Thread for discussing climate change

[Atlanticmike]

I'm trying to get one of you really really smart guys to tell me when my favorite surfing spots won't be surfable anymore because the beachfront houses will be in the way of me riding a wave. What I'm saying is, I've been surfing the same spots for 40 years and I guarantee you I'll be surfing the exact same spots in 30 years from now, exact same spot. The beach houses I surf in front of won't be moved in 30 years and they won't be moved in 60 years either. Can you prove me wrong?

Nope. Assuming you’re surfing at Canova Beach, it looks like there’s a ridge of dunes that parallels the beach at about 25’ above sea level. So, you can rest assured that your little slice of haven won’t be completely be submerged before you die.

I don’t know about access. I’m assuming you access the beach from the north, and the main problems with highway seem to be the south. But it all depends on what the fine taxpayers of North Carolina will continue to be willing to shell out for, given the parts of the state that are already being affected by flooding during the highest tides and the damage to the Outer Banks caused by storms. So, can’t help you there.

Well, as far as carova goes, you access it from the south, Virginia won't let vehicles on the beach anymore so you have to drive an hour south then back an hour north, it's a fun ride though.

Here's the truth. There's a better chance that in 30 years we will be talking about global cooling than global warming. I'd bet you my favorite fishing pole! That means I'm serious . Why!? Because climate change is 90% political an 10% about what's best for the planet. We've gone way beyond what's best for the planet.

[Res Ipsa]

What will the islands that make up the outer Banks look like in 30 years? Will I be able to drive a vehicle there, get out and enjoy the beach or will it all be under water? I mean, you guys seem to have all the answers, when will the islands be covered in water? I'll say it again, I'll be surfing in the exact same place, in front of the exact same houses on the exact same beach in 30 years. You guys are brainwashed. Cult much??

Atlanticmike makes an important and valuable point. A crucial one. If he lives that long and surfs that long, chances are higher that he would win the bet than lose it. A lot higher.

I would wager that if any of the homeowners of those houses sold them today, the banks would offer a 30-year mortgage to the buyer and they would be able to get insurance. The money is on Atlanticmike in this wager. I would be long Mike and short Alf.

This does not mean that there is not scientific evidence of changes on the globe or that there is not scientific evidence that humans contributed to that change. It means that the predictive models for the shape of that beach are likely fer crap and that wagering that the beach will be mostly the same is a damn safe bet.

For the particular location he surfs at, yes. But it has nothing to do with the predictive models being crap. The rate of erosion at that beach is at the low end of the outer banks at 2 ft per year. There is a 25’ dune ridge that parallels the coast and the beach homes are set back away from the water line. So, the insurability of those specific homes is based on the predictive models, not contrary to them.

Of course, those conditions are not representative of beaches along the outer banks. So other than that Mike can probably surf there until he does, I don’t think there’s any helpful conclusion to be drawn.

[Res Ipsa]

Nope. Assuming you’re surfing at Canova Beach, it looks like there’s a ridge of dunes that parallels the beach at about 25’ above sea level. So, you can rest assured that your little slice of haven won’t be completely be submerged before you die.

I don’t know about access. I’m assuming you access the beach from the north, and the main problems with highway seem to be the south. But it all depends on what the fine taxpayers of North Carolina will continue to be willing to shell out for, given the parts of the state that are already being affected by flooding during the highest tides and the damage to the Outer Banks caused by storms. So, can’t help you there.

Well, as far as carova goes, you access it from the south, Virginia won't let vehicles on the beach anymore so you have to drive an hour south then back an hour north, it's a fun ride though.

Here's the truth. There's a better chance that in 30 years we will be talking about global cooling than global warming. I'd bet you my favorite fishing pole! That means I'm serious . Why!? Because climate change is 90% political an 10% about what's best for the planet. We've gone way beyond what's best for the planet.

Not the truth. At all. The fact of global warming is 100% science. Your statement is 100% political.

Climate change has nothing to do with what’s best for the planet. The planet doesn’t give a crap about whether it has life on it or what type of life there is. Mercury does just fine as a planet. So does Neptune.

[Res Ipsa]

Oh, do you take the bridge at point harbor?

[Gadianton]

Because climate change is 90% political an 10%

The belief that climate change is 90% political is what's political. Mike's surfing observation only back up what he's heard from Rush Limbaugh and loud-mouth pundits. So far he's offered zero evidence to support his belief.

ETA; typed this while res posted "Your statement is 100% political" and beat me to it.

[Atlanticmike]

Oh, do you take the bridge at point harbor?

Yes.

[Res Ipsa]

Does this work? 36°31'23"N 75°51'49"W · 10.2 ft

Note the long ramps and stairs from most of the homes to the beach.

[Res Ipsa]

Does this work? 36°31'23"N 75°51'49"W · 10.2 ft

Note the long ramps and stairs from most of the homes to the beach.

That works. Thanks.

Lots of pools behind the homes on Sandfiddler Road. I would put my money on Atlanticmike. Those homes will still be there in 100 years. There will be some natural erosion. I do not think the erosion will accelerate a noticeable amount compared to the last 30 years.

But, go south to Nag’s Head. There you can see homes where the water has come right up to the houses.

And I wouldn’t bet on a hundred years for any of those homes. It depends on what we do or don’t do.

ETA: the homes on the west side of the spit are at more risk. Much lower elevation, and can be flooded from the west. No barrier.

[canpakes]

But, go south to Nag’s Head. There you can see homes where the water has come right up to the houses.

And I wouldn’t bet on a hundred years for any of those homes. It depends on what we do or don’t do.

ETA: the homes on the west side of the spit are at more risk. Much lower elevation, and can be flooded from the west. No barrier.

And they recognize the potential issues, as well.

The claims that all of this talk about climate change issues is ‘political’ ignores the realities faced by many coastal communities, which see their economic and physical survivability threatened. They seem much less interested in what someone thinks about their credibility or supposed cultiness over their concerns when the viability of their community is foremost on their mind.

From the Town of Nags Head website -

https://nagsheadnc.gov/251/Coastal-Resi ... ise-Planni

Plans to Guide & Manage

Nags Head has adopted a comprehensive plan, hazard mitigation plan, and land use regulations such as zoning, stormwater, flood, and dune protection to help guide and manage development in this vulnerable environment. As reflected in the vision for the comprehensive plan, the town recognizes that it must be a good place to live before it can be a good place to visit. The town further strives to preserve and protect the Nags Head character, environment, tourism based economy, and sense of place in order to ensure a high quality of life for residents and a memorable family vacation experience for present and future generations.

This requires that the town seek to balance its economic needs while preserving community character, the natural environment, and maintaining the quality of life through the funding of projects such as beach nourishment, beach access amenities, and multi-use paths. In addition, the town is beginning to plan for sea level rise and climate change, but currently seeks to enhance its understanding of its vulnerabilities and adaptation options as well as the legal and policy barriers to successfully implement planning tools to address the negative impacts of sea level rise.

Comprehensive Planning Process

Nags Head initiated a comprehensive planning process in 2015, known as FOCUS Nags Head, in order to better plan for the future. The Comprehensive Plan was adopted in July 2017. The plan includes policies and actions that will require continued commitment to examine how sea level rise and climate change will impact the town and what the town and its citizens can do to protect vital infrastructure, preserve community character, and maintain a thriving local economy.

[doubtingthomas]

Got it. I see that.

So did you change your mind?