We should embrace the death of Democracy

[Gadianton]

This is a continuation of a discussion I had with honorentheos a few years ago about the contradictions of democracy, with some updates. The red sweep may be an opportunity to accept our only real choice, and that's not because we can't win again, but because we can't consistently win for the right reasons.

The main update to my thinking comes from Lichtman's election forecasting model, which I only became aware of in the last year. It looks like it failed big time and his career is over, but if there's something to rescue, we could say the model might work and blame his interpretation of the data. His model says that people vote incumbent during good times and revolt during bad times, which isn't a boon for democracy. His model doesn't say Trump will lose because he botched the pandemic, it says Trump will lose because there was a pandemic. A president has control over very little in his model. Let's call the model of fundamentals the A theory of elections. Perhaps it protects against dynasties, but that's about all.

The B theory of elections is what I've always assumed is true, and that is, elections are won by face recognition and messaging. The hype model. Arnold Schwarzenegger needs to start his campaign tomorrow. He needs to goad Trump, challenge him to meet in the ring. Imagine a campaign ad with Arnold as the Terminator walking towards the capitol, breaking down the door, and marching mechanically towards Trump's office with a t-shirt on that reads, "Patriot #3". He breaks down Trump's office door while Trump is on the phone with a cheeseburger, pulls him out of his chair and physically tosses him out of the White House. On his way out, he rescues a child from being hit by a golf cart full of incompetent security people, and safely returns the kid to his shouting MAGA parents that weren't watching. He wishes them a nice day and leaves. We can win with that, but we only win the bare minimum, as people are never able to rationally understand and vote on real policy.

We assume democracy is America's secret sauce. Physic's Guy, as a trustworthy outsider, has dropped plenty of posts criticizing the notion that we have the envy of the world in terms of government. I've long assumed America is great not because of ideology, but because giant untapped landmass protected by sea borders; there's been room for lots of people to come in and grab a piece of the pie. Well, if there's any pie left, the futures markets have dibs on it. The fall of "democracy" may be an illusion; the real fall is the fall of easy opportunity. Nothing had ever been secured by the wisdom of voters if the only models I'm aware of are right.

So how does democracy formally end? Res Ipsa linked a paper a while back floating the idea of an "Imperial Supreme Court." The point seemed to be that the Supreme Court sits back much like the Wizard of Oz, with power only because people believe it has power, and makes a call here and there. Trump, with the Senate and House behind him, and the Supreme Court along with its two exposed corrupt justices as a right-wing policy stamping machine, may force the issue. If he goes full project 2025, and I hope he does, then Blue states will be forced to ignore the directives. The most obvious case being a national ban on abortion.

The harder 2025 pushes for a dictatorship, the harder blue states will need to push back by ignoring Federal laws. It will be a civil war, but not with guns; a procedural war. Perhaps states themselves won't be the lines of division. I really don't know. The upshot is that blue is significantly the economic majority. I'm hoping the elites have been working on a plan to quietly secede. The military is perhaps the biggest toss-up, but I think we must hope that Trump tries to force non-compliance with military action. He can only stuff the top ranks so much and hope that down-rank leaders comply with the orders. If they don't, the Wizard of Oz is exposed.

The greatest danger is that Trump backs off, as I think he mainly wants to be in the limelight; he's old and tired, and he'll destroy lives here and there, but not achieve his goal to be dictator for life. We need him to try for a dictatorship -- now -- so that we're forced to make the break. Short of that, option 1 is gerrymandering will never allow another blue win, and so red will slowly take over everything. Option 2 is that we're able to muster the revolt in 2028 and win, but we're back to the failure of democracy to ever provide for the large-scale planning that needs to happen in order to move into a futuristic society where resources are scarce, and ingenuity is our only option forward. Automation will take over significantly, most people will live on universal income; there will be a ruling class of agreeable competitors, authoritarian, but not a dictatorship. It's not a future anyone is dying to live in, but the alternatives are democracy failing to provide for the realities of global warming and automation, leaving people to fend for themselves in a dying earth scenario, or a fascist dictatorship that squeezes out wealth for a few who enjoy it, die, and accelerate us to the dying earth scenario.

Maybe this is it. Maybe Gavin has some master plan with people behind the scenes.

[Bond]

Arnold wasn't born in America so he's not eligible.

Now Chris Evans a.k.a. Captain America...

[Some Schmo]

I like the Mark Cuban idea. He's been on a TV show, he's an actual successful businessman, and I think he sincerely cares about people. If America needs a celebrity to be their President (it's insane to me I have to type that clause), Cuban's a much better choice.

[Dr Exiled]

So you say you want a revolution .... how about freeing your mind instead and putting away such thoughts. It was only one election, not the end of democracy.

