RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

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Vēritās
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Vēritās »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:17 pm
Here's a good reminder that leaving the issue of abortion to the states does not mean that the state legislature's have unlimited discretion. States have constitutions, too, some of which have been interpreted to protect abortion rights. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... tion=alert
We need to get two Senators on board to block the filibuster so we can codify it for the entire country.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:17 pm
Here's a good reminder that leaving the issue of abortion to the states does not mean that the state legislature's have unlimited discretion. States have constitutions, too, some of which have been interpreted to protect abortion rights. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... tion=alert
For Example:
SEC. 1.1. The state shall not deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions, which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives. This section is intended to further the constitutional right to privacy guaranteed by Section 1, and the constitutional right to not be denied equal protection guaranteed by Section 7. Nothing herein narrows or limits the right to privacy or equal protection.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

Vēritās wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:31 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:17 pm
Here's a good reminder that leaving the issue of abortion to the states does not mean that the state legislature's have unlimited discretion. States have constitutions, too, some of which have been interpreted to protect abortion rights. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... tion=alert
We need to get two Senators on board to block the filibuster so we can codify it for the entire country.
And when Republicans take the Senate at some point down the road?
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Manetho »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:35 pm
And when Republicans take the Senate at some point down the road?
If the Republicans take the Senate while a Democrat is in the White House, the filibuster won't make a difference, because the threshold to override a presidential veto is higher than the threshold to break a filibuster. If there's a Republican Senate and a Republican president, the situation will honestly be too dire for the filibuster to be much of a safeguard. Right now, we need voting-rights protections, and we need more states added before the wild population imbalance in the Senate gives Republicans a permanent lock on it. And above all, we need massive legislation to reduce carbon emissions. None of that can happen with the filibuster in place.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

Binger wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:33 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:17 pm
Here's a good reminder that leaving the issue of abortion to the states does not mean that the state legislature's have unlimited discretion. States have constitutions, too, some of which have been interpreted to protect abortion rights. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... tion=alert
For Example:
SEC. 1.1. The state shall not deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions, which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives. This section is intended to further the constitutional right to privacy guaranteed by Section 1, and the constitutional right to not be denied equal protection guaranteed by Section 7. Nothing herein narrows or limits the right to privacy or equal protection.
That's certainly one example. But that level of specificity isn't required at all.

For example, several years after Roe v. Wade, Florida amended its constitution to add an explicit right of privacy.
SECTION 23. Right of privacy.—Every natural person has the right to be let alone and free from governmental intrusion into the person’s private life except as otherwise provided herein. This section shall not be construed to limit the public’s right of access to public records and meetings as provided by law.
The right of privacy was the same "fundamental right" first declared by the Court in Griswold and recognized in Roe, Lawrence, etc. As that's what the "right to privacy" was at the time Florida added it to its Constitution, it would not be surprising at all for a Florida Court to hold that the constitutional right of privacy in Florida applies to abortions.

Also, note that the Florida Constitution also says:
SECTION 1. Political power.—All political power is inherent in the people. The enunciation herein of certain rights shall not be construed to deny or impair others retained by the people.

SECTION 2. Basic rights.—All natural persons, female and male alike, are equal before the law and have inalienable rights, among which are the right to enjoy and defend life and liberty, to pursue happiness, to be rewarded for industry, and to acquire, possess and protect property. No person shall be deprived of any right because of race, religion, national origin, or physical disability.
So, the rights that are only mentioned in the U.S. Constitution's preamble are included in the text of the Florida Constitution. A pregnant women in Florida has an express constitutional right to liberty and to pursuit of her happiness.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Vēritās »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:35 pm
Vēritās wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:31 pm


We need to get two Senators on board to block the filibuster so we can codify it for the entire country.
And when Republicans take the Senate at some point down the road?
You think they'd ever get two thirds of the senate to go for something that 70% of the country is against?

the Supreme Court will do it because they answer nobody.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

Manetho wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:03 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:35 pm
And when Republicans take the Senate at some point down the road?
If the Republicans take the Senate while a Democrat is in the White House, the filibuster won't make a difference, because the threshold to override a presidential veto is higher than the threshold to break a filibuster. If there's a Republican Senate and a Republican president, the situation will honestly be too dire for the filibuster to be much of a safeguard. Right now, we need voting-rights protections, and we need more states added before the wild population imbalance in the Senate gives Republicans a permanent lock on it. And above all, we need massive legislation to reduce carbon emissions. None of that can happen with the filibuster in place.
So what happens the next time Rs have a majority in both houses and an R is president? It's not like that's unprecedented.

