DiscussMormonism.com

Please help, I don't understand how to use this tracker. I'll link the current Lichtman livestream and if any one can tell me how to actually use the tracker myself I'd really appreciate it. Do I have to figure out where the keys stand myself? Is Lichtman the only person who is capable of determining the keys? Can YOU determine them? I played with it and still don't get how it's supposed to work. Listening to Lichtman go through them while my brain slowly liquefies. I'm too much of an absolute dunce to do this. I fail at 13 Keys Tracker.

Can you do this? Do you have his book?If you hover over the keys it shows Lichtman's answers. Is that the whole purpose? To follow Lichtman?

13 Keys Tracker
https://www.13keystracker.com/

Lichtman live stream with information at the beginning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuS98AcKDZQ

If you watch the livestream as I did, he gives a clear explanation of what they mean. All but a few are set and so it's just a matter of those controversial keys. The military victory key would be an example of a notoriously difficult key to decide on in a world increasingly in multiple random wars. But if you watch his video all the way through, he belabors all of them enough to empower you to track your own key estimates. He will likely be updating his estimates as time goes on, so you could just follow his explanations, but nothing stops you from doing your own work and disagreeing with him. He's very intent on being right above saying his fave will win.

I have mixed feelings about the keys. I think they are a great idea. I like the idea that fundamentals matter. That democracy manages to move with fundamentals is a positive thing if true, as compared to democracy being a free-for-all where the winner is nothing more than the person who figured out how to message in the most creative ways, where outright lies matter more than facts if they can be made to go viral. The keys are something I want to believe work. His track record for using them is good. However, we're still looking at a tiny number of sample points, there just haven't been very many elections since 1984. Also, to his discredit, he misrepresents the keys lately as predicting every election since 1984 when he predicted John Kerry would win. He has an excuse for that, I can't remember what it is, but when I first heard about the keys, it was "every election but one" and now that "but one" doesn't get brought up unless somebody else brings it up.

When other heavy hitters believed Biden needed to drop out of course I thought about the keys, while at the same time hoped that other big players on the inside, including the NYT, had good reasons for panicking and weren't just worried about the pride or whatever. The landing has been way more favorable than I predicted so there's hope.

And I thought this thread was going to be about pianos.

Will you please give us some background information as to what in the living Hell you’re talking about??

Dr. Shades wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:46 pm

Will you please give us some background information as to what in the living Hell you’re talking about??

Will you please give is some idea of who the hell you're talking to?

Why does it say Kamala Harris will win, did Joe biden step down?

Jersey Girl wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:49 pm

Dr. Shades wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:46 pm

Will you please give us some background information as to what in the living Hell you’re talking about??

Will you please give is some idea of who the hell you're talking to?

You.

Dr. Shades wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:46 pm

Will you please give us some background information as to what in the living Hell you’re talking about??

I think Jersey Girl likes this professor and his method of predicting winners of presidential elections which likely means Harris will be come president.

https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/lichtman.cfm

For me I'll just listen to someone who really understands american politics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JIlRsRQYfM

IWMP wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 9:11 pm

Why does it say Kamala Harris will win, did Joe biden step down?

Bring in the new Kamala type clown.

(BLUNDER WOMAN … CACKLING QUEEN)

Dr. Shades wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 9:40 pm

Jersey Girl wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:49 pm

Will you please give is some idea of who the hell you're talking to?

You.

Use the second link that's right in the OP. The one that says "information". That's why it's there.