Dow is currently in a freefall

[_Res Ipsa]

Q: What do you get when you only report big market losses and not market gains?

A: This thread.

[_Kevin Graham]

Q: What do you get when you only report big market losses and not market gains?

A: This thread.

The market has basically been one big flat line since this thread was created more than 13 months ago.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Here's a fun website:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jo ... ical-chart

It's neat because it has a lot of charts.

- Doc

[_Kevin Graham]

The DOW is poised to finally break out of correction territory since January 2018.

[_Res Ipsa]

Q: What do you get when you only report big market losses and not market gains?

A: This thread.

The market has basically been one big flat line since this thread was created more than 13 months ago.

Yep. Big flat line is not freefall.

[_honorentheos]

The DOW is a distraction, and a short term one at that. The trend is always generally up though as they say, past performance is no guarantee yadda-yadda-yadda.

There are serious systemic economic issues the Trump administration is deeply involved in and, I would argue, making the future bleak for middle and lower income Americans. Everything he does has all the markings of a corporate raider loading up on debt and making organizational changes that sacrifices the future sustainability of an organization for immediate gains. His tax overhaul, the current attempts to manipulate the Fed, his budget and deregulation priorities, his energy "policy"...this a developing disaster that will play out over decades. Focusing on the dips and climbs of the DOW is only helping distract from that and plays into the hands of those who benefit from these changes and will be ok when the bills come due.

[_Kevin Graham]

Yep. Big flat line is not freefall.

Uh, it was in a freefall when I said freefall.

[_honorentheos]

As an aside, the conventional wisdom is that the current state of the economy has very little to do with the direction of the current Presidential administration. So, while the state of the economy is often a key factor in determining presidential election outcomes, the public perception of the economy overestimates the influence of the President.

The Trump administration is messing with this, but not in simple, unidirectional ways. Not least of which is due to his election having direct influence on investment behaviors that moved the markets dues to investors wanting to get in on profits predicted to result from his deregulation agenda, tax cut promises, and the yet-to-be realized infrastructure program. The immediate upswing in the markets starting in November 2016 were the result of already upward movement in the US economy being juiced by investors moving money in as anticipation rather than realization of anything Trump actually did. This baking in of the potential gains meant the markets then reacted to what he actually did and didn't do in ways that had unusual influence on the public perception the economy was finally breaking out of the freeze of the 2008 collapse. This was directly due to Trump and bucks the conventional wisdom.

But where the conventional wisdom holds true is two-fold. First, the exuberance that accompanied promises of market-friendly action on the part of the administration was enabled by the foundational strength of the economy coming out of the Obama years. Had the economy looked weak or there been economic storm clouds evident, the market would have been much more restrained. And second, the fundamental reality holds true that Trump's actual actions are just now sprouting up and the true fruit of his economic agenda will be harvested in years to come. And those are all moving in challenging ways that, while not all immediately and obviously damaging, will certainly mean the US is even more in debt, less sustainably structured, and oriented more in favor of economic inequality than it was at the beginning of his administration. His protectionist, tariff-oriented behaviors are in direct opposition to typical conservative thought which has few modern precedents though a few exist such as the Bush 2 steel tariffs that ended badly. Throw in a Fed that is behaving with less long-term focus and beholden to a Presidential attempt to maximize short term gains and we may see people completely misjudge the absolute economic disaster that might define the Trump legacy, but only because of the complete fuck-all that it made of both conventional wisdom and public perception.

[_Res Ipsa]

Yep. Big flat line is not freefall.

Uh, it was in a freefall when I said freefall.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=48431&p=1175437#p1172946

[_subgenius]

Yep. Big flat line is not freefall.

Uh, it was in a freefall when I said freefall.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=48431&p=1175437#p1172946