Gadianton wrote:Wiki wrote:Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas he stands to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).
Pensée 233 does not mention Hell at all. It begins with a couple of paragraphs about how the nature of God is unknowable and God's exisistence is logically undecidable. So it's pretty clear that the Wager is solely about the existence of God as an unknowable infinite being, and not about believing in any particular theory of what God is like.
The final paragraphs of Pensée 233 do recommend following specific religious observances, but not because they are the subject of the Wager. Rather, Pascal explicitly accepts that some people may be persuaded by his Wager argument that it would be a good plan for them to believe in God, yet find themselves unable to put the plan into practice because they cannot simply choose to believe. Pascal suggests that they should go through the motions of living as though they believed in God, because by doing so they will gradually come to believe in God for real: fake it till you make it.
Pascal doesn't make clear in or near Pensée 233 why believing in God should bring an infinite gain if you're right. Maybe he spells this out somewhere much earlier in the the Pensées, but they're a loose collection of jottings that Pascal never organized into a single coherent argument. So if I simply lift out the Wager itself from the rest of the text, without attaching it to any specific theory of how eternal judgement works, then I really don't think I'm violently cutting the Wager out of its context. That's how it's written.
I think it's a valid objection to the Wager that the postulated infinite reward for belief in God has been arbitrarily assumed. It's certainly not clear to me that any reasonable God is really going to reward anyone so disproportionately just for their opinions. I don't think the objection about there being many religions really has anything to do with Pascal's Wager, however. I think the "there are many religions" point is more an objection to crude "turn or burn" appeals that have been confused with Pascal's idea. "Believe everything I say because otherwise you're going to Hell" is after all a much older spiel than Pascal's, and it's clearly not what Pascal said. So it makes no sense to refer to that as Pascal's Wager.
The worthwhile idea that I see in Pascal's Wager, and for which I think Pascal deserves credit, is the forthright emphasis on belief as a game move in a game with insufficient information. We are not spectators. We can do our best to judge what is true, but in concrete terms what belief means is that we act in certain ways during our finite lifetimes, and think in certain ways. Those are moves in a game that we don't understand but from which we cannot escape. So we should think in terms of risk and reward rather than knowledge and proof.