The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Gunnar wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:Will Trump listen to the experts at the CDC? Or will he listen to Rush Limbaugh's claim that the press is over-hyping the risk to hurt Trump?

It doesn't help that the guy who is supposed to be in charge doesn't understand that the Johns Hopkins website (which I accessed with no problem last night) is based on information on both the CDC and WHO websites. I believe there are comparable maps on both sites.

This is one of the things that scares me the most about Trump as President. This country is now being led by a man who refuses to listen to any experts, however eminently well qualified, who say anything, however well corroborated, that conflicts with his preconceptions about what is true or what he thinks ought to be true or wishes were true. His ignorance about science and how things in general actually work is abysmal, and he displays almost zero interest and intellectual curiosity in learning anything beyond what he thinks he already knows.


Well, it was obvious to me that the President didn't understand what was going on. But he put Pence in charge, who did seem to have a pretty good handle on the situation. I'm mildly optimistic this is one issue where the experts will be listened to.

Ironically, during the press conference, the CDC told the Chronicle that the newest case was not a traveler that was infected overseas. They currently don't know how he was infected. That means we have a secondary or perhaps tertiary infection. This is how outbreaks begin. You can bet the CDC and local health department are both scrambling to figure out how this person became infected.
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_Gunnar
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Gunnar »

Res Ipsa wrote:Well, it was obvious to me that the President didn't understand what was going on. But he put Pence in charge, who did seem to have a pretty good handle on the situation. I'm mildly optimistic this is one issue where the experts will be listened to.

Ironically, during the press conference, the CDC told the Chronicle that the newest case was not a traveler that was infected overseas. They currently don't know how he was infected. That means we have a secondary or perhaps tertiary infection. This is how outbreaks begin. You can bet the CDC and local health department are both scrambling to figure out how this person became infected.

I hope you're right about Pence having a good handle on the situation, but is that going to be enough to offset the damage Trump has already done by dismantling Obama Era disease response teams and protocol for no other reason than his hatred and jealousy of Obama?

Laurie Garrett, science journalist and health policy analyst, talks with Rachel Maddow about the government response structure put in place by the Obama administration in response to Ebola that was removed by the Trump administration, leaving the U.S. unprepared for a potential spread of the coronavirus, and unlikely to follow China's model of containment.
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

So, Pence was Governor when the first US case of MERS showed up in Indiana. Here’s a description of the response. https://www.astho.org/Infectious-Diseas ... -CoV-Case/ That experience puts him light years ahead of Trump. And he’s got a ton of incentive to get this right.

I think it’s too early to know whether Trump’s actions have resulted in harm. So far, the administration has done a pretty good job of delaying an outbreak, which gives states and communities time to prepare. I’m not sure what else could have been done. The main problem in the US is that the initial test kits sent to the states were defective. As a result, we’ve tested a relatively small number of people. But I’ve seen no evidence that the test kit problem was caused by Trump’s actions.

I suppose one could argue that Trump’s belligerent attitude toward China has something to do with China’s refusal to let CDC personnel into China. But that’s pure speculation.

There will be plenty of time to pint fingers. Right now, I’m more interested in making sure we protect the population that is vulnerable to this virus.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

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Well. Phew. The stocks are looking good. Phew. Thank damned god the stocks are good.

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

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_Philo Sofee
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Philo Sofee »

That is all billionaires have ever cared about, their money. That's some President we have..... stocks are going up? Alarm over, Coronavirus won't hurt us, we can pay it to leave us alone. I'm damn glad I stocked up on my blue chips!
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_MsJack
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _MsJack »

Ironically, during the press conference, the CDC told the Chronicle that the newest case was not a traveler that was infected overseas. They currently don't know how he was infected. That means we have a secondary or perhaps tertiary infection. This is how outbreaks begin. You can bet the CDC and local health department are both scrambling to figure out how this person became infected.

This is extremely worrisome. Most likely we already have dozens if not hundreds of low-grade infections in the county that were indistinguishable from a cold/flu, that people didn't seek treatment for. We'll probably have known community spreading by the end of March.

I guess we're about to find out what the actual death rate is with decent healthcare, assuming U. S. hospitals don't get overwhelmed.
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_Icarus
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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_Chap
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Chap »

MsJack wrote:I guess we're about to find out what the actual death rate is with decent healthcare, assuming U. S. hospitals don't get overwhelmed.


Do I misread you , or am I to understand that you think that the US will be the first case of a country that has 'decent healthcare' experiencing cases of COVID-19?

If life expectancy is some kind of clue to the quality of a country's overall health case, taken over its whole population, maybe the table here is relevant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... UNDP_(2018)

The US is well below all the countries of western Europe, Japan, and Korea to name only a few. Several of those countries are already coping with significant outbreaks.
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_MsJack
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _MsJack »

Chap wrote:
MsJack wrote:I guess we're about to find out what the actual death rate is with decent healthcare, assuming U. S. hospitals don't get overwhelmed.


Do I misread you , or am I to understand that you think that the US will be the first case of a country that has 'decent healthcare' experiencing cases of COVID-19?

If life expectancy is some kind of clue to the quality of a country's overall health case, taken over its whole population, maybe the table here is relevant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... UNDP_(2018)

The US is well below all the countries of western Europe, Japan, and Korea to name only a few. Several of those countries are already coping with significant outbreaks.

No; I'm well aware that the US lags behind a number of other developed nations in healthcare. But most of the deaths have come from China (esp. Wuhan), where many, many people reported being turned away from overcrowded hospitals. Even some of those admitted were simply put in a bed and given little care.

Japan has excellent healthcare and has lost 4 so far plus 4 from the Diamond Princess out of 912 cases total; I believe all were in their 80s. So Japan could be an indicator of what I'm saying. Or Japan could lose more people and their death rate will mirror China's. We'll see.

Japan does appear to have phenomenally screwed up the Diamond Princess quarantine, but quarantine and healthcare aren't the same.

Italy concerns me as they have excellent healthcare and have also seen a high number of deaths. An aged population could be part of the reason for that (and could be part of the problem in Japan as well).
"It seems to me that these women were the head (κεφάλαιον) of the church which was at Philippi." ~ John Chrysostom, Homilies on Philippians 13

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_moksha
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _moksha »

China does have some factors which would affect the spread of a contagion differently than most Western countries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P-P4vrY1Oc
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