A pre-election game

[Some Schmo]

So, yeah, Joe Biden is better than Donald Trump, but he is still only the guy that the slightly less crazy oligarchs have chosen. Biden's running mate is better than both, but she is still a person who has been put forward by the wealthy elite from the beginning.

Well, as lots of us have said in one way or another, anything's better than Trump (a turnip, a rotting corpse, a cancerous goat... take your pick). I will say, Biden has kind of grown on me. I've been impressed by his campaign's messaging.

But I take your point. Our choices are limited to the people put forward, who are only there because of the money. Biden's not my first choice, but I consider him the guy for the job in this moment.

[Kishkumen]

Kish, while I get your point, neither Trump nor Jackson were picked by 'elite insiders.' I don't think either choice was an improvement.

Yes, I thought that someone would raise these guys, but I am going to have to push back, albeit respectfully. Look, the "elite" refers to a class of people, not the Illuminati or Skull and Bones. In other words, I am not talking about a conspiracy theory here. I am saying that the people who become president are supported, and to an extent pre-selected by members of a financial/political elite.

It is not the case that Donald Trump came out of nowhere. He flirted around with the idea of running for president for some time, and there were wealthy and connected people who encouraged him to do it. He may have been boosted by a small group of crazy billionaires, but he does have his Robert Mercers and Sheldon Adelsons. Were it not for the platform that Rupert Murdoch happily handed him, Trump would have gotten nowhere.

Dig into Jackson, and you will quickly encounter John Overton, plantation owner and Superior Court judge in Tennessee. Overton was one of the wealthiest men in Tennessee. The Overtons were powerful and influential Americans of English descent whose great-grandfather was a military commander for the Parliamentarians in the English Civil War. Jackson lost to Adams in his first bid, but he had the support of New York Senator Martin Van Buren and Vice President John C. Calhoun in his second. (Calhoun was a plantation owner and a staunch supporter of slavery, as Overton was.)

So, yes, it is true that there is no monolithic elite calling the shots. But these guys don't end up in range of the presidency by accident. They belong to an elite, and they are supported by fellow elites. Without that support, they would not get anywhere. This is part of the vetting process, haphazard though it may be, for the presidency.

[Some Schmo]

Biden's not my first choice, but I consider him the guy for the job in this moment.

Help us, Obiden Wan Kenobi. You're our only hope...

[Gunnar]

Biden's not my first choice, but I consider him the guy for the job in this moment.

Help us, Obiden Wan Kenobi. You're our only hope...

I hope he wins by a large enough margin so that there is no chance that Trump can win by litigation what he could not win by a open and fair election.

[Kishkumen]

Well, as lots of us have said in one way or another, anything's better than Trump (a turnip, a rotting corpse, a cancerous goat... take your pick). I will say, Biden has kind of grown on me. I've been impressed by his campaign's messaging.

But I take your point. Our choices are limited to the people put forward, who are only there because of the money. Biden's not my first choice, but I consider him the guy for the job in this moment.

I agree. He is not the same offensive dork he used to be. He is more acceptable than Trump by far, and I enthusiastically cast my vote for him a while ago by drop box. Now I am just praying that we can send Trump packing without incident.

[Gunnar]

I'm curious how the posters here expect election night to shake out and so I'm going to put mine out there and invite others to join in. We're down to the wire and a bunch of fresh polling has dropped in the last day or so so I'm not expecting any major polling shifts in the runup. Obviously if you want to hedge your bets you can wait till closer to election day to get the most up-to-date data but what is the fun in that? In wager I offer nothing but 4 years of bragging rights to those closest to the truth and maybe some humble pie for the rest of us.

I used the election map over at 538 but I think any source will do as long as it allows you to predict outcomes (Real Clear Politics should have one as well).

The calls that actually matter: I suspect Trump will hold on to Florida, Georgia, and Ohio but lose out on many of the swing states that secured his victory in 2016.

BEHOLD!

