Paul Ryan might be not running for reelection

[_Markk]

He will probably just cash in...book deal and a seat at Fox.

[_Doctor Steuss]

ETA: To Ajax's point, I just noticed that the leading candidate for the Republicans is Nehlen... the lolz just keep coming. I think the GOP can kiss that seat behind, barring something truly game changing.

Great googely-moogely.

It's as if there's a lazy screenwriter that just keeps cooking up depthless caricatures in a trite dark political comedy.

I might tune out for the next season of "America."

[_Xenophon]

Great googely-moogely.

It's as if there's a lazy screenwriter that just keeps cooking up depthless caricatures in a trite dark political comedy.

I might tune out for the next season of "America."

Yeah it is pretty crazy. This is going to make for a hell of a movie in 30 years or so.

Deadline to file is June so I suspect you will see a less crazy candidate jump in between now and then given that Ryan isn't running. It will be interesting to see if we have another one of those scenarios where the hard right splits the primary pushing forward a less than ideal candidate that leads to a Democrat win.

[_subgenius]

I don't know how you view this as anything other than Ryan acknowledging that the House is all but lost.

gee swami, did the glaring record of mid-term elections for countless Presidencies prior cloud your insight here?....incumbency may be the real predictor of loss, and if that is removed from the playing field....party platform may have to stand on its own....i am curious to see if the Democrats will actually have a platform by November, because most likely by then they will need more than just "look at Trump".

[_subgenius]

I am not sure i agree with the "big deal" label...incumbents are a bigger liability (for both parties in reality). I would not underestimate the voters' growing desire for "change"

It's common to see many in the party in power to retire knowing that the party is not going to do well in the next election.

can you provide some historical data to support your conclusion for "common"? History certainly supports the mid-term election trends...but I have no data for "many" incumbents retiring for the reason you state...or for any reason for that matter, so yeah, get some of that CFR for the "many" claim as well.

It can be important to some who plan on coming back at a later time. I suspect Paul Ryan still very much wants to be president and losing the house could hurt future chances at a run for president.

Nice speculation, but again there seems to be no real data from history to support your conclusion. Most recent memory shows that "come back" politicians like Hillary Clinton and Mitt did not benefit from that narrative. Trump, regardless of your value judgment, has truly disrupted modern politics. The style of politics present from WW2 until now has given up the ghost and will recede into a fine chapter among many political science textbooks. This was evident with Hillary Clinton's dramatic loss...the Clintons', without doubt, had mastered this old school of politics, but alas the game had already changed...she was one election cycle too late. Obama's inability to actually deliver "change" at the political system level was perhaps the final nail.

[_subgenius]

Incumbents get about a 7ish point bounce on average in elections according to people like Dave Wasserman, but that's neither here nor there.

Yes, because to a larger extent, historical data does not apply well to our current political paradigm. Just ask the incumbent in Alabama....and reference most every mid-term election in recent history.

You seem to have interpreted "big deal" solely in terms of whether a Democrat or Republican will win his district. That's a minor issue compared to the impact of uncertainty of Republican leadership both before and after the 2018 midterms.

I think you are overestimating Ryan's leadership - his was a titular position, kinda like Kerry being SoS, and whoever gets that World Bank appointment.

Ajax is in this thread pining for someone more aligned with him on immigration issues. He gets why it is a big deal.

You must be comforted by the knowledge that you and Ajax are on the same page.

[_Some Schmo]

Deadline to file is June so I suspect you will see a less crazy candidate jump in between now and then given that Ryan isn't running. It will be interesting to see if we have another one of those scenarios where the hard right splits the primary pushing forward a less than ideal candidate that leads to a Democrat win.

I've listened to the Democrat challenger for that seat, Randy Bryce, talk about going up against Ryan, and he's a likable enough guy. My understanding was that he was doing not too badly even with the prospect of going against Ryan. Now that there's no incumbent, Bryce's chances of actually winning the seat might be pretty good.

EA would likely have a better read on that race though.

[_EAllusion]

It is also reasonable to suspect that this will probably have some serious fundraising implications, especially given Ryan's usually strong ability to fill coffers.

Honestly I think this is 100% the right call for Ryan but if I support the GOP I'm probably not too happy about this.

ETA: To Ajax's point, I just noticed that the leading candidate for the Republicans is Nehlen... the lolz just keep coming. I think the GOP can kiss that seat behindgoodbye, barring something truly game changing.

It's an R+ double digits district. It was gerrymandered to be impenetrable for Paul Ryan back in 2011.

Anyone with an "R" after their name has at least a puncher's chance. Nehlen has gone full on Nazi since the last time the national media paid attention to him, so I pray he doesn't get the nomination.

[_Xenophon]

I've listened to the Democrat challenger for that seat, Randy Bryce, talk about going up against Ryan, and he's a likable enough guy. My understanding was that he was doing not too badly even with the prospect of going against Ryan. Now that there's no incumbent, Bryce's chances of actually winning the seat might be pretty good.

EA would likely have a better read on that race though.

Most of the handicapping sites have moved the seat's ranking towards the middle following the news, notably Cooks now has it at "leans Republican" instead of "solid".

Bryce can segue this into some serious fundraising and morale boosting for his cause but I'd imagine a long road ahead of him, unless the GOP primary plays out well and he gets to go head to head with Nehlen.

ETA: To EA's point that he shared in the middle of me typing the above I'd agree that the general R is strong here (I was unaware that June was deadline for entry with my earlier remarks on Nehlen). Even in Dallet's recent Supreme Court victory she only picked up some 47% of the vote in the district.

[_Some Schmo]

Yeah, and the point about gerrymandering... it's hard to get that optimistic.