Pandemic: Life on the ground

[Jersey Girl]

with regard to to Omicron. There was a short stretch of time where I went unmasked in certain stores right after the third shot. Not now. I'm masking up wherever I go regardless of the volume of folks. Tomorrow we have some folks coming over. Not a lot. Total group size will be 6 this time and only one child is not vaxxed . I'm not masking but...I will spread out and keep distance as best as I can, put the fans on (supposed to be nice temps tomorrow...50's), and probably open a window a bit in each room. Not get in anyone's face.

Hair appointment this after noon. Last time I went unmasked. Today, masking up.

I don't get what Gad is saying about expect to get Omicron even with a mask. But I haven't read his link yet so perhaps more explanation is there. I haven't had a lot of time to read online lately--holidays.

[Res Ipsa]

I've been following this bloke from Chap's side of the pond for a while now, and he's become my go-to source for daily updates on Omicron.

Any position includes a good deal of speculation at this point, for Omicron, but add "kid" plus "immunocompromised", and ???

The hottest point of contention over Omicron is whether Omicron is milder or not. It spreads fast, R0 is 3-5. We are probably a few weeks away from it being dominant in US, but if you're out and doing things even vaccinated and with a mask, be prepared to get it.

The mild symptoms could be because its milder, or it could be because so many people in SA have already had Covid that they have some natural immunity. The emerging UK data indicates that it's milder for vaccinated people also.

That hot contention point is hot in part because the debate over severity is partially driven by presuppositions about how viruses evolve, and not just what the data is. Some experts say that they expect the virus to spread faster and get less severe until it goes endemic as a seasonal cold. Some say that's just not true, and several other possibilities are on the table. I think the first group is fundamentally right, and that the doomers are really pointing out the virus doesn't have to follow a nice clean path to that end result. It could get better, then suddenly get worse again and stay bad for a long time. One of the worst possibilities is if two variants of concern get inside the same person and switch up fragments.

In general, if the virus is killing people or making people extremely ill, then it's not getting out there and spreading. And the odds are worse for the more deadly variant even inside the same person, because triggering an immune response isn't a good survival strategy -- the less virulent strain will tend to win.

With a wealth of practicing epidemiologists, virologists, and public health specialists literally at your fingertips, why pick a retired nurse educator who has a YouTube channel?

One need not be a doomer to recognize the ability of Omicron to trash a healthcare system already strained to the breaking point in many areas. Idaho and Oregon sent lots of patients to Washington to cope with their Delta peaks. But I read this morning that our hospitals are no longer accepting out of state transfers. That’s pretty sobering, as our hospitals have been in decent shape since the end of the first wave.

The three most important things I’ve read so far are:

1) If a member of your household gets infected, the odds are high that your whole household will catch it. It spreads so quickly and easily that by the time one member tests positive, everyone is likely to be infected.

2) If you’re relying on pre-event testing to keep you safe at a gathering, the tests need to be rapid tests taken as close to the start of the event as possible.

3) Ditch the cloth face coverings. N95s or KN95s if possible. Surgical masks if not.

I’ve returned to working solely from home instead of four days a week at the office (my employer is fine with that). I skipped Thursday’s office Christmas party, I’ve disconnected in person boarding (again) and am avoiding going anywhere indoors where there are lots of people. We’ve got family staying with us now. After they leave on Friday, we’ll be pretty well locked down. Might even try that grocery delivery thing.

I’m convinced that Ed Young is right: the main danger This time around isn’t as much individual risk as it is to collective risk. Keeping our local hospitals functioning is a good thing, even if I don’t happen to need one over the next few weeks.

[ajax18]

with regard to to Omicron. There was a short stretch of time where I went unmasked in certain stores right after the third shot. Not now. I'm making up wherever I go regardless of the volume of folks. Tomorrow we have some folks coming over. Not a lot. Total group size will be 6 this time and only one child is not vaxxed . I'm not masking but...I will spread out and keep distance as best as I can, put the fans on (supposed to be nice temps tomorrow...50's), and probably open a window a bit in each room. Not get in anyone's face.

Hair appointment this after noon. Last time I went unmasked. Today, masking up.

I don't get what Gad is saying about expect to get Omicron even with a mask. But I haven't read his link yet so perhaps more explanation is there. I haven't had a lot of time to read online lately--holidays.

Omicron is 70 times more contagious than Delta which was about 50 times more contagious than the original COVID. How much protection does a surgical mask really provide you? What about a cloth mask? What percentage of people who have been triple vaccinated like yourself are hospitalized due to COVID?

[Gadianton]

With a wealth of practicing epidemiologists, virologists, and public health specialists literally at your fingertips, why pick a retired nurse educator who has a YouTube channel?

For the same reason you picked some guy who writes for the Atlantic.

