Will the Trump Presidency survive until 2020?

[_Kevin Graham]

But there would need to be a two-thirds vote in the Senate to remove Trump as President. And Democrats are Not going to end up with a two-thirds majority in the Senate after the mid-term elections.

We're hoping that, depending on what Mueller uncovers, there will be enough Democrats + moderate Republicans to do that.

[_canpakes]

I’m going with 100% chance of surviving through 2020, if we are talking politically. The only thing that might knock him out otherwise would be if he were to accidentally choke on a burger while simultaneously trying to eat and tweet about his secret crush Hillary Clinton.

[_canpakes]

If not, he'll win again in 2020.

I do think this is wrong. We're peaking economically. Come 2020 we'll have come down from the high water mark of 4.1 GDP that was artificially juiced with tax cuts and Chinese soybean purchases ahead of their retaliatory tariffs. Even optimistic economists are assuming we'll be closer to the same GDP numbers typical of the Obama admin in the 2% range.

Unemployment will have begun to tick back up slightly, as well. I’d expect it to be quite close to the same number as when he took office. Trump won’t be able to point to it and claim that he was able to sustain an improvement over his predecessor.

[_EAllusion]

It's all political. If the Democrats gain control of Congress, he'll be impeached. If not, he'll win again in 2020.

I'm surprised Obama wasn't impeached when the Republicans regained control of Congress. Impeachment will become the new election recall method in the US.

Obama could've been impeached over assassinating US citizens without due process, but there was no political will for that on either side of the aisle. Bush had several issues that could've and probably should've result in impeachment related to his conduct in the War on Terror where torture and domestic spying is concerned, but there again was not enough will for it. Clinton's impeachment for obstruction was quite flimsy, but it actually happened.

It's been a long time since impeachment wasn't a buzz in the background, so it becomes easy to think of it is as just another tool in Constitutional hardball.

The problem is that you confuse the really severe issues deserving of impeachment with mere he-said, she-said political squabbling because you are so thoroughly into the Trump cult of personality. That Trump hasn't been removed from office yet reveals a brokenness in the system that was designed to produce just that outcome. This is where one of of the central faults of the American Constitution, the lack of understanding of how political parties operate, really comes out.

[_honorentheos]

Unemployment will have begun to tick back up slightly, as well. I’d expect it to be quite close to the same number as when he took office. Trump won’t be able to point to it and claim that he was able to sustain an improvement over his predecessor.

That's possible, too. We shouldn't be surprised to see any economic movement downward blamed on Democrats, though, and likely believed by more than just his core base. It's one of the real downsides to the Democrats taking the House. It's almost inevitable that the moves Trump made to overheat the economy will have long burned out by 2020 and reality will have settled in. There's better than even odds that the next downturn will hit in the same timeframe because macrocycles are a thing. The Fed will have increased interests rates further, the housing market will have slowed, construction will also have slowed. With tariffs potentially still going, that slowdown could be dramatic in both construction and manufacturing. It's hard to say how well the intended protected industries will have moved into a resupply position given almost everyone seems to believe the tariffs aren't here to stay.

[_honorentheos]

The economic numbers are undeniably good news for Trump. And you are right, the economy is another variable that will affect his popularity and his support.

But it hasn't.

Actually it has, and it would be good to look at reality here rather than get sucked into a leftwing bubble. When looking at polling about Trump, one has to look at two numbers more than others. There are calcified elements both in his base that simply will not disapprove of him no matter what he does, and those on the left that simple will not approve of him no matter what. Within the hardened arteries of the nation, we're barely able to take the pulse of the nation overall but it seems best felt by looking at independents and the percentage of Republicans who are outside of his base 30%. Keeping in mind that the midterms aren't about blue and purple states going blue but needing to win in reddish purple states in the House and defend the 2012 Democrat Senators who won in red states like McCaskill in Missouri. Most importantly, when the economy is looking up and voters believe Trump deserves credit for it (and many do, what is both accurate and shortsighted, in my opinion) then those politicians running for House and Senate seats will be positioning themselves to take on some of that glow while those who are focused on the Russia investigation or how Trump businesses are getting rich off his Presidency, or bemoaning the deficit increase, or criticizing his immigration actions will simply not be getting through to voters who only care that it seems like they can finally stop holding their breath when it comes to their own precarious finances.

The Obama recovery is doing extremely well and Trump's numbers are still horrible considering the economy. I think it was EAllusion who said Trump's numbers are the worst for any President in history given the economic conditions in his first term.

This isn't the Obama recovery. The current economic environment is under the full influence of Trump policies and his agenda now. The stock market surged and is now volatile based on speculation as to what he was going to do and has actually done. Business is juiced up on the tax reform, reduction of regulations, and the money is flowing because Trump has tossed our reserve gas on the fire to make sure it burned hot. He's behaving like this is the best thing since pizza delivery was invented but it only works because people don't recognize what is going on. It's Trump's economy now, and it will be even more so in the future when the reality of these temporary measures begin to occur as a result. And that's all without bringing up the tariffs and trade disputes. As to popularity, Trump the person is just going to be unpopular with many people, and irrationally popular with others. He took a bad hit with independents over the Putin meeting and forced separation issue, but he's also been riding a wave of sorts with Republicans over the economy. However the numbers get sliced, the economy is working to his current advantage and will likely do so going into the 2018 midterms...but probably not by 2020. It would be best if Democrats and others opposed to Trump used that reality to be prescient as to how this will play out. One doesn't toss a ton of bricks in the air, marvel at how graceful they appear, and avoid having them come crashing down on one's head. Trump the businessman was able to dodge them by using bankruptcy. Trump as president is likely to try and dodge them by claiming it is the result of other people obstructing him after 2018. It's harder to do if we call it now, rather than try and say things are good now because of Obama and the bad that is coming is all on Trump. Now is Trump's, and so is the coming blowback.

