DiscussMormonism.com

Is it really surprising?

What do you think you can conclude from that?

From what I remember, Trump won huge among uneducated whites in 2016. Not sure if they have exit polling data yet for this election.

In my experience, people with a college education are less likely to believe in whackadoodle conspiracy theories such as the ones that prop up Trumpublicanism.

Res Ipsa wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:58 am

What do you think you can conclude from that?

that he regrets not getting an education?

subgenius wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:33 am

Res Ipsa wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:58 am

What do you think you can conclude from that?

that he regrets not getting an education?

Oh I have an education, but unlike you I'm not living in a top 10 state for ignorance.

Icarus wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:32 am

From what I remember, Trump won huge among uneducated whites in 2016. Not sure if they have exit polling data yet for this election.

In my experience, people with a college education are less likely to believe in whackadoodle conspiracy theories such as the ones that prop up Trumpublicanism.

Trump won among non-college whites men and women and white college men. But why do you think it’s the education of whites people that makes the difference in your chart?

Those differences are so gross and large scale that one is entitled to draw the broad conclusion that large groups of voters with an exceptionally high average educational level are notably less likely to vote for Trump than large groups of voters with an exceptionally low educational level.

What is more, there is an obvious causative mechanism at work here: Trump bases much of his appeal on a combination of easily detected lies and emotional dog-whistles. People with low educational level are less likely to have acquired the critical thinking tools to see through an appeal based on lies and dog-whistles. So the results are no surprise.

Chap wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:32 am

Those differences are so gross and large scale that one is entitled to draw the broad conclusion that large groups of voters with an exceptionally high average educational level are notably less likely to vote for Trump than large groups of voters with an exceptionally low educational level.

What is more, there is an obvious causative mechanism at work here: Trump bases much of his appeal on a combination of easily detected lies and emotional dog-whistles. People with low educational level are less likely to have acquired the critical thinking tools to see through an appeal based on lies and dog-whistles. So the results are no surprise.

I have very little doubt that that is one of the most biggest reasons why people with low educational levels are more likely to vote for people like Trump.

I understand correlation doesn't always equal causation, but sometimes it does. This is why I said these numbers weren't surprising. I don't think it is a coincidence Biden wins the most educated states but he's also winning them by the widest margins.

Take a look at the county by county maps in states like Florida. Virtually everything is red except for six consolidated areas. Each area in Blue is the location of the largest universities in the state. Alachua county is a lone blue county surrounded by a sea of red. It went for Biden by 27 points, and that is where the University of Florida is. Gadsden County is on the border of Red State Alabama, yet Biden won by 37 points. Why? What's in Tallahassee? Florida State University. Clarke County Georgia is surrounded by red counties, yet went for Biden by 42 points. What's in Clarke County? The University of Georgia.

There is no way Republican strategists haven't picked up on this over the years, which probably explains the Right Wing attack on education. They're trying to convince their audience that colleges intentionally indoctrinate people to become Liberals. They push for private schooling, home schooling, charter schooling, etc. I'm also seeing this tendency to discourage kids from attending traditional colleges and opt for a vocational/trade school.

Icarus wrote: I understand correlation doesn't always equal causation

Absolutely. But if there is also an obvious causative process that might be expected to lead to the observed correlation, that is a very different matter. And as I posted above, that is clearly the case here. It would be astonishing, given Trump's reliance on lies + emotional dog-whistles, if large samples of more highly educated populations had an obvious tendency to vote for him more than poorly educated populations.

(That's not of course to deny that it may be possible to identify some highly educated groups that voted for Trump, or that there are interesting conclusions to be drawn from a careful demographic dissection of large groups of pro and anti Trump voters.)

Icarus wrote:There is no way Republican strategists haven't picked up on this over the years, which probably explains the Right Wing attack on education. They're trying to convince their audience that colleges intentionally indoctrinate people to become Liberals. They push for private schooling, home schooling, charter schooling, etc. I'm also seeing this tendency to discourage kids from attending traditional colleges and opt for a vocational/trade school.

Yup!