The coronavirus spread updated in real time

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated PG through PG-13.
Post Reply
_Jersey Girl
_Emeritus
Posts: 34407
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:16 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Jersey Girl wrote:I read this last night before turning in. Will you guys please take a look and comment? I am not familiar with this website. Is the antiviral medication mentioned here a thing do you think?

Four Ways Experts Say Coronavirus Nightmare Could End

https://www.thedailybeast.com/four-ways ... d?ref=home


It could be a thing. Lots of researchers are working on it. Still to early to tell.

A couple of other things:

1. The phase 1 vaccine trial mentioned in the article began today.

2. We don't know how much immunity COVID-19 occurs or how long it lasts. If I recall correctly, Coronaviruses tend to confer relatively short-lived immunity. So it might not be possible to develop herd immunity without help from a vaccine.

3. There is a fifth possible ending: it doesn't really end. It becomes endemic in the population and flares up from time to time.

The Daily Beast would not be my preferred source for pandemic information, but the interview is with an epidemiologist who sounds in with what epidemiologists are saying.



Yes I know about the Phase 1 vaccine. Roll out wouldn't be for a year or more, so far as I know. Thanks for running through that!
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
_Res Ipsa
_Emeritus
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:37 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

I listened to the WHO press conference today. I found it confusing. In his opening remarks, Dr. Tedros emphasized testing: test, test, test. It sounded like he was saying that everyone with symptoms should be tested. Later in the press conference, he clarified that all "suspected cases" should be tested. "Suspected cases" is a term of art at the WHO and is specifically defined. I looked at the definition again, and spotted a change at the end of February that I hadn't noticed. WHO does recommend testing a broader swath of people with "mild" symptoms. The requirements are (1) acute respiratory illness (fever plus at least one sign of respiratory disease; (2) no other etiology that explains the symptoms; and (3) " a history of travel to or residence in a country, area or territory that has reported local transmission of COVID-19 disease during the 14 days prior to symptom onset" "Local transmission" is another term of art, and is defined in the daily situation reports: "Local transmission indicates locations where the source of infection is within the reporting location."

Both King and Snohomish Counties are locations where local transmission has been reported. So, under WHO guidelines, people who meet conditions (1) and (2) should be tested in those counties. In other areas of the country, not yet.

This made me curious, so I checked for federal, state and local testing guidelines in my area.

The CDC offers some "guidance" to help individual doctors decide who to test:

Clinicians should continue to work with their local and state health departments to coordinate testing through public health laboratories. In addition, COVID-19 diagnostic testing, authorized by the Food and Drug Administration under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), is becoming available in clinical laboratories. This additional testing capacity will allow clinicians to consider COVID-19 testing for a wider group of symptomatic patients.

Clinicians should use their judgment to determine if a patient has signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and whether the patient should be tested. Most patients with confirmed COVID-19 have developed fever1 and/or symptoms of acute respiratory illness (e.g., cough, difficulty breathing). Priorities for testing may include:

Hospitalized patients who have signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19 in order to inform decisions related to infection control.
Other symptomatic individuals such as, older adults and individuals with chronic medical conditions and/or an immunocompromised state that may put them at higher risk for poor outcomes (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, receiving immunosuppressive medications, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease).
Any persons including healthcare personnel2, who within 14 days of symptom onset had close contact3 with a suspect or laboratory-confirmed4 COVID-19 patient, or who have a history of travel from affected geographic areas5 (see below) within 14 days of their symptom onset.
There are epidemiologic factors that may also help guide decisions about COVID-19 testing. Documented COVID-19 infections in a jurisdiction and known community transmission may contribute to an epidemiologic risk assessment to inform testing decisions. Clinicians are strongly encouraged to test for other causes of respiratory illness (e.g., influenza).

Mildly ill patients should be encouraged to stay home and contact their healthcare provider by phone for guidance about clinical management. Patients who have severe symptoms, such as difficulty breathing, should seek care immediately. Older patients and individuals who have underlying medical conditions or are immunocompromised should contact their physician early in the course of even mild illness.


The state of Washington just provided updated guidelines today:

[quote]There are currently no restrictions on who can be tested for COVID-19 and commercial testing is becoming more available. Healthcare providers may test any patient with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 (e.g., fever, cough, shortness of breath) but until testing supplies and laboratory capacity are widely available, public health is asking providers to follow the below recommendations.

