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Hurricane Milton
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:30 pm
by Res Ipsa
Hurricane modeling has gotten very good when it comes to predicting the paths of storms. Where it is still having problems is handling rapid intensification. Over the weekend, the predictions were generally for peak wind strength to be Cat 3, possibly Cat 4. Early this morning, it hit Cat 4. I saw a prediction made at 2:00 a.m. EDT that it was likely to become a Cat 5 Tuesday or Wednesday. It just became a Cat 5. The hurricane modeling has not caught up yet with the warmer water in the Gulf caused by global warming.
The wind speed is strong now because the eye at the storm's center is so small. Like a skater who can spin faster by pulling their arms in, the smaller size of the eye means that the air goes faster around it. It is expected to undergo what's called an eye-wall replacement cycle, during which the current pinhole eye will collapse and then reform as a larger eye. That's good news and bad news. The wind speed will drop, but the storm will grow in size affect a larger area.
During hurricane season, I follow a hurricane expert named Jeff Masters. He currently blogs at Yale Climate Connections. Here's his recent update.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024 ... est-coast/
If you live in, or have friends or family in, an evacuation zone, this ain't one to try and ride out. DeSantis has warned that storm debris from Helene that isn't yet cleaned up will become missles in the wind, and he ain't kidding. There has been a ton of building in the Tampa area since the last direct hit from a strong storm, so experience with past storms doesn't apply. The ground will be saturated from rain, so if you live in a place that floods, be prepared.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2024 11:21 pm
by ajax18
You're right on this one. Helene already did $4200 in damage to my house. Couple that with days out of work and it's easy to dig yourself a hole that just keeps getting bigger. I don't understand why a 9 year old house still has 100+ year old trees around it. They should have all been cut down before the house was built. Now it would cost over $6k to cut them down.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2024 11:27 pm
by Res Ipsa
Yikes. I'm sorry to hear that, Ajax. I'm assuming that it's wind damage, so your HO policy should cover it. Be safe.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:47 am
by Jersey Girl
Res Ipsa wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 11:27 pm
Yikes. I'm sorry to hear that, Ajax. I'm assuming that it's wind damage, so your HO policy should cover it. Be safe.
I don't know if HO will cover his tree removal. The reason I say that is because we had a somewhat similar situation when our area experienced a wildfire. Home owners whose trees were burned and downed had to pay for their own tree removal. We're talking literal hundreds of 80-100 yo pines on one swath of land. Some paid for that service out of pocket and others are still going at it more than a decade later themselves. Removing even one tree is labor intensive. A whole property? Forget it.
After that fire State Farm came out to assess our property and home. They demanded that we cut down 12 trees and they didn't cover the cost of that. At that time it cost just $200 per tree. Something about landscaping that didn't inclued the trees. They did however cover the cost of replacement for 3 pots of burned roses. Thanks for being like a good neighbor there SF! (insert a tongue sticking out emoji here)
Oh and a multitude of HO insurance companies have dropped homeowners in this area entirely. Not SF...they're still hanging on out here.
So...I don't know that wherever Ajax is if his HO will cover it at all. FEMA will likely replace his roof and mitigate water damage to the house itself (let's say--I'm guessing) and I'm only going on FEMA's response to Hurricane Sandy with that assumption. Clean up and recovery from flood damage is a disgusting mess to deal with.
When I was a kid there was no such thing as hurricane/flood insurance and we lived in a flood zone. I don't think FEMA even existed back then. I do hope Ajax and fam can get some help digging out of the damage that they've already experienced.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:54 am
by Jersey Girl
Res Ipsa wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:30 pm
During hurricane season, I follow a hurricane expert named Jeff Masters. He currently blogs a Yale Climate Connections. Here's his recent update.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024 ... est-coast/
If you live in, or have friends or family in, an evacuation zone, this ain't one to try and ride out. DeSantis has warned that storm debris from Helene that isn't yet cleaned up will become missles in the wind, and he ain't kidding. There has been a ton of building in the Tampa area since the last direct hit from a strong storm, so experience with past storms doesn't apply. The ground will be saturated from rain, so if you live in a place that floods, be prepared.
I have family in and around St. Petersburg (right where it's expected to make landfall) and damn your link says they expect it to come in as a Category 5.
I also have friends in the Ft. Meyers area. I doubt that any of them will evacuate unless DeSantis has issued mandatory evacuation status. If it were me, I'd have been up in Birmingham, AL by nightfall tonight sitting tight in some nice hotel and to heck with what I left behind.
