The 2012 Election

[_moksha]

I like to consider the things that could go wrong as a strong influence on voting behavior. A worsened economic state would shift a lot of momentum to Romney as voters look toward trickle down money from lessened capital gains and income tax for the wealthy and possibly the middle class. Also voters might bank on decreased business regulations as a means to set everything straight.

The oil companies could help stir this momentum by raising gasoline prices this summer. The investment banks could also help out by destabilizing the market through faulty investments and rumors of upcoming problems.

Also, the young entrepreneurs who help supply Fox Advocacy Group with campaign news, could unearth a Nigerian birth certificate and perhaps documented video clips of United States Postal Service workers moving much slower that the average human being.

Democrats might wish for Mitt to forget his talking points during the scheduled candidate debates and start bearing his testimony instead.

Expect the unexpected. The results will be reflected in the polls.

[_EAllusion]

I like to consider the things that could go wrong as a strong influence on voting behavior. A worsened economic state would shift a lot of momentum to Romney as voters look toward trickle down money from lessened capital gains and income tax for the wealthy and possibly the middle class. Also voters might bank on decreased business regulations as a means to set everything straight.

This really misunderstands voter behavior. The vast majority of voters cannot connect policy preferences to outcomes or to other policy preferences. In a survey they might say they favor "deregulation" or its opposite, but when you ask follow-up questions, most people clearly don't have an even approximate idea what that means, why that would work, or how that fits into anything else they might endorse. They say what they do because they have a vague sense of what their "side" is supposed to support, because they respond to crude heuristic cues, or because they are flat guessing.

Worsened economic conditions aide the challenger because a significant influence on voter behavior is a intuitive sense of "how things are going" with bad favoring challengers and good favoring incumbents. I wish it were more sophisticated than that, but it really isn't. Romney could be advocating a whole range of policy solutions and it wouldn't matter barely at all to voters. It could impact elite opinion, which does have its own trickle down effect, but Romney is already the nominee.

[_Bond James Bond]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/2 ... howAll=yes

New polling numbers:

National Gallup Obama 47-45
National Ras Obama 46-45

California Obama 56-37
Colorado Obama 48-44
Michigan Obama 53-39

In other election hilarity Republican Rep. Thad McClotter from Michigan's 11th district (A five time Congressman) will probably fail to even be able to defend his seat because he turned in signatures that appear to have been falsified. A probable Republican hold would flip into a tossup or lean Democratic situation with a strong Democratic challenger in that race.

[_moksha]

So what Nixon did with China, perhaps Romney can do with Obliblish.

[_krose]

And in other news, Republicans announce that they will pour a record billion dollars into the race through various SuperPACs.

That's obscene. Thanks a lot, SCROTUS.

[_Bond James Bond]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/3 ... howAll=yes

Today's poll results:

National Gallup Obama tied 46-46
National Ras Obama tied 45-45
National YouGov Obama 46-43

Missouri (PPP) Obama 45-44 (what?)
Wisconsin (Marquette) Obama 51-43

If that Missouri number is anywhere near close it's bad news for Romney. National polls are effectively tied. Another conglomerate of swing state polling shows that Romney has leads in Arizona, Missouri, Florida (less than 1%), and North Carolina. Obama takes the rest. If these results yielded precisely then today Obama would win 329 to 209.

State Obama Romney Margin Change from 5/24

Arizona 42.8 49 -6.2 -1.9

Colorado 48.9 43.7 5.2 5.2

Florida 44.6 45.5 -0.9 0.3

Iowa 50.7 41.7 9.0 0.0

Michigan 49.2 40 9.2 6.4

Missouri 43.8 48.6 -4.8 0.2

New Hampshire 52.1 42 10.1 0.0

New Mexico 54.2 39.3 14.9 0.9

Nevada 51.8 43.2 8.6 1.0

North Carolina 44.8 47.4 -2.6 0.1

Ohio 48 42 6.0 2.7

Pennsylvania 48.6 41.4 7.2 -1.4

Virginia 49.5 43.5 6.0 -2.8

Wisconsin 50.8 41.1 9.7 7.8

[_Bond James Bond]

Things continue to tighten:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/3 ... howAll=yes

National Gallup Obama 47-44
National Ras Romney 46-45

Colorado Obama 46-45
Iowa Obama tied 44-44
Nevada Obama 48-46
New York Obama 56-31
Ohio Romney 46-44
Washington Obama 51-40

So a question...why are people going to vote for Romney? And being the "NObama" candidate is an acceptable answer (at least it's rational I guess). Voting Romney because he's Republican is decidely less rational IMHO.

[_Bond James Bond]

For election junkies electoral-vote.com is finally going:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[_Brackite]

Things continue to tighten:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/3 ... howAll=yes

National Gallup Obama 47-44
National Ras Romney 46-45

Colorado Obama 46-45
Iowa Obama tied 44-44
Nevada Obama 48-46
New York Obama 56-31
Ohio Romney 46-44
Washington Obama 51-40

So a question...why are people going to vote for Romney? And being the "NObama" candidate is an acceptable answer (at least it's rational I guess). Voting Romney because he's Republican is decidely less rational IMHO.

I think that the main reason why a lot of people are going to vote for Romney is because they believe that he has a lot of business executive experience and knows how to create jobs.
During these first five months of Barack Obama’s fourth year in office, the average unemployment rate is at 8.21%. Now let us compare that with Ronald Reagan’s and Bill Clinton’s first five months of their fourth year in office.
During the first five months of Ronald Reagan’s fourth year in office, the average unemployment rate was at 7.74%. Ronald Reagan ended up winning in a landslide in his re-election bid.
During the first five months of Bill Clinton’s fourth year in office, the average unemployment rate was at 5.56%. Bill Clinton ended up easily winning his re-election bid.
A lot of people believe that Mitt Romney can get the unemployment rate to go lower mainly because of his business executive experience. This Presidential election now looks like it is going to be a very, very close election.

[_Brackite]

Here is some good news from California.


2012 ELECTION: Miller, Dutton top two in Dem-leaning district: http://blogs.pe.com/politics/2012/06/20 ... on-to.html

Miller, Dutton, both Republicans, to face off in November election:
http://www.sbsun.com/news/ci_20799827/m ... z1xL2tNMhQ


The Republicans will retain control over the House of Representatives.