Wow...the Church grew a whopping 0% in the US from '90-'08!

[_Danna]

Immigration and emmigration would be factors only if there are different rates for different religions. If you got a lot of immigration from Latin America that would need to be factored in of course, as they would bolster the Catholics at the expense of all the other religions.

I dare say that more Buddhists and Muslims entered the United States by immigration than Mormons or Jews.

You'd be right on there - the Muslim increase noted in the OP would be largely due to immigration. There isn't really enough information to work out what the expected percentage of Mormons would be given the big four: birthrate, immigration, emmigration, and deathrate.

Another problem would be classification - people identifying as Mormon could be FLDS, RLDS, independents, or LDS. Would the survey planners consider the same or different religions?

[_Danna]

Crickey Dick!

Utah has about a one third higher birthrate. And I would guess that it is based on an even higher Mormon birthrate.

[_Bond James Bond]

I wish the census would catalog this information, but well we have to go and be all freedom of speechy so I guess we have to make do with these type of polls. But if it's 5.9 to 3.2 then that's 50%+ activity, much better than those projections of 25% often quoted. Silver lining!

[_Droopy]

Why, Nehor, do ye go about controverting the ways of cynicpro? Why do ye teach this people that there may not be an imminent collapse of the Church, to interrupt their rejoicings? Why do ye speak against all the prophecies of the rabid critics?

Keep in mind too that membership in the Church and acceptance of its doctrines is a popularity contest. The more people join the Church in ever larger numbers, the more this must mean the Church is true.

Anything unpopular with the general masses could not be true, and hence, the small percentage of the U.S. population that is not LDS is indicative of its unpopularity, and hence, its lack of truth value.

Now, with that out of the way, those remaining TBMs here can all turn in our resignations to our Bishop's this coming Wednesday night.

[Guest]

e3vgdf

[_moksha]

In my ward, the number of inactives seems to be increasing. That is mainly because young couples are replacing older members. Many of these young couples are non-mormon or inactive. I could well imagine some of those who are inactive, failing to identify themselves as Mormon.

[_DarkHelmet]

I'm actually much more interested in the 3.2 million estimate compared to the Church's numbers. Other than the explanation that the Church uses such-and-such counting method and it's swell, any thoughts?

I agree. That's quite a discrepency. There was a similar discrepency in the 2000 census in Chile and the Phillippines, If I recall correctly. The church's numbers were way off. The most obvious explanation is the church simply does not remove inactives from their membership rolls. And since it is much easier to simply stop going than to go through the resignation process, ex-mormons quietly change religions, or become agnostic/atheist while avoiding their hometeachers and pesky missionaries.

[_Chap]

Some sums:

According to the full report of the survey, which is available as a pdf from

http://b27.cc.trincoll.edu/weblogs/Amer ... t_2008.pdf

In 1990 the survey data indicated 2,487,000 in the US self-identified as Mormon/Latter Day Saint, and In 2008 the survey data indicates 3,158,000 self-identified as Mormon/Latter Day Saint.

Now according to the University of Utah study:

http://www.uhreview.net/articles/12/18B ... -Death.pdf

Specifically, in 2006 Utah had a higher birth rate than
the national average (19.2 births per 1,000 persons
compared to 13.9 per 1,000 persons)2 and a lower
death rate than the national average (537 deaths per
100,000 population compared to 823.2 per 100,000
population as shown in Figure 2)1. Given these two
rates, Utah also has a higher growth rate than the
national average (13.8 persons per 1,000 population
compared to 5.6 per 1,000 population as shown in
Figure 3).

It does not seem unfair to take the overall US Mormon rate of population growth as represented by the Utah figure, does it? That would mean that from year to year you would have to multiply by (1013.8/1000) to get next year's population.

If we do that, starting from the 1990 figure we get this series (rounding down to 1000's)

1990 2487000
1991 2521000
1992 2556000
1993 2591000
1994 2627000
1995 2663000
1996 2700000
1997 2737000
1998 2775000
1999 2813000
2000 2852000
2001 2891000
2002 2931000
2003 2972000
2004 3013000
2005 3054000
2006 3096000
2007 3139000
2008 3182000

3,158,000 is the actual number yielded by the survey estimate for 2008; that is within 1% of the figure given by our calculation.

It does seem clear that unless a difference between immigration and emigration rates by LDS is a major factor (which does not seem very likely), then to within less than 1% any conversions to the CoCJoLDS in the period 1990 to 2008 have been balanced by those leaving the CoCJoLDS.

It does not seem that we are talking about a fast-growing religion except to the extent that LDS tend to have more babies than other people.

Please note that nothing in this post depends on what other groups do. It is only about LDS.

[_Gazelam]

Truthdancer,

I know, I know... it is not reality. It is just a little dream of mine.

Phew !....... You do realize it. I was worried.

[_Danna]

Specifically, in 2006 Utah had a higher birth rate than
the national average (19.2 births per 1,000 persons
compared to 13.9 per 1,000 persons)2 and a lower
death rate than the national average (537 deaths per
100,000 population compared to 823.2 per 100,000
population as shown in Figure 2)1. Given these two
rates, Utah also has a higher growth rate than the
national average (13.8 persons per 1,000 population
compared to 5.6 per 1,000 population as shown in
Figure 3).

It does not seem unfair to take the overall US Mormon rate of population growth as represented by the Utah figure, does it? That would mean that from year to year you would have to multiply by (1013.8/1000) to get next year's population.

You are being conservative, that is, more favourable to COJCOLDS. Mormons make up roughly 70% (and shrinking) of the Utah population, so if the Mormon and non-Mormon figures were separated out, the Mormon alone rate would be even higher. Your 24000 missing Mormons is likely to be on the low side of an estimate.

oops I mean't 24000