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Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:08 am
by MeDotOrg
While the fog of war still surrounds the battlefield, it appears that the Russians are not only losing territory, soldiers are deserting and dropping their equipment. U.S. 4 star-General McCafferty said the HIMARS rocket systems are making a big difference.
Opposition to the war is seeping into Russian consciousness, despite Putin's efforts to squash it. As the war goes badly, the country is divided between those who would double-down on the invasion and those who would pull out*. Hard-line Nationalists are now talking about using nuclear weapons to achieve their goals.
When planning the invasion, I'm pretty sure Putin did not develop an exit strategy in case he lost. Can he remain in power if Russia retreats? Right now Russia is like a wounded apex predator, still unpredictable and dangerous.
Right now I bet there are boatloads of intelligence analysts trying to figure out what Putin does next.
* Pull out Vlad, like your father should have!
Re: Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2022 1:04 am
by Laman Knight
My wild-assed guess is Ukraine's good fortune on the battlefield lately makes Russia's use of tactical nuclear weaponry more likely.
Re: Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2022 1:16 am
by Laman Knight
MeDotOrg wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:08 am
While the fog of war still surrounds the battlefield, it appears that the Russians are not only losing territory, soldiers are deserting and dropping their equipment. U.S. 4 star-General McCafferty said the HIMARS rocket systems are making a big difference.
Opposition to the war is seeping into Russian consciousness, despite Putin's efforts to squash it. As the war goes badly, the country is divided between those who would double-down on the invasion and those who would pull out*. Hard-line Nationalists are now talking about using nuclear weapons to achieve their goals.
When planning the invasion, I'm pretty sure Putin did not develop an exit strategy in case he lost. Can he remain in power if Russia retreats? Right now Russia is like a wounded apex predator, still unpredictable and dangerous.
Right now I bet there are boatloads of intelligence analysts trying to figure out what Putin does next.
* Pull out Vlad, like your father should have!
"Wounded apex predator" is about right. Putin is by nature a fighter and will therefore choose to go down fighting. "Collective Putin" as they call the establishment that made Putin possible in the first place may find a way to get rid of him but the conflict between NATO and Russia would continue and likely as not Ukraine would remain the proxy for that conflict. The Russians that I know, and I mean the kind that used to be KGB and the like believe that western analysts are by very disposition unable to actually read Putin and Company. Why? We in the West just can't imagine a Russia without a real opposition to Putin developing among the Russian populace. And yet so far that opposition has not risen in any meaningful way.
Re: Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Posted: Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:00 pm
by MeDotOrg
Interesting
interview with General David Petraeus, former head of CENTCOM. He says that "Russia is in a truly disasterous situation at this time." As far as replacing troops, the training and morale of those troops, the equipment, leadership and logistics supplied, the advantage goes to the Ukrainians in virtually every area. Ukrainian power is growing and Russian power is steadily diminishing. Time is not on the side of the Russians, and this is where the wounded apex predator analogy kicks in. Petraeus thinks tactical nukes would ultimately do nothing to improve the balance of power.
Russia has lost more troops in 6 months in Ukraine than it lost in 10 years in Afghanistan. The defeat in Afghanistan was the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union.
I'd be a liar if I said I knew what was going to happen. Putin can do little to soften the defeat, and a defeat is inexorably coming.
Re: Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Posted: Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:49 am
by Gunnar
Many of the Russian soldiers are so demoralized and opposed by the speed and effectiveness of that counteroffensive, they are refusing to fight, surrendering, retreating in mass while leaving huge amounts of weapons and material behind, and in some cases even selling their military equipment for profit rather than using it themselves.
Russian commanders are selling the army's brand-new equipment!
There is a joke going around that Russia has become the chief supplier to Ukraine of military equipment, weapons and ammunition!
Another joke is that the fastest animals alive are now fleeing Russian soldiers.