Ohio Special Election: Harbinger for Blue Wave?

[_Kevin Graham]

Too close to call right now, though the Republican is probably going to win by fewer than 1000 votes where Trump won by 11 points.

The mere fact that the contest was competitive is likely to be a source of concern for the GOP. If a Republican running in a district that voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 11 percentage points in 2016 required a massive influx of national resources, then dozens of Republicans in more marginal districts appear to be that much more vulnerable.

As the contest tightened in the final weeks, national Republicans privately lamented Balderson’s underwhelming fundraising ability.

Since O’Connor outraised Balderson on the strength of small donations, the national party swooped in to make up the difference. GOP groups outspent their Democratic counterparts in the race by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1.

[_Some Schmo]

Given what we've witnessed since Jan 2017, it should be a blue wave.

However, I have no faith in the American electorate to do what's obviously for their own good. American ignorance is the value of the day.

[_aussieguy55]

I thought the shape of the boundaries to the electorate were strange. Is this an example of gerrymandering? In Australia we have an independent commission working out electorates and general if you get over 50% of total vote you will get more that 50% of the seats.

[_Chap]

I thought the shape of the boundaries to the electorate were strange. Is this an example of gerrymandering? In Australia we have an independent commission working out electorates and general if you get over 50% of total vote you will get more that 50% of the seats.

That's because you people down there haven't worked out what being a republic is all about. People who win power get to fix things so they keep it forever: one person, one vote, one time.

Cast off the remains of the colonial yoke, and go forward to true democracy!

While you're at it, why not get yourselves an electoral college too?

[Guest]

I thought the shape of the boundaries to the electorate were strange. Is this an example of gerrymandering? In Australia we have an independent commission working out electorates and general if you get over 50% of total vote you will get more that 50% of the seats.

Although sometimes districts are very weird shapes because of gerrymandering, weird district shapes aren't ipso factso gerrymandering. Sometimes there are very legitimate reasons for shaping a district in unique ways (geography and county borders being among the primary reasons).

For evidence of this I present to you 538's Atlas of Redistricting, I've shared it here before but it is a fun little interactive tool that allows you to redistrict the US or a specific state based on certain criteria. You'll note from that chart that even if you try to maximize highly competitive districts or balance districts to the partisan lean of the electorate that you still wind up with some odd shapes. Essentially the only way not to is to make the districts as compact as possible while ignoring county lines, which can create a whole slew of other problems given how elections are managed currently (not a value statement of the status quo, just a note about the complexity of the issue).

ETA: Image of highly competitive district for quick reference:

[_Chap]

just a note about the complexity of the issue

And that's why it is such a good idea to have these things done by an independent electoral commission, and keep such power out of the hands of elected politicians who want above all to get re-elected.

[_Xenophon]

And that's why it is such a good idea to have these things done by an independent electoral commission, and keep such power out of the hands of elected politicians who want above all to get re-elected.

Agreed entirely.

[_DarkHelmet]

Given what we've witnessed since Jan 2017, it should be a blue wave.

However, I have no faith in the American electorate to do what's obviously for their own good. American ignorance is the value of the day.

I agree. While it seems there is a lot of disgust with this president and his party right now, it also wouldn't surprise me if he whips his followers into a frenzy to not only defeat democrats, but also old-school republicans over the next couple cycles. He can't do it with his 35%, but that 35% has taken over the entire GOP, leaving old school republicans with the option of voting Democrat or Trumptard, and most will choose Trumptard.

[_Some Schmo]

I agree. While it seems there is a lot of disgust with this president and his party right now, it also wouldn't surprise me if he whips his followers into a frenzy to not only defeat democrats, but also old-school republicans over the next couple cycles. He can't do it with his 35%, but that 35% has taken over the entire GOP, leaving old school republicans with the option of voting Democrat or Trumptard, and most will choose Trumptard.

You can say what you want about the tribal mentality - it makes for very loyal voters.

I'm kind of surprised Drumpf's team hasn't co-opted BLM to mean Blind Loyalty Matters.

[_Bach]

What’s the minimum door fee to get into this self pity party?