A link to my map

I certainly hope you're right about Biden winning all the states you indicated, but doesn't he have a better than even chance of winning Florida and Maine as well? And according so some polls, even Texas is not out of the question. What a wonderful blowout that would be, if it happened! Jaime Harrison seems to have a fair to middling shot at defeating Lindsey Graham for Senate in South Carolina. If he wins, will that carry over to a win for Biden as well? Similarly Susan Collins may lose to Sara Gideon in Maine. Would that change the odds in favor of Biden there? Will the fact that Collins voted against confirmation of Amy Barrett hurt or help Collins in that race?

[Brack]

I'm curious how the posters here expect election night to shake out and so I'm going to put mine out there and invite others to join in. We're down to the wire and a bunch of fresh polling has dropped in the last day or so so I'm not expecting any major polling shifts in the runup. Obviously if you want to hedge your bets you can wait till closer to election day to get the most up-to-date data but what is the fun in that? In wager I offer nothing but 4 years of bragging rights to those closest to the truth and maybe some humble pie for the rest of us.

I used the election map over at 538 but I think any source will do as long as it allows you to predict outcomes (Real Clear Politics should have one as well).

The calls that actually matter: I suspect Trump will hold on to Florida, Georgia, and Ohio but lose out on many of the swing states that secured his victory in 2016.

BEHOLD!

A link to my map

I certainly hope you're right about Biden winning all the states you indicated, but doesn't he have a better than even chance of winning Florida and Maine as well? And according so some polls, even Texas is not out of the question. What a wonderful blowout that would be, if it happened! Jaime Harrison seems to have a fair to middling shot at defeating Lindsey Graham for Senate in South Carolina. If he wins, will that carry over to a win for Biden as well? Similarly Susan Collins may lose to Sara Gideon in Maine. Would that change the odds in favor of Biden there? Will the fact that Collins voted against confirmation of Amy Barrett hurt or help Collins in that race?

I believe that Biden will win Maine, but that Trump will win Maine’s 2nd congressional district. I believe that Biden will win Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. I believe that Trump will win Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Florida and Iowa while Biden will win Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I believe that it will be Biden with 305 Electoral votes and Trump with 233 Electoral votes.

As for the Senate, I believe that Sara Gideon will defeat Senator Collins, and that Senator Graham will win his re-election bid. South Carolina is too red of a state for Graham not to win his re-election bid.

[Xenophon]

I certainly hope you're right about Biden winning all the states you indicated, but doesn't he have a better than even chance of winning Florida and Maine as well? And according so some polls, even Texas is not out of the question. What a wonderful blowout that would be, if it happened! Jaime Harrison seems to have a fair to middling shot at defeating Lindsey Graham for Senate in South Carolina. If he wins, will that carry over to a win for Biden as well? Similarly Susan Collins may lose to Sara Gideon in Maine. Would that change the odds in favor of Biden there? Will the fact that Collins voted against confirmation of Amy Barrett hurt or help Collins in that race?

All good and right considerations, Gunnar.

Florida is a dead toss up by most of the polling averages I've seen but I don't think you'd be "wrong" to guess it might go Biden's way. I mostly just threw Trump a bone with half of the Maine electorate (they can be a tough bunch to predict).

I will admit that my predictions rely a fair bit on the polls being mostly accurate and not overcompensating against Biden in response to 2016. Honestly I'd be more than tickled to see Biden take Texas but I think that is still a far cry from where we are at. The kind of landslide that it would take to see Texas turn would render my map kinda silly looking because Biden would most certainly pick up Florida, Georgia and likely Ohio before that.

It is probable that we see higher turnout in those states with hotly contested senate races and that may make a difference. I suppose I generally think of elections in terms of down ballot implications and not that energy flowing the other way. I'll admit that may just be a blind spot on my part. I think odds are still fairly good for Graham and pretty bad for Collins.

[Moksha]

What if we are Charley Brown and go to take a victory lap because we did our mail-in voting before the Great Pumpkin, but then, Supreme Court Justice Lucy comes and throws a bucket of Trump COVID on us. Are we prepared for that contingency?

South Carolina is too red of a state for Graham not to win his re-election bid.

Don't forget about the high concentration of lead in the drinking water. That makes for overwhelming Republicanism.

[Moksha]

Had Trump read the book 1984, he would have interpreted it as a blueprint rather than a warning.