Gadianton wrote:Here's a fun one that Rick Grunder makes easy since he lists all of the dates from the Late War. For this post, it isn't the way the dates are written that is interesting but the numbers themselves. Suppose that Vincenzo de Francesca had discovered both the Book of Mormon and Late War in a garbage bin with the cover and title page burned off and he wanted to find out which of them were true, both of them bearing a powerful witness but not having the ability to research either.
Well, there's this ancient article by RFMer Duwayne Anderson attempting to refute the Book of Mormon based on dates, and while a bit of an overkill to make the point, it's kind of interesting nonetheless.
http://lds-mormon.com/numbersinthebookofmormon.shtml#f2
The idea is that the human brain is a bad randomizer, which is among other things, why password-cracking software can be effective even when you think you're being really creative. He says that the days of the month when (uncorrelated) notable things happen in history should be random and gives several examples. Well, looking at the Book of Mormon, he sees that all the dates in the Book of Mormon happen at the beginning of the month, suggesting they are contrived. Here is his list of Book of Mormon dates:
day--month
1---1
2---1
4---1
5---2
3---7
4---7
12--10
10--11
If there are 30 days in the month, then you'd expect the average day something happens on to be around 15. His model says the average Book of Mormon day is 3.4 standard deviations from this mean, giving it a 1/2000 chance of being a random sample from a real distribution of historical events. Somebody likely just made them up.
Now for all the suspicion its stylistic gusto raises for a critic, taking just the first 8 dates mentioned in the Late War, to be fair:
1---6
12--7
16--8
19--8
4---10
13--10
25--10
1---1
These days come out 1.34 standard deviations per his model and more or less plausible as real dates that things happened on, despite the possible fabrications for how things happened.
This is awesome. In my mind this is an indictment. Most TBM's wouldn't even give this a second thought. It would just be another attack.