Dow is currently in a freefall

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated PG through PG-13.
Post Reply
_honorentheos
_Emeritus
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:17 am

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _honorentheos »

subgenius wrote:
honorentheos wrote:That's a significant point people probably don't recognize as an issue because it seems like businesses doing what they do so it shouldn't concern the average person. But what that number represents is the amount of money that could have gone into the economy in ways that benefited people as jobs, equipment investment, or research that instead was diverted into boosting their stock price. It reflects how the Trump tax cuts essentially made a few people much more wealthy than they would have been otherwise while giving the American people as a whole a bill in the form of increased national debt. It should make your average pre-2016 Republican explode with rage if they were being consistent.

Your note here and the analysis suffer from the same myopia,
from the cited article:
"The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that the money from buybacks vanishes into thin air,”

No it doesn't. We know where buyback money goes. They boost share prices while putting the money in shareholder pockets. It is moving money around in a way that makes their shares seem more attractive without actually doing anything to expand the business. And you misread the comment. He was saying one of the models was built to just subtract out money that went to buybacks without accounting for it somewhere else. He was pointing out that approach would overestimate how much lower the market would be without the buybacks that occurred. In essence, he's saying if that money had gone to other things we'd see those improvements show up in the value of the stock due to actual increases in investment not through a money game. They comment later that one model shows the market at only 2% lower had the money been reinvested in the business instead though he thinks that is off, too.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth?
~ Eiji Yoshikawa
_honorentheos
_Emeritus
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:17 am

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _honorentheos »

For subbie and those who are in love with Trump's economy, here's the part from Kevin's link where the article reiterates what I said using the language of putting the shareholder's interest first:

The final scenario studies the performance of the S&P 500 total return index if companies reinvested buyback funds into their businesses, “for expansion, productivity gains, or higher wages as a way to retain talent and motivate employees.”Clissold estimates that the S&P 500 would have returned just 2% less since 2011.

A caveat to this analysis is that it assumes that companies could earn the same rate of return on the additional $3.5 trillion they spent on buybacks as they did on previous investments. “Since capital expenditures have been noticeably light this cycle, it’s reasonable to assume that management teams did not see such high returns-on-investment in potential projects,” he said.
In other words, corporations have fallen in love with buybacks for the very simple reason that they have been providing the best returns to shareholders. And that’s likely why firms are on pace to match or exceed last year’s record of $1.08 trillion in buyback announcements, according to Michael Schoonover, chief operating officer at Catalyst Capital Advisors and portfolio manager of the firm’s buyback-focused fund.

Schoonover said, in an interview, that through the end of April, $355 billion in buybacks were announced, which is actually ahead of the $321 billion pace through April of last year. Meanwhile, companies are following through with their share repurchase plans at a healthy pace.

“Looking at the 300 largest buyback announcements, what I found is that companies have already completed more than two-thirds” of the $1.08 trillion announced last year. He says that’s a higher completion rate than companies have typically met in the past, and is even more impressive given that much of the buyback plans announced last year were set to take place over the course of several years. “Companies are taking their buyback commitments more seriously,” he said.


Those first few sentences should be read and reread.

The final scenario studies the performance of the S&P 500 total return index if companies reinvested buyback funds into their businesses, “for expansion, productivity gains, or higher wages as a way to retain talent and motivate employees.”Clissold estimates that the S&P 500 would have returned just 2% less since 2011.

A caveat to this analysis is that it assumes that companies could earn the same rate of return on the additional $3.5 trillion they spent on buybacks as they did on previous investments. “Since capital expenditures have been noticeably light this cycle, it’s reasonable to assume that management teams did not see such high returns-on-investment in potential projects,”


That is the Trump economy in a nutshell. It isn't about jobs or the average person working for a paycheck. It's about maximizing return on investment for shareholders, period. And that's why the national debt is skyrocketing under a Republican president.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth?
~ Eiji Yoshikawa
_Bach
_Emeritus
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 11:41 pm

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _Bach »

We’re at our all time lowest unemployment rate since the launch of Apollo 11 in 1969. Government pensions funds are having a banner two years in a huge move to cover the trillions of unfunded liabilities, mostly caused by democratic state and federal policies. Millions of 401k plans are probably at their all time highs benefiting workers. Minority unemployment is at all time lows.

