Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

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Gadianton
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Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Gadianton »

I came across this yesterday, it's not the first study of its kind and its entirely unsurprising, but I have some severe disagreements with the takeaways, and have a suggestion for making a study like this better.

Conservatives more susceptible to believing falsehoods

The title of the report is inaccurate, in my opinion, and my biggest gripe is here.
For example, participants rated this true statement that received widespread social media engagement when it came out: “Investigators for the DHS Office of the Inspector General have identified poor conditions in several Texas migrant facilities, including extreme overcrowding and serious health risks.”

Results showed that 54% of Democrats correctly said that the statement was “definitely true” – compared to only 18% of Republicans.

Another statement – a false one – was “While serving as Sec. of State, Hillary Clinton colluded with Russia, selling 20% of the U.S. uranium supply to that country in exchange for donations to the Clinton Foundation.”

Here, only 2% of Democrats said this was “definitely true,” but 41% of Republicans did.
Unsurprising, of course. What is surprising is that what's going on isn't obvious to them.
Conservatives and liberals were equally good at detecting truths and falsehoods when most true stories were labeled politically neutral.
Not surprising to me but it might be surprising to some.

The study's creator says:
Garrett wrote:We show that the media environment is shaping people’s ability to do this very basic, fundamental task. Democracy depends on people being able to tell the difference between what is true and false and it falters when people have difficulty agreeing on what’s real,” he said.
I totally disagree.

Judging by the quotes I've provided it's clear the study needs to be redone. The basic format of the study seems okay, but they are going to need some funding, they need to incentivize getting the right answers. They need to pay people for getting the right answers. Where the study will be most informative will be with lesser-educated people who could use a few extra bucks. Some people need to be offered a dollar for every correct political answer, another group offered 5$, another 10$, and if funding is available, go up to at least 50$ per correct political answer.

From what I'm hearing, Rudy Giuliani is having an easier time differentiating between truths and falsehoods along with his changing incentives for believing certain political claims.
We saw that viral political falsehoods tended to benefit conservatives, while truths tended to favor liberals. That makes it a lot harder for conservatives to avoid misperceptions,” Garrett said
Again, this guy needs a talking to. We don't know the bolded yet, because we don't know whether they are "misperceiving" something or intentionally answering contrary to what they really believe. The mean way of putting it is that conservatives instinctively know when to lie in order to promote their common cause. A nicer way to put would be to point out that conservatives tend to be religious in nature and "truth" in religion has different meanings. "Truth Social" isn't called truth social over concern with truth in the scientific sense, but truth in the "my truth" sense, the personal testimony sense. It's a "free speech" kind of truth, something is "true" in a sense if the person passionately believes it -- or at least passionately says it.

To use a metaphor from the world of investing, we might say liberals are more like value investors while conservatives are more like momentum investors. The hope, of course, is that fundamentals win in the long run, but we've seen from the investing world itself just how powerful meme trading can be, and like reddit users piling on Game Stop and breaking markets, conservatives may very well break democracy before reality settles all scores. Don't underestimate the power of momentum.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

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Dean Robbers, if I recall correctly, there is such a study. I have no idea where I saw it. My recollection is that offering a reward for correct answers had a substantial effect.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Some Schmo »

I think it just boils down to education, critical thinking skills, and a real desire for the truth at the cost of your own comfort.

If you're willing to believe one unsubstantiated claim, you're susceptible to them all.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Moksha »

I am uncertain whether conservatives believe all their own disinformation, but they are more than happy to spread it.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Alphus and Omegus »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun Jul 09, 2023 8:30 pm
Dean Robbers, if I recall correctly, there is such a study. I have no idea where I saw it. My recollection is that offering a reward for correct answers had a substantial effect.
There have been more than a few studies about the idea that people might give false answers to social scientists. (The word "false" can mean either incorrect or misleading, two very different definitions.)

Unfortunately there are many possible reasons for such behavior but the most common are 1) "desirability bias," respondents trying to give an answer which they don't believe but ascertain the questioner/society wants to hear. 2) "expressive responding," respondents provide a deliberately incorrect answer as a tribal marker to signify loyalty to one or more identity groups. 3) sincere belief, respondents give an incorrect response which they actually believe to be true.

Providing payment for correct answer makes a study vulnerable to incentivizing people to engage in behavior number 1 above when they might really want to engage in 2 or 3.

Republicans have been shown in many studies to have more susceptibility to fake news. The jury is still out about how many actually believe it and whether their motivations differ depending on the false claim.

This study used betting to try to suss out why Republicans claim to believe Trump's easily disproven lies about his election loss. It found about half of Republicans were sure it was true and half were uncertain.

https://m-graham.com/papers/GrahamYair_BigLie.pdf

This is another recent one that does try to look at misinformation sharing and ideology.

https://psyarxiv.com/8fkpy
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Analytics »

I think I get your point, Dean Robbers. Obviously false truth claims in politics are like obviously false truth claims in religion; while there are some true believers, others say they believe the obviously false things because saying that is what members of the in-group do. But do they really believe it deep down? Not necessarily.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Gadianton »

Alpha wrote:This study used betting to try to suss out why Republicans claim to believe Trump's easily disproven lies about his election loss. It found about half of Republicans were sure it was true and half were uncertain.
I put vaccine and election information in a separate category than the example I cited of Hilary and platinum bars or whatever it was. I don't recall hearing about that example so I assume it was either just made up by the test team or taken from an obscure source rather than from Fox News. There is just no way that 40% of Republicans can possibly really believe that.

what election and vaccines or immunology have in common are complicated processes with a lot of moving parts, and it's very easy to highlight one part of the process, magnify it, and show concerns over it in a way that makes someone who is unfamiliar with the process and no easy options for independently unraveling it, and not to mention the vested interest in the shocking claim being true, to be taken in.