Public health officials can kiss my ass. They've been misleading from the beginning, and I think there are reasons for that which will be tough for government to transcend, as government is making decisions based on the greatest good for the greatest number of people. Two examples:

1) masks. Nice that government is recommending n-95 masks now, I've been wearing them since the beginning and I've posted about it many times. Public health officials originally dissuaded the public from wearing n-95 masks, because for the greater good, it's best to leave them for healthcare workers. But they took an additional measures spinning a narrative that science doesn't really support the efficacy of masks, and in particular, n-95 masks for a non-professionals are difficult to wear properly. It took them a while before they could bring themselves to recommend a basic face covering. That's probably because they couldn't promote masks much at all without risking greater pressures on N-95 masks.

2) J&J vaccine -- risks and benefits. When asked what vaccine is best, the government sidestepped and said take whatever vaccine is available. From the beginning, it was pretty clear Moderna is the best all around. But you can't say that, because the best overall is that everyone get vaccinated and not wait. This is a near impossible situation to be in for government. Now, as availability isn't an issue, government is admitting the obvious that J&J is inferior.

One need not be a doomer to recognize the ability of Omicron to trash a healthcare system already strained to the breaking point in many areas.

You're changing the context: I was speaking of optimists and pessimists in regard to the particular characteristics of Omicron. Just because a person is optimistic about Omicron possibly signaling the light at the end of the tunnel for the pandemic in general, doesn't mean a person is optimistic about the hospital situation. That Omicron will bring the healthcare system to its knees, if not already on its knees, is highly likely given the sheer numbers of infections expected. That's not a controversial point. In fact, there could be short-term economic impacts with high numbers of people calling in sick. But if so, I'm buying the dip because I expect things to improve in the mid-term.

I don't disagree with your three points. But realistically, Omicron is so infectious that it will push the capabilities of n-95 masks. Fix your n-95 the best that you can and then go to Home Depot and stand next to a plant you're allergic to and see what I mean.

While I've pushed n-95s from the beginning, I'm also aware of the limitations. The only issue I have with masks is in the way they can give a person false confidence. Like wearing a seatbelt can increase the odds of driving dangerously. After you've already social distanced as much as you can and got vaccinated, then add wearing a n-95. It's not; hey, I got my n-95, so now I think I'll sit down and eat at the local burger joint; something I wouldn't have done without the mask.

[Chap]

With a wealth of practicing epidemiologists, virologists, and public health specialists literally at your fingertips, why pick a retired nurse educator who has a YouTube channel?

Well, I'm sorta .. yeah.

[Jersey Girl]

with regard to to Omicron. There was a short stretch of time where I went unmasked in certain stores right after the third shot. Not now. I'm making up wherever I go regardless of the volume of folks. Tomorrow we have some folks coming over. Not a lot. Total group size will be 6 this time and only one child is not vaxxed . I'm not masking but...I will spread out and keep distance as best as I can, put the fans on (supposed to be nice temps tomorrow...50's), and probably open a window a bit in each room. Not get in anyone's face.

Hair appointment this after noon. Last time I went unmasked. Today, masking up.

I don't get what Gad is saying about expect to get Omicron even with a mask. But I haven't read his link yet so perhaps more explanation is there. I haven't had a lot of time to read online lately--holidays.

Omicron is 70 times more contagious than Delta which was about 50 times more contagious than the original COVID. How much protection does a surgical mask really provide you? What about a cloth mask? What percentage of people who have been triple vaccinated like yourself are hospitalized due to COVID?

Those are good questions. I am sure you can find the answers by using your googler.

[ajax18]

Gad is right about expect to get omicron. I know the answer to those questions. Do you?

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7883189/

- Doc

[Gadianton]

Gad is right about expect to get omicron

uh huh. While I might get it, I don't expect to get it. I work from home and during the surge I don't plan to go anywhere but the grocery store, and I can do curbside there if I need to. If I go in, n-95 plus I go in the mornings to beat the crowd and I'm good at dodging people.

If you're going to circulate with friends and relatives over x-mas and new years, it's just a question if Omni has built up enough steam by then. If it has, then don't count on masks or vaccination from stopping it unless you timed your booster just perfectly. Do expect your vaccination to launch a strong cellular response and clear the virus should you fall prey to infection. Should you be one of the unlucky ones to experience severe symptoms, plan to die in the comfort of your own home as I do, as there likely won't be any facilities with room for you.

[Gadianton]

Well, I'm sorta .. yeah.

Fine, Chap, but the problem is neither you nor Res Ipsa have unmitigated access to epidemiologist consensus, and you certainly don't have unmitigated access to epidemiologist consensus on a day-to-day basis. If you have a better source for a play-by-play as Omicron unfolds, post it.

For what it's worth, I thought Res's article by Ed Yong, a young science writer with a masters in biochemistry and not an authority on disease, was a good article. I don't dispute anything he wrote.

If somebody here provides me with a better source for daily updates on Omicron than John Campbell's channel, then I'll gladly embrace it or switch over to it. Until then, John is my guy.