Where does the Public Stand?

[Vēritās]

Apparently recent polls show Trump beating Biden in the general election by a mile. But then on the flip side Democrats just won huge victories in key states.

What gives?

[Some Schmo]

I don't think we can trust polls anymore. People will tell pollsters one thing but vote on what's really important to them.

No, I don't think Biden is doing the best job ever, but if women's rights are on the ballot, I know what I'm voting for.

Between the abortion issue and impending fascism, I think democracy is winning. Only Republicans are deluding themselves as the party of freedom. Everyone else knows the truth about them.

And I don't think the right (conservatives writ large) is as off their rocker as the vocal morons on the internet would have you believe. There are multiple signs MAGA is shrinking.

I'll say this: there is a major reckoning coming for the leaderless GOP when Trump chokes on a Big Mac and shuffles off his mortal coil.

[canpakes]

If the poll is being conducted by phone, I’d consider the results to be pretty meaningless. Compared to an older segment of the population that might still be taking calls on landlines, the last thing that most folks in younger age groups are prone to do is answer calls coming in on their cells from unknown numbers. That difference in behavior could skew poll results given how younger voters trend Democratic, leading to their input missing from the polls but showing up in the actual voting results.

[Res Ipsa]

I think head to head polls that include the president this far out from an election are more of an approval/disapproval vote on the president than they are affirmative support for the other candidate. There are lots of conservatives and liberals who disapprove of Biden’s job performance, albeit for wildly different reasons. Picking Trump in a head to head poll with Biden is a costless way to express dissatisfaction with Biden.

Voting, however, is not a costless way of expressing disapproval of a candidate, as some on the far left hopefully learned in 2016. As the election gets closer and seems more real, I expect those easy disapproval responses to gradually go away, giving us a better look. The victories by Dems Tuesday say to me that the majority of folks reject what the Rs have come to stand for — even in some reddish states.

Or the Middle East could turn everything topsy turvey.

[Moksha]

Apparently recent polls show Trump beating Biden in the general election by a mile. But then on the flip side Democrats just won huge victories in key states.

What gives?

The poll also found that any Democrat other than Biden could beat Trump. I'm partial to Pete Buttigieg because he is smarter and more honest than anyone else.

I think voters rightly view Biden as getting old, just like Trump. However, unlike Trump, he is not subject to uncontrollable temper tantrums and can understand his daily briefings. Still, the country would be in better hands with Buttigieg.