But I completely understand the whining of KG and other liberals here. By all means let’s go back to the 8 years of Obama/Clinton/Biden. And let’s hurry to get back there.
_Kevin Graham
_Emeritus
Posts: 13037
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:44 pm

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Bach wrote:We’re at our all time lowest unemployment rate since the launch of Apollo 11 in 1969. Government pensions funds are having a banner two years in a huge move to cover the trillions of unfunded liabilities, mostly caused by democratic state and federal policies. Millions of 401k plans are probably at their all time highs benefiting workers. Minority unemployment is at all time lows.

But I completely understand the whining of KG and other liberals here. By all means let’s go back to the 8 years of Obama/Clinton/Biden. And let’s hurry to get back there.


Minority unemployment has been in a nosedive since 2012. Nothing to do with Trump. The market has been a big flat line the past 16 months. It jumped after the tax law passed but as this article explains, corporate buybacks is the reason for that. Unemployment just dropped 2 points because the Labor participation rate just dropped 4 points. Remember the LPR? No, if course not.


It would help if Trump people weren't so illiterate on the subject.
_honorentheos
_Emeritus
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:17 am

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _honorentheos »

Bach wrote:...I completely understand...

Somehow I really doubt you do.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth?
~ Eiji Yoshikawa
_Bach
_Emeritus
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 11:41 pm

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _Bach »

Kevin Graham wrote:
Bach wrote:We’re at our all time lowest unemployment rate since the launch of Apollo 11 in 1969. Government pensions funds are having a banner two years in a huge move to cover the trillions of unfunded liabilities, mostly caused by democratic state and federal policies. Millions of 401k plans are probably at their all time highs benefiting workers. Minority unemployment is at all time lows.

But I completely understand the whining of KG and other liberals here. By all means let’s go back to the 8 years of Obama/Clinton/Biden. And let’s hurry to get back there.

Minority unemployment has been in a nosedive since 2012. Nothing to do with Trump. The market has been a big flat line the past 16 months. It jumped after the tax law passed but as this article explains, corporate buybacks is the reason for that. Unemployment just dropped 2 points because the Labor participation rate just dropped 4 points. Remember the LPR? No, if course not.

Looks like we have one vote to bring back the Biden/Obama economy and policies.
_honorentheos
_Emeritus
Posts: 11104
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:17 am

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _honorentheos »

Bach, how would you describe the George W. Bush economy?
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth?
~ Eiji Yoshikawa
_canpakes
_Emeritus
Posts: 8541
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2011 6:54 am

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _canpakes »

Bach wrote:We’re at our all time lowest unemployment rate since the launch of Apollo 11 in 1969. Government pensions funds are having a banner two years in a huge move to cover the trillions of unfunded liabilities, mostly caused by democratic state and federal policies. Millions of 401k plans are probably at their all time highs benefiting workers. Minority unemployment is at all time lows.


Yes, they are. So let's look at that.

Using the graph below from the BLS, can you point to where Trump's policies cause the unemployment rate to deviate from the longer-term trend?

https://data.bls.gov/generated_files/gr ... 549965.gif

Test your skills, bach.
Last edited by Guest on Sun May 05, 2019 8:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
_canpakes
_Emeritus
Posts: 8541
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2011 6:54 am

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _canpakes »

honorentheos wrote:Bach, how would you describe the George W. Bush economy?

Imma gonna just guess that our resident faux banker lacks the "intellectual cap ex" to answer the question.
_Kevin Graham
_Emeritus
Posts: 13037
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:44 pm

Re: Dow is currently in a freefall

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Um.

Never mind.
Post Reply