Gun Violence

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honorentheos
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Gun Violence

Post by honorentheos »

Gun violence is almost a constant in the current news cycle, raising the question of what is going on now that is different from before? So I thought it might be valuable to share resources and thoughts on this other pandemic.

First, here's an article reporting on 2020 where May 2020, two months into the pandemic, saw the highest number of mass shootings since they were tracked:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-t ... blogHeader

Firearm fatalities increased significantly in April (16 percent) and May (15 percent) compared to the same months in 2019, even while many Americans spent their days sheltered at home, according to new data from the Gun Violence Archive compiled exclusively for NBC News. Those deaths followed unprecedented spikes in gun purchases in March, a trend that continued in April.

"May 2020 has officially had the highest number of mass shootings (56) of any month since we started tracking mass shooting data in 2013,” the Gun Violence Archive said on May 31. The study defines mass shootings as four or more shot and/or killed in a single event.


Whatever is behind it, the spike started over a year ago. 2020 ended with the highest number of people killed in over 20 years:

https://time.com/5922082/2020-gun-viole ... cord-year/

Gun violence and gun crime has, in particular, risen drastically, with over 19,000 people killed in shootings and firearm-related incidents in 2020. That’s the highest death toll in over 20 years, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), an online site that collects gun violence data, and the Britannia Group’s non-partisan site procon.org.

This total includes victims of homicides and unintentional deaths but does not include gun suicides. And despite there being no “large-scale” shootings in 2020, the number of mass shootings—which are classified as an incident in which four or more people are shot and injured or killed—has actually risen, drastically, to over 600, the most in the past 5 years and a nearly 50% increase in 2019’s total.


The above article makes an interesting distinction, noting the difference between large-scale mass shootings and incidents where four or more people die due to being shot.

This seems to be the main reason 2020 had relatively little of the kind of reporting we are currently seeing as major shootings such as occured in the El Paso walmart shooting in August 2019 were missing in 2020, leading to the Florida spa shootings this March being seen as kicking off a wave of mass shooting events which raise awareness of smaller mass shootings as the news cycle moves to cover the violence.

Why bring it up? I don't know. The recent reporting made me curious about gun violence in 2020, and what may be going on. I was surprised to find out it was as violent as it turned out to have been.
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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: Gun Violence

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Why can’t a mass shooting be three or more people? Why is four the line?

- Doc
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honorentheos
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by honorentheos »

Don't know. Since the reporting in 2020 was light despite the record number of mass shootings meeting the four or more threshold but not rising to the level that would get a reaction, would that change anything?

Or, to paraphrase Maynard, we don't give pause until the blood is really flowing, perhaps.

https://youtu.be/h_TUP2vuaDs
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by Res Ipsa »

I think we really need to look at the context of historical trends. Violence in the US had been steadily decreasing for at least 20 years, if not longer, up until about 2014. Since then it has gone up and down around the historic low levels.
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honorentheos
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by honorentheos »

My readings suggest that 2020 was unusual, with gun deaths 25% higher than in 2019, causing it to be at a significant 20 year high due to many factors that continue in 2021. For example, from an NPR report from January 2021:

If you look at statistics on gun violence, you see that, pretty much, there is a constant. It fluctuates between 13,000 to 15,000 every year for all the years that I've looked at it - at least the last decade or so. We saw this huge uptick now.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/03/95296976 ... r%20before.

According to the Gun Violence Archive, a total of at least 19,223 people lost their lives due to gun violence in 2020. That's an almost 25% jump from the year before.

...

"So one reason that is almost certainly a contributing factor was the uptick in gun sales. I think in March alone, 2 million guns had been sold. And so we saw this increase in gun sales that persisted throughout 2020.

...one of the things that certainly could have played a factor as well is that public resources simply were diverted due to the pandemic - so the work of violence interrupters, social programs and support services not being as readily available."


There's something going on. 2020 saw an underreported increase in gun violence, including mass shootings, but that underreporting may be partially due there not being the headline-grabbing shootings we have seen dominate the headlines the last month or more.

I think the NPR report is right to suggest there aren't historic trends that also include a global pandemic, economic disruptions, political upheavals, etc. 2020-21 gun violence isn't the flu in the same way COVID isn't just another flu bug. The numbers suggest it deserves more consideration.
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Re: Gun Violence

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https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/10/us/us-we ... index.html

At least 15 people were killed and 30 more injured in mass shootings since Friday night, according to CNN reporting and an analysis of data from Gun Violence Archive (GVA), local media and police reports.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/co ... 1-n1265201

It may feel like America entered a new wave of gun violence in 2021, but a review of shootings with multiple victims shows that their frequency has been unusually high for more than a year.

Data from the Gun Violence Archive shows that the number of multiple-victim shootings first spiked in April 2020 and has stayed high since. The most recent wave of shootings around the country, including the April 15 attack in Indianapolis where eight people were killed at a FedEx facility, is just the latest symptom of that trend.

