Thursday Election Updates

[Res Ipsa]

Clark County Nevada (Las Vegas) has started releasing updated totals. Biden lead increases from 7600 to about 12K.

GA: Trump lead continues to shrink: down to 14K

PA: Trump lead continues to shrink: down to 116K

AZ: Biden lead continues to shrink: Biden by 8500.

NC: Not expecting any new totals until 11/10.

[Xenophon]

The Georgia race could get very interesting. I saw where the last batch of votes went about 75% for Biden and still 50k to 60k still outstanding. If that 75% rate holds or is close Georgia may very well flip. We're fast approaching a world where even the slightly more bullish models for Biden are going to look pretty solid.

[Res Ipsa]

GA: Trump by 13.5K, 50K left to count. Biden needs about 63%. Fulton County is done counting, with about 7K still to be reported.

NV: Clark County press conference. This is complicated. Clark County will report 51K more votes at 10:00 AM PT tomorrow. These are mostly mail-in ballots, but may include the last of the election day votes. The total mail-in votes ready to count is 63K. Totals will be announced once daily at 10:00 a.m.

On top of those totals, there are several categories of votes that are not ready to be counted yet: voters who were required to personally appear with ID; mail-in ballots with signature problems, who have a period to come in and "cure;" mail ballots that have not yet arrived (deadline is 11/10); and provisional ballots (60K). They expect to have all the mail-in ballots counted by Saturday or Sunday (expect that a few that will trickle in through Tuesday). Counting ends 11/12.

Nevada is slow, in part, because they sent a ballot to each registered voter. To prevent fraud, they created a fairly elaborate process of verifying and and cross checking. They are taking time to make sure they are doing it right. Frustrating, but it's hard to claim about people being careful about getting the count right.

PA: There are about 550K uncounted ballots left. They expect to finish today. Counting was briefly stopped by one of the GOP lawsuits. The GOP describes this suit as being about access. It's is specifically about the distance observers were required to stay away from the workers. An intermediate appellate court had reduced the distance to 6 feet. They had to stop to physically reconfigure their space to comply. They are also appealing to the State Supreme Court. Regardlesss of reporting earlier today from Allegheny County, they are counting votes today, with 100K to go.

GA: Of the remaining ballots, 17K are in Chatham County. To date, Biden has been winning 58% there. He needs 63% of the total outstanding. However, the uncounted ballots are likely to be mail-in ballots, which skew towards Biden.

PA: Trump's lead down to about 111K
PA: Down to 108k. Biden needs only 60%. He’s been running over 70% today.
PA: Down to 98k.

NV: Per Secretary of State, about 150k ballots left to count in state. 90% in heavily blue Clark County.

GA: Trump lead down to 9500.

PA: Trump lead down to 89K
PA: 78K

[Res Ipsa]

Georgia on my mind. Trump’s lead down to about 3600 votes. Per 538.

[subgenius]

Georgia on my mind. Trump’s lead down to about 3600 votes. Per 538.

and it only took a water main break...

[Res Ipsa]

Georgia on my mind. Trump’s lead down to about 3600 votes. Per 538.

and it only took a water main break...

Nope. It just took counting votes.

And PA is down to 50k.

[subgenius]

Nope. It just took counting votes.

And PA is down to 50k.

I believe the point, the obvious point, is that "vote" isnt just every piece of paper that shows up. And while you are about to tout the legitimacy here for the "legality" of everything going on, i will be busy re-reading your post about the inherent corruption and evil of the legal system in this country....

[Res Ipsa]

Nope. It just took counting votes.

And PA is down to 50k.

I believe the point, the obvious point, is that "vote" isnt just every piece of paper that shows up. And while you are about to tout the legitimacy here for the "legality" of everything going on, i will be busy re-reading your post about the inherent corruption and evil of the legal system in this country....

My, my, my. We’re really butt hurt tonight, aren’t we Trump sycophant?

GA: 2400

AZ: Biden lead shrinks to 46K.

GA: 2000

PA: 42,000

[Analytics]

Nope. It just took counting votes.

And PA is down to 50k.

I believe the point, the obvious point, is that "vote" isnt just every piece of paper that shows up. And while you are about to tout the legitimacy here for the "legality" of everything going on, i will be busy re-reading your post about the inherent corruption and evil of the legal system in this country....

Out of curiosity, is it hard for you to wrap your head around the fact that the following things are all true?

1- Republicans have made gains in the House.
2- Republicans are probably going to hold on to the Senate.
3- Trump got more votes than any Republican presidential candidate in history.
4- Biden got more overall votes than Trump.
5- In fact, over 50% of the population voted for Biden.
6- Biden won the Electoral College, too.

Remember, it is the same set of ballots. If Democrats were cheating to win the presidency, why didn't they cheat to widen the margin in the House and cheat to win the Senate, too?

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I do feel a small obligation to correct ——o O o——‘s smooth brain comment.

Trump claimed, "In Georgia, a pipe burst in a faraway location totally unrelated to the location of what was happening, and they stopped counting for four hours."

He couldn’t even get the facts of his lie straight. It's not true that the burst pipe in Atlanta happened in a location unrelated to the vote count. The pipe burst in a room at State Farm Arena that local officials said was above the processing room for Fulton County absentee ballots. It caused a four-hour delay. No ballots were damaged, election officials said.

This is the problem with Trumplicans. They can just say whatever, and their base will believe it. Not only will they pass it on, they’ll share it until it becomes a tenet of their faith. The current meme is the election is a fraud. Trump tweets out his magical sigil saying so. The cult gets emotional, and then retweets the lie with the fervor of Saints. Lies become facts within seconds these days.

- Doc