Linda S. Reeves, second counselor in the Relief Society general presidency for adult LDS women, spoke next, cautioning her listeners to watch our for the devil's tools, including "seductive romance novels, TV soap operas, married women and old boyfriends connecting on social media, and pornography."
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
My interest was caught by one commenter who called for a reference on the 'millions more watching by satellite.'
Just quick and dirty: >suppose 1/3 activity rate, so 15m X 1/3 = 5 million. >from BYU vital stats, children < 12 % ranges from 60 to 30 children per 100 adults, with the higher ratio concentrated where there are more members, so let's say there are 50 children per 150 total, or 1/3, therefore 5 million x 2/3 = 3.33 million. >as per Pew forum researchers, 56% of adult Mormons are female, 0.56 x 3.33 = 1.86 million women MAX who could be watching the conference.
Since the church reports 'millions' of women watching, this would mean more than every single adult active Mormon women in the world would have to be watching.
Maybe they count the (shoulders covered, wingless) angels they think they see.
Or is it that men are assigned to watch, to make sure the women get it right?
Lemmie wrote:My interest was caught by one commenter who called for a reference on the 'millions more watching by satellite.'
Just quick and dirty: >suppose 1/3 activity rate, so 15m X 1/3 = 5 million. >from BYU vital stats, children < 12 % ranges from 60 to 30 children per 100 adults, with the higher ratio concentrated where there are more members, so let's say there are 50 children per 150 total, or 1/3, therefore 5 million x 2/3 = 3.33 million. >as per Pew forum researchers, 56% of adult Mormons are female, 0.56 x 3.33 = 1.86 million women MAX who could be watching the conference.
Since the church reports 'millions' of women watching, this would mean more than every single adult active Mormon women in the world would have to be watching.
Maybe they count the (shoulders covered, wingless) angels they think they see.
Or is it that men are assigned to watch, to make sure the women get it right?
Lemmie wrote:My interest was caught by one commenter who called for a reference on the 'millions more watching by satellite.'
Just quick and dirty: >suppose 1/3 activity rate, so 15m X 1/3 = 5 million. >from BYU vital stats, children < 12 % ranges from 60 to 30 children per 100 adults, with the higher ratio concentrated where there are more members, so let's say there are 50 children per 150 total, or 1/3, therefore 5 million x 2/3 = 3.33 million. >as per Pew forum researchers, 56% of adult Mormons are female, 0.56 x 3.33 = 1.86 million women MAX who could be watching the conference.
Since the church reports 'millions' of women watching, this would mean more than every single adult active Mormon women in the world would have to be watching.
Maybe they count the (shoulders covered, wingless) angels they think they see.
Or is it that men are assigned to watch, to make sure the women get it right?
As the concluding speaker, Uchtdorf told a lengthy parable about 11-year-old Eva, who spent a summer with her Great Aunt Rose.
Uchtdorf's story had a simple message: It is the pure love of Christ that gives life its purpose, not circumstances such as marriage, money, education or child-rearing.
"When we love God, we want to serve him. We want to be like him," Rose told the child. "When we love our neighbors, we stop thinking so much about our own problems and help others to solve theirs."
Once again President Uchtdorf is out of step with the preponderance of Mormon thought. That is what makes his such an effective leader.
Lemmie wrote:Are you kidding? Or just joshing me?! I said it was quick and dirty, so I assumed the 0-12 group could stand in for the one minus 0-8 group.
But just for you, assuming the 0-12 group is distributed evenly:
5{1-[2/3)50]/[(2/3)50+100]}(0.56)=2.09.
Still requires 96% of total adult female population to attend. Alas, no angels! Thanks, cinepro.
We know from leaked statistics that there are a mere 5.4 million active Mormons. We know from Ballards address to South Utah that there's a problem getting that 5.4 million to attend or watch conference.
Even if half the active membership was female, saying that "millions" tuned in to watch can be considered a massive overstatement. It's in the same fantasy faith promoting PR poetic licence realm as Monsons "we are fifteen million strong".
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
Lemmie wrote:Are you kidding? Or just joshing me?! I said it was quick and dirty, so I assumed the 0-12 group could stand in for the one minus 0-8 group.
But just for you, assuming the 0-12 group is distributed evenly:
5{1-[2/3)50]/[(2/3)50+100]}(0.56)=2.09.
Still requires 96% of total adult female population to attend. Alas, no angels! Thanks, cinepro.
We know from leaked statistics that there are a mere 5.4 million active Mormons. We know from Ballards address to South Utah that there's a problem getting that 5.4 million to attend or watch conference.
Even if half the active membership was female, saying that "millions" tuned in to watch can be considered a massive overstatement. It's in the same fantasy faith promoting PR poetic licence realm as Monsons "we are fifteen million strong".
Yes, hence the quick and dirty; if I factored in a percentage of active who attend/watch general conferences, let alone other types of conferences, the set of female watchers would be much smaller. My prediction would be far, far less than even half a million. Clearly nowhere near the 'millions' stated.
Lemmie wrote:Yes, hence the quick and dirty; if I factored in a percentage of active who attend/watch general conferences, let alone other types of conferences, the set of female watchers would be much smaller. My prediction would be far, far less than even half a million. Clearly nowhere near the 'millions' stated.
Agreed. But for the sake of balance let's assume 3 of the 5.4 are female and that females are more diligent than males at watching Conference. Considering the age for attendees I'd suggest the absolute maximum audience would be 2 million.
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