A lot of people voted to their belief in Covid misinfo by really acting as if it either wasn't a serious risk, or preventative measures don't work, or quack cures do work.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Res Ipsa »

Alphus and Omegus wrote:
Wed Jul 12, 2023 9:31 am
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun Jul 09, 2023 8:30 pm
Dean Robbers, if I recall correctly, there is such a study. I have no idea where I saw it. My recollection is that offering a reward for correct answers had a substantial effect.
There have been more than a few studies about the idea that people might give false answers to social scientists. (The word "false" can mean either incorrect or misleading, two very different definitions.)

Unfortunately there are many possible reasons for such behavior but the most common are 1) "desirability bias," respondents trying to give an answer which they don't believe but ascertain the questioner/society wants to hear. 2) "expressive responding," respondents provide a deliberately incorrect answer as a tribal marker to signify loyalty to one or more identity groups. 3) sincere belief, respondents give an incorrect response which they actually believe to be true.

Providing payment for correct answer makes a study vulnerable to incentivizing people to engage in behavior number 1 above when they might really want to engage in 2 or 3.

Republicans have been shown in many studies to have more susceptibility to fake news. The jury is still out about how many actually believe it and whether their motivations differ depending on the false claim.

This study used betting to try to suss out why Republicans claim to believe Trump's easily disproven lies about his election loss. It found about half of Republicans were sure it was true and half were uncertain.

https://m-graham.com/papers/GrahamYair_BigLie.pdf

This is another recent one that does try to look at misinformation sharing and ideology.

https://psyarxiv.com/8fkpy
Thanks for posting those papers. Knowing the name of the effect helped me find the older research I looked at. This paper is pretty typical. https://www.nber.org/system/files/worki ... w19080.pdf
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Alphus and Omegus »

Gadianton wrote:
Wed Jul 12, 2023 6:15 pm
Alpha wrote:This study used betting to try to suss out why Republicans claim to believe Trump's easily disproven lies about his election loss. It found about half of Republicans were sure it was true and half were uncertain.
I put vaccine and election information in a separate category than the example I cited of Hilary and platinum bars or whatever it was. I don't recall hearing about that example so I assume it was either just made up by the test team or taken from an obscure source rather than from Fox News. There is just no way that 40% of Republicans can possibly really believe that.

what election and vaccines or immunology have in common are complicated processes with a lot of moving parts, and it's very easy to highlight one part of the process, magnify it, and show concerns over it in a way that makes someone who is unfamiliar with the process and no easy options for independently unraveling it, and not to mention the vested interest in the shocking claim being true, to be taken in.

A lot of people voted to their belief in Covid misinfo by really acting as if it either wasn't a serious risk, or preventative measures don't work, or quack cures do work.
The research of which I'm aware is inconclusive about deliberate or accidental belief in falsehoods. I think your idea that it depends is likely correct. I would say however that as Trump's lies have become more central to Republican identity, it's likely that many hardcore Republicans will be unable to distinguish their motivations for believing falsehoods. Watching House members put forward totally idiotic ideas and accusations against the FBI director today shows also that it's not just a base-level affliction either.
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Re: Conservatives and "believing falsehoods"

Post by Res Ipsa »

Alphus and Omegus wrote:
Thu Jul 13, 2023 12:49 am
Gadianton wrote:
Wed Jul 12, 2023 6:15 pm


I put vaccine and election information in a separate category than the example I cited of Hilary and platinum bars or whatever it was. I don't recall hearing about that example so I assume it was either just made up by the test team or taken from an obscure source rather than from Fox News. There is just no way that 40% of Republicans can possibly really believe that.

what election and vaccines or immunology have in common are complicated processes with a lot of moving parts, and it's very easy to highlight one part of the process, magnify it, and show concerns over it in a way that makes someone who is unfamiliar with the process and no easy options for independently unraveling it, and not to mention the vested interest in the shocking claim being true, to be taken in.

A lot of people voted to their belief in Covid misinfo by really acting as if it either wasn't a serious risk, or preventative measures don't work, or quack cures do work.
The research of which I'm aware is inconclusive about deliberate or accidental belief in falsehoods. I think your idea that it depends is likely correct. I would say however that as Trump's lies have become more central to Republican identity, it's likely that many hardcore Republicans will be unable to distinguish their motivations for believing falsehoods. Watching House members put forward totally idiotic ideas and accusations against the FBI director today shows also that it's not just a base-level affliction either.
Just looking at some papers today, it looks like it really depends on the issue. The explanatory theories include genuine belief, motivated reasoning, expressive response, and trolling. Which theory word best depends on whether we are talking about the big lie or whether Obama is the anti-Christ.
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