Hawkeye wrote: ↑Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:07 pm
That's not the definition of a recession.
2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction is the definition of recession that has always been used. You're changing the definition now because by Thursday we'll know that we've had 2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The only hope Democrats have for saying that their policies do not lead to recession and stagflation is to redefine the term recession.
No Ajax, that isn't the definition. This has been explained, but as it is with everything else, you absorb only that which is given to you by the fake news sites like Brietbart. And you cannot explain how a single "policy" let alone "policies" has led to negative growth. You also don't know what stagflation is if you're dumb enough to throw that out there. You seem like a petulant child, upset that none of his doomsday predictions have come to pass. First hyperinflation which never happened and now you think you know what stagflation is. In short, you cannot have stagflation with low unemployment. At some point the supply chains are going to be up and running at full speed and inflation will go down, and you're going to be pissed off about that. Virtually all economists agree that if we do go into a recession then it would be by design. The Fed hiking rates to lower consumer spending is the one thing it has been doing to curb inflation, and since day one many have been predicting a recession would be necessary to halt inflation in its tracks. That isn't a "policy" from Biden because unlike your orange autocrat, Biden doesn't control the Fed.
The fact is if we're in a recession it is one of the best recessions to be in. Record low unemployment, record wage growth, and inflation is because Americans keep buying crap which isn't indicative of a struggling society.
What is a Recession?
The NBER considers indicators including nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and retail sales, among others, in designating the start and end of U.S. recessions, usually months after the peak and trough of the business cycle.
So let's go through these one at a time:
Nonfarm payrolls
have been increasing at a record rate since Biden took office, and even during the recent slow down the past four months have seen monthly gains well above 350,000 all of which were more new jobs than in any month during the pre-Pandemic Trump administration.
Industrial production has reached
record highs in 2022, hardly the sign of an impending recession.
Retail sales were at
$594 billion in June, which is a $20 billion increase since January and it is higher than at any point during the Trump administration.
So can't you see why no one is calling this a recession? The only real negative is inflation caused by supply and demand issues, and that is the reason GDP dipped slightly into the negative. Because REAL GDP adjusts for inflation. Meanwhile, the economy is still expanding and GDP is reaching
record highs.
Recessions are overwhelmingly felt by the general population, like when millions lose their jobs (2020) or their homes (2007), but right their primary gripe is gas prices which is just a product of the free market.
“The NBER would be laughingstocks if they said we had a recession when we were creating 400,000 jobs a month,” said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “I can’t even imagine they would think for a second that we’re in a recession.”
Indeed, nonfarm payrolls grew an average 457,000 a month during the first six months of the year, hardly conditions associated with an economic downturn. Moreover, there are 11.3 million job openings and just 5.9 million available workers to fill them, indicating hiring should continue to be strong.