The deadly pattern has continued this year. There have been 160 shootings from Jan. 1 to April 26 in which four or more people were injured or killed, compared to just over 90 during the same period in 2020. And this year’s total is nearly double the average for the same time period for every year since 2014.

...

The rise in shootings corresponds with an increase in gun sales, which jumped at the outset of the pandemic as stay-at-home orders unleashed a wave of unemployment across the country. FBI background checks, which are conducted when a person attempts to buy a firearm from most dealers, can serve as a proxy for gun sales. In the 13 months since March 2020, the agency has seen 3 million background checks in a month 11 times, after having just one such month between 1998 and February 2020.
honorentheos
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by honorentheos »

Last week was the first time in over a year that I met with a few peers from other companies for a happy hour. The discussion followed the old pattern so I guess some grooves run deep enough even 2020 and COVID couldn't break them. The pattern typically begins with work talk, project updates, gossip about professionals and people in the public sphere most of us know, some cross-discipline jabs framed as jokes and the like. That usually takes time to move into other topics, and then it gets a bit free wheeling and goes in unpredictable directions.

Why bring that up in a thread I started long ago about the rise in gun violence in the US that corresponded with the quarantine? Because the chit chat at the table took a turn to firearms which revealed a few political differences I found interesting. I don't recall the context that started it, but at some point one of the gents started complaining about not being able to buy ammo for his shooting hobby because it was sold out everywhere. Then, in a very knowing way, he shared that when he asked one of the store employees about it they told him...it's because the military is buying up all of the ammo from shotgun shells to .22 long rounds. Because wink-wink, nudge nudge, 2nd amendment stuff, you see.

I had to give a little friendly resistance to the comment, wondering why the military would buy up ammo that they couldn't use? We moved on to talking about weapons we've fired, then moved on again to some unrelated topic as those things do.

The incident reminded me that there is this strange issue in American politics where violence in America is on the rise...yet talking about it isn't solution-focused. Whether it is background for a narrative claiming the current administration and many leaders of various states and cities are weak on crime while attacking police on the one hand or,...well, not talking about it because apparently the idea that violence has been increasing isn't important and causes problems for the conversation about improving law enforcement practices when rhetoric can easily find it hard to pivot off the idea LEO are basically the problem.

Anyway, just thought I'd point out we're still heading to a record number of mass shootings in a year that's all about breaking the wrong kinds of records.

Coda reference for the bar chat conspiracy theory in case anyone wants to confirm people believe this. Or, conversely for those who also believe it, what's going on and has been going on for a while regarding gun sales and ammo:
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/veri ... ce%20Keane.
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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

Good Lord. Linked from the article:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JmLcseBmqwg

That dude really wants to shoot someone.

Also, from the YouTube sidebar:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IdJYcR9ceVU

“I just got a text from a patriot.”

Also, new learning moment for the day: SHTF is a thing they say unironically.

-_-
Hugh Nibley claimed he bumped into Adolf Hitler, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill, Gertrude Stein, and the Grand Duke Vladimir Romanoff. Dishonesty is baked into Mormonism.
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Gadianton
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by Gadianton »

One of my right-wing friends on my morning walk is an older guy who I actually respect quite a bit once you get past politics, and his guns are his life. It's not that he shoots them very often, but somehow, his sense of identity is intertwined with his guns. He's a sportsman, not weekend militia man, and so his guns are an expensive side-by-side 12 and a few other hunting guns and six-shooters. Unlike ldsfaqs, he doesn't riddle deer with .223 rounds. Anytime there's a mass shooting in the news he's in a panic: he's sure they're coming after his guns. I explain to him that nobody is ever going to take his guns. But yeah, there's absolutely no concern over kids dying and so on. I can't remember the details, but there was something about the NRA moving headquarters from NY to Texas a few months ago, and that got a mention among my on-walk right-wingers. Even the right-wing lady who has a heart of gold and has no connection to guns expressed hushed support and prayers for the NRA's move.

There is unlikely an externality as deadly as the externality from our lax gun laws. Our gun manufacturers have armed the entire continent. Guns get traded from drugs.

I watched this documentary Himalaya Calling on Amazon Prime a few weeks back. It's about these two German motorcycle enthusiasts who ride their bikes from Germany to the Himalayas. There were some dangers, but they had a relatively easy trip in regard to interactions with other people. They passed through Romania, China, Pakistan, India etc. It looked like a lot of fun. I haven't had a bike in years, but thinking about such a trip, I can't even imagine a similar trip from the States to the southern tip of South America. Too much risk of getting shot.

The rest of the world pays a big price for middle-class America's freedom to shoot tin cans in the desert any time they want.
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Moksha
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Re: Gun Violence

Post by Moksha »

honorentheos wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:56 am
2020-21 gun violence isn't the flu in the same way COVID isn't just another flu bug. The numbers suggest it deserves more consideration.
If only it were as simple as ingesting some more bleach. The American support for guns suggests we will tolerate many more gun deaths than we have now. Other countries are shocked by this cavalier attitude toward gun deaths.
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