Gaming or changing the rules as opposed to persuading your fellow citizens to your position is inherently unstable. And if you game it enough, you get a revolt. That goes both ways, and the Rs should remember that, too.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Res Ipsa »

Vēritās wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:35 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:35 pm


And when Republicans take the Senate at some point down the road?
You think they'd ever get two thirds of the senate to go for something that 70% of the country is against?

Supreme Court will do it because they answer nobody.
What is it, exactly, that 70% of the country is against? The results of abortion polling depend heavily on the questions asked.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:43 pm
Gaming or changing the rules as opposed to persuading your fellow citizens to your position is inherently unstable. And if you game it enough, you get a revolt. That goes both ways, and the Rs should remember that, too.
This is the problem, though. On a lot of issues, the Republicans are already in the minority, but they do not care because they are gaming the system themselves to establish minority rule. Some states' legislative districts are so heavily gerrymandered that it's virtually impossible to unseat Republicans from their majority, and many are also passing vote-suppressing election regulations. That means they can impose unpopular policies and be shielded from accountability. Federal legislation could crack down on gerrymandering and voter suppression, but it can't get passed because of the Senate and the filibuster.

The Senate is heavily skewed in their favor because so many states are rural and low-population, and the split between the parties is becoming an increasingly polar divide between urban and rural areas. The Dakotas have roughly the same population as metropolitan Virginia Beach, but they have twice as much power in the Senate as California, with one-ninth of the population of the entire country. Can you envision them ever electing another Democrat to the Senate? And how long will partial holdouts like Montana and West Virginia keep Jon Tester or Joe Manchin around? The filibuster exacerbates this problem, by giving 41% of the Senate, which can represent a pretty darn small portion of the US population, the power to block any legislation. And the problem is growing worse: by 2040 or so, a majority of the country will be living in just 15 states and be represented by less than a third of the Senate.

Even the House is skewed in Republicans' favor, because the size of the House hasn't been increased in a century and most of the population growth in that time has been in urban areas, yet low-population states can't have fewer than one representative, so in every reapportionment cycle, high-population states have to lose seats to the ones that are booming. If the Wyoming Rule were imposed, so that there were a consistent maximum population size for a House district, we would need 138 more seats!

Presidential elections are affected by all these factors, because states' electoral vote totals are determined by the size of their House and Senate delegations. More populous states have more power in the Electoral College, but not as much as their populations warrant, because of the lack of the Wyoming Rule. As a result, whereas splits between the popular vote winner and the Electoral College winner were rare in the 19th century and simply did not happen in the 20th, we had two such splits in 16 years and could easily see more in this decade. Voter suppression exacerbates the problem and may well have made the difference in 2000 or 2016, or both. And because the constitution does not say that the electors need to be chosen by the popular vote in each state, those unaccountable Republican state legislatures could even decouple their electors from the vote counts in their states next time around, if it looks like they're going to lose.

All of these problems compound in the Supreme Court, where justices are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. We have nine justices, appointed over the course of nine presidential terms by presidents chosen in nine elections (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020). In only two of those elections (1988 and 2004) did the popular vote go to the Republican, and in only four of those terms did a Republican occupy the White House (two for Bush II and one each for Bush I and Trump). Yet because Republicans won more terms than the public wanted them to, and because the Republican Senate was able to sabotage Merrick Garland's nomination, there are now six right-wing justices on the court. And these justices are issuing a litany of radical decisions with no fear of accountability; Dobbs is only the one that has received the most attention. Thomas felt free to rule against the release of January 6 documents that could implicate his own wife in the coup attempt, because he knows that it would be impossible for the Senate to impeach him for his blatant conflict of interest.

The state legislatures, the Senate, and the court can act with impunity because the Republican Party has weaponized the undemocratic aspects of our system to insulate itself from the will of the people. I honestly think the system is starting to break down.

So yes, of course a Republican trifecta without a filibuster would be dangerous. But any Republican victory is dangerous, and because they've insulated themselves from accountability on so many levels, much of what they want can be accomplished by crazy decisions in state legislatures, backed up by crazy court decisions. And if they do have the trifecta and really, really need the filibuster out of the way, they can eliminate it themselves, with little fear that they'll ever need it themselves again.

We need to reform the system, now, before their stranglehold is so complete that elections become meaningless.
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Re: RvW Overturned - Abortions Now Illegal

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

How can ‘we’ reform the system when, as you aptly explained, the system is designed to keep the GOP squarely in minority rule?

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