The following patients with COVID-19 symptoms should be tested for COVID-19:

 Patients hospitalized with severe lower respiratory illness
 Staff that work in any setting where healthcare services are delivered (e.g., clinics, hospitals, behavioral health care clinics).
 Patients in other public safety occupations (e.g., law enforcement, fire fighter, EMS)
 Patients who live or work in in an institutional setting (e.g., corrections, long term care
facility, homeless/shelters)

The following patients with COVID-19 symptoms should contact their healthcare provider and be tested for COVID-19 if their symptoms worsen or their healthcare provider recommends testing:

 Patients older than 60 years
 Patients with underlying medical conditions
 Pregnant women

Younger, healthy individuals with mild illness do not need to be tested and testing is not recommended in persons who are asymptomatic. A negative test result does not rule out an infection.

And finally, my local health department simply links to the updated state guidance.

I need to check the transcript when it's posted, but Dr. Tedros sounded like he was recommending that all people with COVID symptoms be isolated away from their homes in a dedicated isolation facility. This would be like, for example, what China did in stadiums. And that people in close contact with confirmed cases also be isolated away from their homes in a separate facility. I think the current guidelines allow for self-isolation at home, but I thought Dr. Tedros was saying the best practice was to use separate facilities.

Finally, the emphasis was really on contact tracing, which is very labor intensive. Our first case involved over 200 interviews of contacts. And they never found who he transmitted it to. I checked with my local health department to see if they are still doing it at all. Yesterday, they listed 0 cases under investigation.

Then, I watched the Feds' press conference. Trump's new rationalization is something like "we had to destroy the testing system to save it." But ignore him. The professionals were, I thought, much more transparent and helpful than in past press conferences. The head of HHS was excellent at explaining the supply and distribution problems related to testing and what they were doing to fix them. The promises seemed much more realistic. So, I'm cautiously optimistic that things are starting to get better at the federal level.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Doctor CamNC4Me
_Emeritus
Posts: 21663
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 11:02 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

An excellent 94 minute clip from Joe Rogan where an 'infectious diseases detective' basically lays out a reality check for all the uber fuckin morons who think the Democrats are scaremongering.

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw

It's a video (no reading!) so there's no reason those monstrous damned godzillatards can't get informed.

- Doc
Last edited by Guest on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

It looks like Fox New’s holdouts have switched from corona is a liberal hoax to God-emperor Trump is saving you from the plague like no one else can.

I don’t know how people swallow this Orwellian insanity, but they do.
_Doctor CamNC4Me
_Emeritus
Posts: 21663
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 11:02 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

From the video above, based on case studies from Germany where they followed a group 9 people who agreed to be guinea pigs; when they were first feeling symptomatic their throats were swabbed, and they were 10,000 times more virulent than SARS.

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

This is why the President pays a smallish political price for egregious unfitness and harmful behavior.

https://mobile.Twitter.com/LisPower1/st ... 6471132165

The President has also pivoted to downplaying the pandemic to claiming in his great wisdom he saw the scope of the problem well before others. Can’t wait to see the NYT headline, “On Covid -19 President Shifts Message.”
_DarkHelmet
_Emeritus
Posts: 5422
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:38 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _DarkHelmet »

I love the conspiracy theory about this being a liberal hoax to hurt the president. That's the opposite of how it is supposed to work. Presidents are supposed to manufacture crisis to HELP their presidency. Supposedly they start wars and commit false flag operations to rally the people behind them. Remember how divided this country was after the 2000 election? Shortly after 9/11 (not a conspiracy) George W. Bush had a 90% approval rating. All a president has to do is act presidential during a crisis and the American people will always rally behind him.
"We have taken up arms in defense of our liberty, our property, our wives, and our children; we are determined to preserve them, or die."
- Captain Moroni - 'Address to the Inhabitants of Canada' 1775
_Res Ipsa
_Emeritus
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:37 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _Res Ipsa »

DarkHelmet wrote:I love the conspiracy theory about this being a liberal hoax to hurt the president. That's the opposite of how it is supposed to work. Presidents are supposed to manufacture crisis to HELP their presidency. Supposedly they start wars and commit false flag operations to rally the people behind them. Remember how divided this country was after the 2000 election? Shortly after 9/11 (not a conspiracy) George W. Bush had a 90% approval rating. All a president has to do is act presidential during a crisis and the American people will always rally behind him.

That's the beauty of conspiracy theories. You can create one that shows what you want it to.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by _EAllusion »

Mainstream news coverage of Trump's handling of this is now getting surprisingly positive, despite all the gross incompetence, lies, and blood on his hands. It's maddening. You'd think this would make him Hoover, but he's starting to get treated as FDR. You can't count on historical political trends in this particular information environment.

If you are a informed, well-read news follower, you're getting a detailed story of egregious failings of Trump, which is what I think makes them imagine they are being fair, but the headline and punditry level stuff doesn't paint that picture at all.
Post Reply