jon wrote:Speaking of science...here is proof that the second coming is on it's way.
These signs of the Second Coming are all around us and seem to be increasing in frequency and intensity. For example, the list of major earthquakes in The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2004 shows twice as many earthquakes in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s as in the two preceding decades (pp. 189–90). It also shows further sharp increases in the first several years of this century. The list of notable floods and tidal waves and the list of hurricanes, typhoons, and blizzards worldwide show similar increases in recent years (pp. 188–89). Increases by comparison with 50 years ago can be dismissed as changes in reporting criteria, but the accelerating pattern of natural disasters in the last few decades is ominous.
Dr W, does Oaks have a valid point?
jon,
Sorry for taking so long to respond to your question. First of all, I certainly have no special expertise in the area of the occurrence or frequency of natural disasters. Nor, I would venture to say, does Dalin Oaks.
What anyone can do, however (including Dalin Oaks) is to simply have a look at the data. Dalin Oaks has looked and apparently seen what he wants to see. While he recognizes a reporting bias, he then dismisses it as not relevant to his assertion by picking a specific period of time wherein the frequency of reported storms and earthquakes seems to be on the increase and says that such an increase is a sure sign of the second coming.
Pastafarians claim that the reduction of the population of Pirates in the world is directly tied to global warming.
Hurricanes and tornadoes affect a relatively small proportion of the world population because of where they occur. And since the occurrence of these disasters, as well as that of of floods to some extent, has been linked to global warming (anthropogenic or otherwise), I decided to look at the real biblical stuff, volcanoes and earthquakes. These latter events are more evenly distributed around the globe than tornadoes and hurricanes, and just the kind of natural disaster that a vengful God (especially one who has proclaimed a "NO MORE FLOOD" policy), might use to clean things up before his arrival.
I looked at the worst volcanoes and earthquakes in terms of reported loss of life over time.
Here are the ten most deadly volcanoes in recorded history:
1.
Mt. Tambora, Indonesia
April 10 - 15, 1816
Death Toll: 92,000
2.
Mt. Pelee, West Indies
April 25 - May 8, 1902
Death Toll: 40,000
3.
Mt. Krakatoa, Indonesia
August 26 - 28, 1883
Death Toll: 36,000
4.
Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia
November 13, 1985
Death Toll: 23,000
5.
Mt. Unzen, Japan
1792
Death Toll: 12,000 - 15,000
6.
Mt. Vesuvius, Italy
April 24, AD 79
Death Toll: 10,000+
7.
The Laki Volcanic System, Iceland
June 8, 1783 - February 1784
Death Toll: 9350
8.
Mt. Vesuvius, Italy
December 1631
Death Toll: 6,000
9.
Mt. Kelut, Indonesia
May 19, 1919
Death Toll: 5,110
10.
Mt. Galunggung, Java, Indonesia
1882
Death Toll: 4,011
Here are the most deadly earthquakes in recorded history:
Earthquakes By Death Toll
Date Location Deaths MagnitudeJan. 23, 1556 Shansi, China 830,000 ~8
July 27, 1976 Tangshan, China 255,0001 7.5
Aug. 9, 1138 Aleppo, Syria 230,000 n.a.
Dec. 26, 2004 off west coast of Sumatra 225,000+ 9.0
Jan. 12, 2010 Haiti 222,570 7.0
Dec. 22, 8562 Damghan, Iran 200,000 n.a.
May 22, 1927 near Xining, Tsinghai, China 200,000 7.9
Dec. 16, 1920 Gansu, China 200,000 7.8
March 23, 893 Ardabil, Iran 150,000 n.a.
Sept. 1, 1923 Kwanto, Japan 143,000 7.9
Oct. 5, 1948 Turkmenistan, USSR 110,000 7.3
Dec. 28, 1908 Messina, Italy 70,000– 100,0003 7.2
Sept. 1290 Chihli, China 100,000 n.a.
May 12, 2008 Eastern Sichuan, China 87,587 7.9
Oct. 8, 2005 Pakistan 80,361 7.6
Nov. 1667 Shemakha, Caucasia 80,000 n.a.
Nov. 18, 1727 Tabriz, Iran 77,000 n.a.
Dec. 25, 1932 Gansu, China 70,000 7.6
Nov. 1, 1755 Lisbon, Portugal 70,000 8.7
May 31, 1970 Peru 66,000 7.9
May 30, 1935 Quetta, Pakistan 30,000– 60,000 7.5
Jan. 11, 1693 Sicily, Italy 60,000 n.a.
1268 Silicia, Asia Minor 60,000 n.a.
June 20, 1990 Iran 50,000 7.7
Feb. 4, 1783 Calabria, Italy 50,000 n.a.
Keeping in mind that the death toll from these natural disasters is bound to increase with increasing world population, one needs to factor in an appropriate discount for the more recent events.
Sorry, but a quick look at the data for these disasters does not show any strong trend when considered over recorded history. In the case of volcanoes, it would seem that the 19th century was the winner in terms of both number of significant events and lives lost.
Can't tell for certain by inspection, but my guess is that there is not a significant increase here in the last 50 years either when compared to recorded history, keeping in mind that we need to weight number of deaths as a percentage of the world population.
I am confident that Dalin Oaks can back up his statements about the frequency and intensity of storms and earthquakes with data. Not so sure about the significance when considered in terms of the relative damage to the human population on Earth.
Pretty sure that he has no more physical data linking the increases he cites to the second coming than the Pastafarians have linking global warming to the disappearance of Pirates.