[Gadianton]

Arnold wasn't born in America so he's not eligible.

Now Chris Evans a.k.a. Captain America...

well, that sucks. Maybe that guy -- would be good to get someone from the 80s with absolute universal brand recognition.

[Gadianton]

So you say you want a revolution .... how about freeing your mind instead and putting away such thoughts. It was only one election, not the end of democracy.

Something tells me you didn't read the post, which is okay, it just means the comments don't address my issue. I'm fine freeing my mind, if you have something to say that could help free it or a link -- last time I asked, you sent me to one of the most bizarre conspiracy productions I've ever encountered, and then it doesn't appear that you ever studied the material yourself. At least, you never came back to report your assessment.

[Dr Exiled]

So you say you want a revolution .... how about freeing your mind instead and putting away such thoughts. It was only one election, not the end of democracy.

Something tells me you didn't read the post, which is okay, it just means the comments don't address my issue. I'm fine freeing my mind, if you have something to say that could help free it or a link -- last time I asked, you sent me to one of the most bizarre conspiracy productions I've ever encountered, and then it doesn't appear that you ever studied the material yourself. At least, you never came back to report your assessment.

Maybe you could enlighten me about the supposed bizarre conspiracy I produced for you. I don't remember anything of the sort.

I suspect you are overreacting to the election. Perhaps shut off Rachel Maddow and the other purveyors of what really appears to be a bizarre dystopian prediction. They're just pushing fear porn on you because their media is going away and your team doesn't have a good alternative at this point. Besides, Trump already showed how he governs and it was him trying to stamp his name on everything. We survived. It doesn't have to be a civil war or session just because your bogey man won. The democrats will probably win back the House and or Senate in 2026 thereby stopping whatever dictatorship you believe is coming. Then two years after that Trump will leave just like he did on Jan 20, 2021.

[Gadianton]

Maybe you could enlighten me about the supposed bizarre conspiracy I produced for you. I don't remember anything of the sort.

I believe it was a document I actually downloaded. I'll keep an eye out for it, if I find it, I'll let you know. You offered it to me as proof of the Biden's corruption network.

I suspect you are overreacting to the election.

Okay. But it is a topic that I've brought up over the years. Sure the election is relevant, but even if "we" won, the central concerns I've outlined don't go away.

Perhaps shut off Rachel Maddow and the other purveyors of what really appears to be a bizarre dystopian prediction.

I don't watch Rachel Maddow and the YouTube politics I watch are either for fun, or summary, or a starting point.

They're just pushing fear porn on you because their media is going away and your team doesn't have a good alternative at this point.

Nobody in left wing media to my knowledge has made the points that I made in this post. Feel free not to read it, I'd rather you spend your time reading Steuss or Res Ipsa, Canpakes, or Honorentheos, and others, but I guarantee you that you will not find any of the points that I made on Rachel Maddow or Meidas Touch or even Peter Zeihan.

Besides, Trump already showed how he governs and it was him trying to stamp his name on everything. We survived. It doesn't have to be a civil war or session just because your bogey man won. The democrats will probably win back the House and or Senate in 2026 thereby stopping whatever dictatorship you believe is coming. Then two years after that Trump will leave just like he did on Jan 20, 2021.

I don't see winning the next election as a fix for the problem. I see the current situation as a potential push into a new direction that is more congruent with a world with unfixable inequality and dwindling resources, where innovation and large scale efforts will become more important for survival. I may be wrong, but not for the reasons you've decided in advance.

[Everybody Wang Chung]

The harder 2025 pushes for a dictatorship, the harder blue states will need to push back by ignoring Federal laws. It will be a civil war, but not with guns; a procedural war. Perhaps states themselves won't be the lines of division. I really don't know. The upshot is that blue is significantly the economic majority. I'm hoping the elites have been working on a plan to quietly secede.

If California secedes, it would be the world's fifth largest economy. California also contributes more tax revenue to the US federal government than any other state by far, subsidizing all sorts of Republican states, for which it simply receives constant abuse and scorn.

If California secedes, the dollar would tank and red states would lose their welfare checks, Medicare and social security benefits. If other blue states followed California in seceding, the red states would be like Albania or any other Eastern European country.

Most Californians actually would prefer seceding and just remain on friendly terms with the U.S. If Trump continues to be divisive and dictatorial, there may very well be a new independent country called California.


https://www.newsweek.com/majority-calif ... ey-1874026

[Dr. Shades]

Most Californians actually would prefer seceding and just remain on friendly terms with the U.S. If Trump continues to be divisive and dictatorial, there may very well be a new independent country called California.

You don't think Trump would pull an Abraham Lincoln and forcibly bring it back into the Union?