Romney's "bad" week. From 6 points down to tied.

[_bcspace]

In most all things, I try to follow Hanlon’s (or Heinlein’s) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

This is particularly important to remember when looking at polls. Sometimes, however, one must wonder.

As I pointed out yesterday, the result of Romney’s “really bad week” was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there are some odd assumptions in that poll, and others. Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talked about it recently. Asked if the polls were, in his opinion, a fair representation of the electorate, Schoen said:

“The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That’s from the exit polls and that’s about as accurate as you can get….President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it’s about one point off the margin.”

Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”

In fact, Rasmussen keeps a running monthly poll of party identification. In the latest poll, released September 1, they found:

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.

Other polls — including Gallup — apparently have similar assumptions (called “turnout models”) in their polls.

There is a new website, called unskewedpolls.com, that basically reweights the data to fit the Rasmussen party identification. Their results are quite different, giving Romney somewhere between a five and eleven point lead.

Now, this should also be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, they claim (by the site name) to be an unskewed poll. In fact, they’re just a differently skewed take on existing polls. Instead of taking their numbers over, say, Gallup, though, what it should tell us is that even if the polls are being heavily weighted to Obama, Romney’s still essentially tied. Any difference in Romney’s direction in real turnout from the pollster’s assumptions would bring Romney into a lead.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/23/skewed-and-unskewed-polls/

[_Kevin Graham]

pjmedia!

Add another to the list of bcspace's cartoonish sources of information!

LOL.

[_Quasimodo]

pjmedia!

Add another to the list of bcspace's cartoonish sources of information!

LOL.

Poor bc! Where else can he go while grasping at straws? After the dust settles in November, I wonder how he will explain it all? Demonic forces? Voter fraud?

[_Joyful]

pjmedia!

Add another to the list of bcspace's cartoonish sources of information!

LOL.

Poor bc! Where else can he go while grasping at straws? After the dust settles in November, I wonder how he will explain it all? Demonic forces? Voter fraud?

I think you will be the one scratching his head, or whatever it is you scratch...

[_Jason Bourne]

pjmedia!

Add another to the list of bcspace's cartoonish sources of information!

LOL.

Why is it every site or resource that disagrees with you or your sources is cartoonish. Like the Huffington Post is unbiased?

[_Quasimodo]

Poor bc! Where else can he go while grasping at straws? After the dust settles in November, I wonder how he will explain it all? Demonic forces? Voter fraud?

I think you will be the one scratching his head, or whatever it is you scratch...

I'd tell you what I am scratching right now, but it would be impolite.

Like bc, I admire your loyalty in the face of disaster. The collective of those confident in Mitt's victory is becoming an exclusive club. Even confirmed conservatives (you know who I mean) are slipping away at a rapid pace.

We'll talk in November.

[_Brackite]

Gallup now has Obama at 48%, and it now has Romney at 46%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx


Obama will get 47%, 48%, or 49% of the popular vote.
Romney will get 45%, 46%, or 47% of the popular vote.

[_EAllusion]

pjmedia!

Add another to the list of bcspace's cartoonish sources of information!

LOL.

Why is it every site or resource that disagrees with you or your sources is cartoonish. Like the Huffington Post is unbiased?

Virtually every source BCSpace uses is cartoonish in that it is usually openly misleading and very wrong. It's not that it is conservative or disagrees, but that the source is just bad. HuffPo can be terrible about things, especially its fondness for new age woo, and its authors very in quality, but the sources BCSpace relies on are pretty much uniquely atrocious. It's not any liberals fault that he is drawn to that rather than something of higher quality. I think he does it mostly to troll. And it's a bloody shame that the explosion and dominance of dubious media sources has had so much influence on the right.

[_krose]

Poor bc! Where else can he go while grasping at straws? After the dust settles in November, I wonder how he will explain it all? Demonic forces? Voter fraud?

I think you will be the one scratching his head, or whatever it is you scratch...

I'm confused. Why would Quasi be scratching BC's head?

[_Drifting]

I hope Romney gets in.
All the cock ups he makes in office (and there will be plenty) will reflect on the Church. I mean, how can a Priesthood holding President listening to the promptings of the Holy Ghost fail to be anything other than the best President America has ever had?