuclear option" was first used on the filibuster by the Ds when they controlled the Senate to allow Obama's appointees to be confirmed on a majority vote. It changed the rules for all presidential appointments except the Supreme Court Justices. The Rs followed suit when they were in a position to nominate Supreme Court Justices, and, as a result, they were able to confirm Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. How's that working out for you?

Conservatives may be a numerical minority on lots of issues, but they are a big minority. It's not like 20% of the population controlling the country. The percentages are relatively close, which means that means that we should anticipate back and forth results in terms of who has a majority in Congress and who holds the presidency.

You want to increase the number of states on a majority vote? Cool, just wait until we get N.W. Wyoming, N.E. Wyoming, S.W. Wyoming and S.E. Wyoming Raise the number of reps? Sure. And then wait until it gets lowered to 400. Pack the court with liberals? Wait for the 52 member Supreme Court with so many partial concurrences and dissents that there's not a majority on any issue.

Anything that can be done on a majority vote can be undone on a majority vote. And which party will win a majority in the House or Senate is pretty volatile right now.

And the fact is that there isn't a numerical majority in the Senate that will vote to abolish the filibuster. That requires taking two more Senate seats away from the the Rs who will be willing to repeal the filibuster. So, what's the best pitch: vote for Ds because if you do we'll change the rules to make sure that we're the permanent majority or vote for Dems because here's what we're going to do to make things better for you?
The filibuster needs to be permanent abolished, the Supreme Court needs to have at least 23 Justices, the electoral college needs to be dispensed with, gerrymandering needs to be outlawed, and churches need to start paying taxes since they want to get so involved in politics. I think it will all happen in time, maybe not our lifetime, but it will happen. The world is moving in a direction they don't like, and I know you keep saying what about the R's take over and reverse things. I think if the Rs got rid of Social Security that would be the biggest gift to Democrats ever. The results would be catastrophic for the Rs, they're just too stupid to understand that. And I suspect in the next few years we'll see something similar happening because of the five priests on the high court reversing Roe. I think you underestimate the the will of Female America. They do represent a majority of us, and if they'd all just damned vote in their best interests, we'd likely never see a Republican President or Senator again.
Speaking as a member of the left, I think this is the kind of arrogant thinking that got us where we are today. Do you know how many times I argued with fellow lefties in 2016 who justified not voting or voting third parties by saying similar things -- like Trump being elected would be the best thing ever for the left because it would show the country how bad the right is?

Process, process, process. If we just change the rules enough, we'll win. Meanwhile, Trump made serious inroads into the Hispanic vote, which the Ds seem to just take for granted because race.

Telling people that they're voting against their interest because they're stupid is not how you win elections. It's how you piss people off and galvanize the opposition. You have to persuade. You have to convince them that what Ds are going to do is better than what Rs are going to do. To even get started on what you're proposing, you've got to convince the voters to give the Ds two more seats than they have today. Telling them they're stupid isn't going to cut it.

And by the way, a man telling women what their bests interests are is probably the worst possible political strategy ever.

If demographics are the destiny you think they are, no radical changes are needed. Rescue is just around the corner...
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Manetho »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:14 pm
When the Rs are in a position of being able to end Social Security and Medicare with majority votes in both houses, are you willing to live with that?
If they're hell-bent on doing it, it's better that they do it when they can face electoral consequences for their actions than when they have a stranglehold on the country.
Res Ipsa wrote:The "nuclear option" was first used on the filibuster by the Ds when they controlled the Senate to allow Obama's appointees to be confirmed on a majority vote. It changed the rules for all presidential appointments except the Supreme Court Justices. The Rs followed suit when they were in a position to nominate Supreme Court Justices, and, as a result, they were able to confirm Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. How's that working out for you?
Say the Democrats hadn't weakened the filibuster for appointments under Obama, thus crippling his presidency. Do you really believe that when the Supreme Court vacancies opened up under Trump, Republicans would have let those seats stay empty, out of appreciation for the Democrats' sacrifice to the sacred filibuster?
Res Ipsa wrote:So, what's the best pitch: vote for Ds because if you do we'll change the rules to make sure that we're the permanent majority or vote for Dems because here's what we're going to do to make things better for you?
The latter, obviously. Of course Democrats need to make things better for the public, but that can't happen when the filibuster prevents most of their policy proposals from getting through!
Res Ipsa wrote:Conservatives may be a numerical minority on lots of issues, but they are a big minority. It's not like 20% of the population controlling the country. The percentages are relatively close, which means that means that we should anticipate back and forth results in terms of who has a majority in Congress and who holds the presidency.
Of course what I'm outlining is a risky strategy. But the Republicans are clearly willing to trash plenty of norms themselves. The norms we're arguing about right now are norms that the Republicans keep in place not out of respect for tradition, but because they work in their favor. Sticking to them is more than risky. It's certain disaster.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

So, here's the latest polling on expanding the Supreme Court, taken after Dobbs was decided: https://www.newsweek.com/expanding-supr ... ll-1719806

That's 34% approve of expansion. 54% disapprove. So, there's nowhere near majority support for expansion. What do you think the reaction of the undecideds would be to the narrative: Democrats defy the will of the majority to pack Supreme Court because they are sore losers?
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Physics Guy »

The founders of America democracy were without doubt gifted political thinkers, but they were not superhumanly gifted enough to craft a system which would stay good for over 200 years of drastic change. They made Democracy 1.0, and they made it too hard to upgrade.

I can't think of any nation that has copied the American constitution. Far from being an ideal system, it has serious flaws.

I hope the United States can somehow overcome them. I think that the United States of America has done a lot more good than harm in the world; humanity has been very lucky in this era to have the USA as its superpower. American power has done some horrible things, but has also done some really excellent things, and it could all have been a lot worse.

The whole MAGA movement is so misguided. America has so many enormous assets that the only thing that can stop it from being great is an anxious pride that makes it afraid to recognise its flaws and fix them. Real confidence embraces humility. The United States should have that kind of confidence. It's sad to see that it doesn't, today.
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