Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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Binger
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Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

Post by Binger »

This is a big deal. Whether one is liberal or not, Democrat or not, this is a big deal. This is not a fall on a bike. This is a real thing.

The excuses are falling apart under scrutiny. The reserves are being used and that is not working. The Saudis are not playing along, despite the begging. Germany is buying Russian coal. Europe is hurting. The US has sent a shot across the bow to the energy exploration, transportation, oilfield service and refinery subsectors that "there will be no more drilling on federal lands, period." Executive orders are doing their job by curtailing capital investments and incentivizing returns on existing leases and production. The EO's are doing EXACTLY what they were intended to do.

The video of Macron informing Biden will be the lasting image of this trip. It will be the equivalent of one Bush's vomit and another Bush's shoe.

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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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What percentage of oil wells, leased to or owned by American companies on American land, are in full production?

- Doc
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Binger
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:35 am
What percentage of oil wells, leased to or owned by American companies on American land, are in full production?

- Doc
I don't know. I would guess it is greater than zero and less than 100. And what difference does that make? We are not comparable to OPEC when it comes to ramping up and ramping down. You can see this in the graphs in the last release of data. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/ This will be updated in December.

Production has more to do with rig count than anything else. Offshore rigs are being scrapped all across the globe. New rigs are not being built. That is largely a function of capital budgets, lease availability and lease expirations. Obviously, infrastructure, including transportation and refining, are huge factors in the production. Cancelling and threatening to cancel leases and infrastructure jobs will curb production. That is the point. These cancellations do not curb demand, they reduce supply. Again, that is the intent of the cancelled/prohibited infrastructure.

If a producing well is not at production capacity, but shipping and refining are limited, it is at effective capacity. Additionally, when a company knows that leases will not be available or they could be cancelled entirely, they will not produce their existing leases to zero and put themselves out of business. These are generalizations, obviously. It is not a generalization to say that the oilfield services (drilling, transportation, fluids, proppants, seismic, BOP's and more) are capital intensive and labor intensive and cannot be ramped up by flipping a switch or making an executive order. That is why the shot across the bow and immediate cancellations were so relevant and why the consequences were so obvious.
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canpakes
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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“According to analysis of Bureau of Land Management (BLM) data, nearly half (47.4 percent) of the 20.9 million actively leased acres in the West are currently sitting idle, generating only $1.50 per acre for taxpayers annually and preventing those lands from being actively managed for conservation and recreation.”

I’m sure that if we just let the oil companies have everything they wanted today, that they’d be shipping tanker after tanker of fresh gasoline to market by next week, and the price of gasoline would fall dramatically. That’s how it all works, right? ; )
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canpakes
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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The Biden administration will resume federal oil and gas leasing in June with a large reduction in acres available for drilling and a historic royalty rate increase. On April 18, 2022, the Bureau of Land Management (“BLM”) issued notices of oil and gas lease sales for approximately 144,000 acres of federal land in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, Montana, Utah and Wyoming. BLM scheduled the June 2022 onshore lease sales nearly a year after the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana enjoined the Biden administration’s self-described “pause” of the federal oil and gas leasing program—an action taken pursuant to Executive Order 14008: “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad.”

The June 2022 leasing decisions are notably different from prior sales. First, BLM eliminated 80% of the federal acreage originally nominated for competitive leasing (473 of the 646 previously identified parcels) following environmental review. The available acreage largely focuses on parcels where oil and gas development has already occurred.
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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canpakes wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:10 am
The Biden administration will resume federal oil and gas leasing in June with a large reduction in acres available for drilling and a historic royalty rate increase. On April 18, 2022, the Bureau of Land Management (“BLM”) issued notices of oil and gas lease sales for approximately 144,000 acres of federal land in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, Montana, Utah and Wyoming. BLM scheduled the June 2022 onshore lease sales nearly a year after the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana enjoined the Biden administration’s self-described “pause” of the federal oil and gas leasing program—an action taken pursuant to Executive Order 14008: “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad.”

The June 2022 leasing decisions are notably different from prior sales. First, BLM eliminated 80% of the federal acreage originally nominated for competitive leasing (473 of the 646 previously identified parcels) following environmental review. The available acreage largely focuses on parcels where oil and gas development has already occurred.
That is hysterical. How about that EO 14008?

80 percent of leases were eliminated and the rest have already been produced. And it is onshore only. Yeah. that's the whole point. Whoever was responsible for this announcement does not want anything produced.
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canpakes
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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Binger wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:48 am
80 percent of leases were eliminated and the rest have already been produced. And it is onshore only. Yeah. that's the whole point. Whoever was responsible for this announcement does not want anything produced.

Meanwhile, 47% of leased lands in the West still sit unused.

As for offshore - tell me again how much more we’d have right now if we approved ‘x’ number of offshore leases. Note the highlighted line on the image below.
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Kukulkan
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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canpakes wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:21 am
Meanwhile, 47% of leased lands in the West still sit unused.
I am not well versed in this topic but that seems highly unproductive to me. What purpose would it serve to just sit on these leases?
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canpakes
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

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This is a pretty fair article that gives more details on the leasing situation, and exposes why simplistic claims such as, “Biden did it!!” do not represent a balanced analysis.

Only about 10% of domestic oil and gas drilling occurs on federal land. The rest happens on private and state property, Ed Hirs, energy fellow at the University of Houston, said. At the end of 2021, there were 9,173 approved applications for drilling permits on federal and tribal lands, according to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM).

Jennifer Pett with the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), which represents independent oil and natural gas producers, told VERIFY that more than 9,000 approved permits aren’t producing oil and gas right now. Joshua Axelrod with the National Resources Defense Council also confirmed that more than 9,000 approved permits are unused.

However, that doesn’t mean oil companies could just start drilling right now and produce oil and gas.

According to the IPAA, some of these leases are going through a “complex regulatory process or are held up in litigation.” Western Energy Alliance, which represents hundreds of companies involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, says on its website that it is defending more than 2,200 leases in court, most of which cannot be developed while the cases are ongoing.

Hirs explained that a variety of factors can halt the oil drilling process for unused permits.

“Federal leases…are subject to environmental studies. They're also subject to lawsuits filed by neighbors, by municipalities, by counties and state governments. And so it's become a more arduous process,” he said.

Companies often need to have separate permits secured for multiple well sites before they can bring in an oil rig, the IPAA says. But just because the government approves the permits doesn’t guarantee the well will produce oil and gas, as some never do. This means approved permits may go unused.
“If you've gone, like most companies do, and filed a dozen or two dozen [permits] at a time, and your first well turns out to be a dry hole, you're not going to go ahead and drill the rest of those,” Hirs said.

It’s true that companies will sometimes sit on unused permits until it makes more financial sense. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that since there isn’t a penalty for not using a drilling permit, some companies wait to begin drilling until oil prices are high enough to make it worth their while. One operator told the GAO that they would add a drilling rig if the price of oil increases and may suspend one if it decreases. Another said a permit may go unused if oil and gas prices are too low for them to turn a profit.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges for oil companies, too. Some are facing a six-month waiting period for piping materials needed to drill and are still short-staffed after layoffs spurred by the pandemic-induced drop in demand for oil, Pett said
https://www.verifythis.com/article/news ... 1cdf2acb3f
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canpakes
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Re: Macron is not dumb. This is BAD!

Post by canpakes »

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“Production has more to do with rig count than anything else.”
- a fellow on the Internet

Rig count has been trending up over the last 6 months.
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