The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Uh oh.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... s-economy/

It’s March 1st.

- Doc

[_Jersey Girl]

So Walmart was a FUBAR just now. Went in to pick up a coupla things. Of interest is what wasn't on the shelves.

Clorox Wipes
Hand sanitizer
Flu and Cold medicines
Supplements
Fresh Basil*

To be accurate, there were some supplements still left but no zinc and not many of the vitamins I take (only the mini size was left) so I opted for a big honkin' multi with zinc and B12 this time because why not.

I overheard a mother with her boys asking a Walmart worker if they had any medical masks. He said they'd be in on the 14th. Good luck with that sis.

You can tell people not to panic and they still do.

*I really needed that darn basil for my vegan recipe.

[_Res Ipsa]

From the same website:

https://www.worldometers.information/coronavirus/#countries

I mean, if you want to split hairs over a 130 deaths, feel free to get r____ over your retardery.

- Doc

Doc, write the following on the nearest chalkboard 100 times: "I will not be fooled by my own confirmation bias."

If you'd been following closely, you'd notice that the Worldometer site has been lagging in reporting data -- probably because they've been scrambling to increase capacity to keep up with the increased volume. Here are the totals of new deaths reported for the last five days from the WHO -- the organization that compiles the reports from each country.

March 1: China 35 deaths. Rest of world: 18 deaths.
Feb 29: China 47 deaths. Rest of world: 19 deaths.
Feb. 28: China 44 deaths. Rest of world: 10 deaths.
Feb. 27: China 29 deaths. Rest of world: 16 deaths.

If you didn't live with your head stuck up the ass end of the internet looking for conspiracy theory geniuses, you'd understand what the numbers actually say. China shut down their damned manufacturing sector for a month to try and get a handle on an epidemic. They quarantined entire cities. They quarantined all diagnosed patients. And then they tracked down everyone who had contact and forcibly quarantined them, too. And through those draconian measures, they reversed the trend in new cases. Until now. Now, the daily totals of new cases are increasing again in Hubei as the Chinese are trying to restart at least some of their economy.

The totals that get reported are cases confirmed by testing. And at the start of epidemic there were no tests. There was a period when it just looked like a few more old folks were dying of pneumonia this year. And there was a period when the availability of testing kits was limited, so they couldn't test everyone they suspected of having the disease. On Feb. 12, they started releasing data on people who showed clinical evidence of having the disease but hadn't been able to test. That's something we still don't do in the U.S. even today. Had we done so, we've had reported lots more cases than we have by sticking to "confirmed" cases. The numbers they released on the 12th included past cases that, upon review of medical records, very likely were coronavirus cases. But I think they've been a little too busy with an epidemic to go back and retroactively adjust the past numbers to add those in properly.

And the Chinese also know that all they've done over the last month was bought some time. They're still building hospitals and adding acute care beds like crazy. Because they know that all they can do is hope to slow things down and delay the peak strain on their medical resources.

The early numbers are no doubt understated for practical reasons. But the notion that some genius in China said "I know -- let's use a quadratic equation to fake the numbers" based on numbers that we know were influenced both by draconian measures taken by the Chinese government and the limited availability of testing kits is beyond stupid.

[_Res Ipsa]

So Walmart was a ____ just now. Went in to pick up a coupla things. Of interest is what wasn't on the shelves.

Clorox Wipes
Hand sanitizer
Flu and Cold medicines
Supplements
Fresh Basil*

To be accurate, there were some supplements still left but no zinc and not many of the vitamins I take (only the mini size was left) so I opted for a big honkin' multi with zinc and B12 this time because why not.

I overheard a mother with her boys asking a Walmart worker if they had any medical masks. He said they'd be in on the 14th. Good luck with that sis.

You can tell people not to panic and they still do.


*I really needed that darn basil for my vegan recipe.

Yup. Here at Ground Zero, we had a run on some Costcos. I don't know about Wal-mart. My local Safeway was better stocked this morning, but who knows how it was today.

[_Res Ipsa]

It’s pretty likely that it’s been circulating here for six weeks.

That's a pretty good guess. I thought of you when I read this newsfeed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/li ... spartanntp

Yeah, thanks. I think it's a pretty good guess, too. Here's to hoping it goes easy in your neck of the woods.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

This guy has what appears to be some pretty solid math when figuring infection rates and death tolls:

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/ ... -in-china/

tl;dr all his posts - You can probably count on worldwide death rate of 2.5% to 3.5%, at least that's what the numbers are bearing out right now.

This is me:



This is RI:



This is Dr. Shades:



- Doc

[_Icarus]

A second person has died in Washington tonight.

[_MsJack]

A second person has died in Washington tonight.

My dad (early 60s) and step-mom (mid-50s) are in Pierce County. My father works for King County corrections. Both have had recent surgeries and are not in great health right now.

Really worrying.

[_MsJack]

Yup. Here at Ground Zero, we had a run on some Costcos. I don't know about Wal-mart. My local Safeway was better stocked this morning, but who knows how it was today.

I was still able to find hand sanitizer at the Dollar Store, of all places.

I want a few for the jiu-jitsu studio in case they get scarce.

[_Jersey Girl]

So Walmart was a ____ just now. Went in to pick up a coupla things. Of interest is what wasn't on the shelves.

Clorox Wipes
Hand sanitizer
Flu and Cold medicines
Supplements
Fresh Basil*

To be accurate, there were some supplements still left but no zinc and not many of the vitamins I take (only the mini size was left) so I opted for a big honkin' multi with zinc and B12 this time because why not.

I overheard a mother with her boys asking a Walmart worker if they had any medical masks. He said they'd be in on the 14th. Good luck with that sis.

You can tell people not to panic and they still do.


*I really needed that darn basil for my vegan recipe.

Yup. Here at Ground Zero, we had a run on some Costcos. I don't know about Wal-mart. My local Safeway was better stocked this morning, but who knows how it was today.

I believe you. Over here it's either the snowstorm (snowing as I type this) or the coronapocalypse. Hard to say. We're always stocked up on things* this time of year anyway so it's not a huge deal for us.

I just replenish a bit/top it off when I get out again.

*water, wipes, food, paper goods...all the things.