[_Maksutov]

Nobody is talking about that good old go to, Wag the Dog. Trump has kept several conflicts on a low boil that could be exploited for their unifying potential.

[_honorentheos]

Hey MeDotOrg

The economic numbers are undeniably good news for Trump. And you are right, the economy is another variable that will affect his popularity and his support. The trick is to stimulate an economy without running trillion dollar deficits. And one of the difficult points of prognostication is how people react when the other shoe drops, and massive cuts in social programs are discussed. This is one of the reasons why you hear Republicans talking about making these tax cuts permanent so quickly, before we start talking about paying the piper.

We do need to recreate the US economy in a way that makes it more sustainable. But going into 2018 it didn't need stimulus which is the real problem with what Trump has done. I think we should detach the question of cuts to the social safety net from the cause-and-effect of the Trump stimulus, though. Cuts to social programs if and when they get proposed to deal with the escalating deficit are political. Conservatives will claim they are needed to balance the budget and decrease the deficit, almost guaranteed. But not before 2018. That would be suicidal. There are actual economic consequences that will follow that are not political, though, and will occur on their own timeline. The long term consequences of Trump's retraction of the global economy, alienation of our allies, cozying up to authoritarians are all concerning but likely fixable with the change in Presidency. But what isn't as easy to repair will be the changes in supply chains and global markets that result from the trade disputes. Businesses that find new suppliers and customers will be far less easily persuaded to buy American and sell American when they've figured out how to buy Chinese and sell EU. Or any number of other permeations of available market matches out on the global stage. We're setting up American businesses to fall behind in severely concerning ways that make no sense at all, and aren't easily fixed once things start to take on momentum in that direction.

But there question is whether or not this will matter to Trump's survival up to 2020, not after. And I'm solidly of the opinion the Russia investigation won't matter unless the Democrats can take the House in 2018. Given the next GDP numbers don't come out until the week before the election and while almost certain to be lower than 4.1%, I strongly believe this last GDP report will be far more important to the election and Trump's survival as President than any of the things noted in the OP.

Seriously, you have to step away from the left side of the political spectrum to get a sense of things. Inside the leftwing media and social circles, the world is falling apart and we're a hairs breadth away from seeing reality forced on those resisting Trump's obvious ineptitude such that they have to act to remove him from office. But one doesn't have to step too far outside of that world to start finding people who don't care about the Mueller investigation, are concerned about the trade wars but also feel like things are moving in a better direction. There are plenty of people who look no further than their own pocketbook. And I'd say they are the majority of people who need persuaded come November to make change happen. Right now, it's unclear why they WOULD vote for change.

[_honorentheos]

Nobody is talking about that good old go to, Wag the Dog. Trump has kept several conflicts on a low boil that could be exploited for their unifying potential.

I have zero guesses how this plays out in reality. I doubt that Trump would try to independently stir things up with Iran but things could flair up with Iran in a heart beat as we saw with the Twitter spurt last week. Oddly, I think neither he nor Kim want to see things deteriorate in that part of the world. Chinese moves in the South China Sea are concerning our allies but we don't seem that interested in Chinese military expansion as we are economically in conflict with them. To me, that is more than a wag the dog issue, though. Trade wars have a way of becoming shooting wars even when neither participant really wanted them to but feel compelled to defend their interests. Who knows.

Anyway, Iran is the most likely candidate for a shooting war to break out right now. And I don't think the Trump admin is working that for political reasons so much as they are just eager and willing to drop bombs if given a defensible reason to do so because Iran. Israel is far more likely to get us dragged into something and they seem to be feeling their oats, shooting down Syrian planes and actively fighting Iranian surrogates in Gaza are bad indicators of the direction that part of the world is heading. But after that, I'm curious where you think there is a pot being kept on simmer in case it needs to be brought to a boil for political expediency?

[_honorentheos]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... spartandhp

I would put this on the list of important considerations when it comes to Trump's future.

One-third of the nation’s most contested House districts are home to major soybean farms, primarily in the Midwest, a USA TODAY analysis shows. President Trump performed strongly in that region in 2016, but the area is now girding for a substantial harvest-time blow from his tariffs, just before voters head to the polls Nov. 6.

From southern Minnesota, where Republicans are hoping to claim an open House seat long held by Democrats, to an Illinois district where Democrats are angling to pick off a Republican incumbent, soybean farmers have watched prices plummet amid an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.

“The short term is what scares us,” said Bill Gordon, a fourth-generation soybean farmer in Southern Minnesota who backed Trump two years ago but is concerned about losing tens of thousands of dollars on this year’s harvest.

“It could definitely be an interesting midterm election.”