House Republicans in Disarray

[Res Ipsa]

The House just removed McCarthy as Speaker. No other business can proceed until a new Speaker is elected. The House is now in recess.

This is what happens when you give a small, extreme faction control of government.

[honorentheos]

Being candid, I'm disappointed in the House Democrats. Participating in punishing the closest thing to bipartisanship we have seen in the House is not good for the health of our government.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

The Magats are trying to take over their party. Unless long-time powerbrokers in the GOP are willing to hand over control to insane people, they better get busy, fast.

Edit: watch them nominate Gaetz. Lol.

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

The Magats are trying to take over their party. Unless long-time powerbrokers in the GOP are willing to hand over control to insane people, they better get busy, fast.

Edit: watch them nominate Gaetz. Lol.

- Doc

Gaetz is a bomb thrower, not a leader. No way in hell he wants the job. And eight votes won't be enough to elect him.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

The Magats are trying to take over their party. Unless long-time powerbrokers in the GOP are willing to hand over control to insane people, they better get busy, fast.

Edit: watch them nominate Gaetz. Lol.

- Doc

Gaetz is a bomb thrower, not a leader. No way in hell he wants the job. And eight votes won't be enough to elect him.

What's your hot take?

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

Gaetz is a bomb thrower, not a leader. No way in hell he wants the job. And eight votes won't be enough to elect him.

What's your hot take?

- Doc

Beyond disarray, I really got nothin. One of the R leaders said that the House is in recess until next Tuesday. A couple stated that McCarthy will not run. That says to me neither side has a plan at all.

[honorentheos]

So, big picture time.

It seems likely we will see one of two scenarios. One which is very unlikely, is the House votes to change the election rules to require only a plurality of votes to become the next speaker. I only see this happening if McCarthy absolutely refuses to give in, forcing the opposition to decide if they are willing to let Jefferies become Speaker rather than McCarthy take the gavel. I don't know what the odds are, but my instincts say he'd eventually cave to pressure if there is no chance he gets the votes...and I think that's the case.

The other, most likely scenario is bad. That being, the opposition to McCarthy ultimately succeed in forcing the rest of the party to accept their rule changes AND a Speaker who gives them the outsized influence on committee assignments, House rules and business, and defines their priorities in a way that tilts the boat further in the extremist MAGA direction. Slim but unlikely possibilities McCarthy stays in and manages to get holdouts to concede in this direction himself. But he'd have to be willing to be Speaker in name only and really, really denigrate himself to get there and I think he'd ultimately drop out or go nuclear with the plurality change first.

I think there is practically a zero percent chance a moderate Republicans becomes Speaker. The margin is too slim, the entrenched have no incentive to give in. Shamelessness has it's advantages...

I'm feeling dark about this the more I watch. I think the odds are this grabs the Overton window and yanks it hard. Plus, if they end up successful, expect the next Democrat majority to find itself in the same situation. This genie won't go back in the bottle easily.

So we got the worst outcome in January and Gaezt has activated the killswitch he had demanded be installed in McCarthy's speakership. It seems like the last nine months were just a delay now. After being Speaker in name only, he is now dropping out and we get to pick up where vote 14 had been heading.

[Manetho]

Being candid, I'm disappointed in the House Democrats. Participating in punishing the closest thing to bipartisanship we have seen in the House is not good for the health of our government.

It would have made sense for the Democrats to support McCarthy in exchange for some concessions — if McCarthy had proven himself a trustworthy negotiating partner. Instead, he habitually alternated between trying to look reasonable and pandering to the fanatics in his caucus. The latest example is in just the past week. He made the deal with Democrats to keep the government running for another 45 days and then, knowing that his speakership was in jeopardy and he might need Democrats' support, went on TV and blamed the Democrats for the close call with the budget. That indicates that he wanted the support of the far right more than that of the Democrats, and he would have continued to give in to the far right if he had remained speaker.

Plus, if they end up successful, expect the next Democrat majority to find itself in the same situation. This genie won't go back in the bottle easily.

I know this remark is from a few months back, but I really don't understand it. Were you suggesting the progressives in the House would do to a future Democratic speaker what the Freedom Caucus did to McCarthy? Because that isn't consistent with how the progressives have behaved. They're not perfect, but I think they've struck a reasonably good balance between pulling leftward when possible and voting with the rest of the Democrats when necessary. And they've certainly seen how the Republicans have been humiliated every time the Freedom Caucus pitches a tantrum. They'd be fools to act the same way.

[Res Ipsa]

Being candid, I'm disappointed in the House Democrats. Participating in punishing the closest thing to bipartisanship we have seen in the House is not good for the health of our government.

I’m not. He broke his deal with the Democrats at the time of the debt ceiling vote. He supported a frivolous and unfounded impeachment inquiry against a Democratic President. He falsely accused Democrats of trying to engineer the government shutdown. He never approached the Democrats to discuss fixing the deep dysfunction on the R side of the house.

Democrats are notoriously less likely to vote as a block than Republicans, yet Nancy Pelosi was able to govern the House effectively with the same numerical margin that McCarthy had. That contrast will be an effective argument come election time that the current Republican Party is simply incapable of governing the country.

I think there’s an overarching problem that this action helps address. A diverse country requires compromise to ruin effectively. The current generation of Republicans has turned compromise into a four-letter word. Both sides need to recognize that, in order for the actual will of the people to be implemented, the Hastert rule has to go. Otherwise, a tiny minority of Representatives can and will prevent the passage of legislation that a majority of representatives would vote to pass. As things are today, a bare majority of Rs in the House behave as if the only represent Republicans and no one else.

I just about gave myself whiplash when I heard Gaetz describe the notion of a compromise bill that would increase border security in exchange for continued support for Ukraine as if were the same as selling one’s soul to the devil. That’s what sane people recognize as compromise.

I think Democrats may well have backed McCarthy if he had kept his word and had not turned on them like a snake when they rescued him from a Freedom Caucus government shutdown. Ambushing Ds with a massive CR and demanding they vote without reading it ain’t anything close to bi-partisanship.

I think the smartest thing the Ds could do is agree to vote for a member of the so-called problem solvers caucus for speaker, making it clear their support is contingent on, you know, solving problems.

[honorentheos]

I have to concede I was not aware of the comments he made after the Saturday stop gap bill essentially telling Dems they were to blame for trying to shut down the government as well as their help in staving off the Gaetz gaggle wasn't wanted. So fair points, he made his bed.

I don't think we are better off for this by any stretch still, and it reads to me like McCarthy did what he had been expected to do in January if he couldn't get the votes to become speaker.