If you haven't been through a hurricane you can hardly grasp the concept of
storm surge. It's scary as hell. There's no stopping it and no way to
get away from it unless you've evacuated.
My thoughts and prayers (that's for Cam
) are with all in the area who have yet to even begin to mentally recover from the last hit much less physically and practically.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:19 am
by Moksha
The weather control machines would not dare send one directly at Ajax, would they?
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:20 am
by Res Ipsa
Jersey Girl wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:47 am
Res Ipsa wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 11:27 pm
Yikes. I'm sorry to hear that, Ajax. I'm assuming that it's wind damage, so your HO policy should cover it. Be safe.
I don't know if HO will cover his tree removal. The reason I say that is because we had a somewhat similar situation when our area experienced a wildfire. Home owners whose trees were burned and downed had to pay for their own tree removal. We're talking literal hundreds of 80-100 yo pines on one swath of land. Some paid for that service out of pocket and others are still going at it more than a decade later themselves. Removing even one tree is labor intensive. A whole property? Forget it.
After that fire State Farm came out to assess our property and home. They demanded that we cut down 12 trees and they didn't cover the cost of that. At that time it cost just $200 per tree. Something about landscaping that didn't inclued the trees. They did however cover the cost of replacement for 3 pots of burned roses. Thanks for being like a good neighbor there SF! (insert a tongue sticking out emoji here)
Oh and a multituedeof HO insurance companies have dropped homeowners in this area entirely. Not SF...they're still hanging on out here.
So...I don't know that wherever Ajax is if his HO will cover it at all. FEMA will likely replace his roof and mitigate water damage to the house itself (let's say--I'm guessing) and I'm only going on FEMA's response to Hurricane Sandy with that assumption. Clean up and recovery from flood damage is a disgusting mess to deal with.
When I was a kid there was no such thing as hurricane/flood insurance and we lived in a flood zone. I don't think FEMA even existed back then. I do hope Ajax and fam can get some help digging out of the damage that they've already experienced.
Some policies will cover removal of a tree that falls on or damages the home. It varies. Preventative removal is never covered.
The federal government started insuring flood risks in 1968 because private insurers wouldn’t take on the risk. Generally speaking, people buy insurance when banks require it to get a home loan. That’s determined by FEMA flood maps. People who are aware of their flood risk will also buy it. Sadly, floods don’t read the maps. I think I saw that 1% of the damaged homes in NC were insured against flood.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:26 am
by Res Ipsa
Jersey Girl wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:54 am
Res Ipsa wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:30 pm
During hurricane season, I follow a hurricane expert named Jeff Masters. He currently blogs a Yale Climate Connections. Here's his recent update.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024 ... est-coast/
If you live in, or have friends or family in, an evacuation zone, this ain't one to try and ride out. DeSantis has warned that storm debris from Helene that isn't yet cleaned up will become missles in the wind, and he ain't kidding. There has been a ton of building in the Tampa area since the last direct hit from a strong storm, so experience with past storms doesn't apply. The ground will be saturated from rain, so if you live in a place that floods, be prepared.
I have family in and around St. Petersburg (right where it's expected to make landfall) and damn your link says they expect it to come in as a Category 5.
I also have friends in the Ft. Meyers area. I doubt that any of them will evacuate unless DeSantis has issued mandatory evacuation status. If it were me, I'd have been up in Birmingham, AL by nightfall tonight sitting tight in some nice hotel and to heck with what I left behind.
If you haven't been through a hurricane you can hardly grasp the concept of
storm surge. It's scary as hell. There's no stopping it and no way to
get away from it unless you've evacuated.
My thoughts and prayers (that's for Cam
) are with all in the area who have yet to even begin to mentally recover from the last hit much less physically and practically.
I don’t think the prediction is category 5 for a couple of reasons. One is the expected eye wall replacement cycle. The other is cooler water as the storm approaches the coastline. But even a category 3 would be really dangerous.
There are mandatory evacuations in a few counties, including Pinella. It depends on which evacuation zone a home is located in. This afternoon, it was a, b, and c. Plus all mobile and manufactured homes (I think).
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:28 am
by Res Ipsa
Moksha wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:19 am
The weather control machines would not dare send one directly at Ajax, would they?
Naw, I called the weather control hotline number that’s on the back of my progressive membership card. They promised no direct hit on Ajax.
Re: Hurricane Milton
Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 5:41 am
by Jersey Girl