Biden's Economy?

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Vēritās
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Vēritās »

honorentheos wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:50 am
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:11 pm
I think that trying to lay all that stuff on Trump vastly oversimplifies what went on on pre-inflation.
I disagree. One didn't have to be very deeply engaged in the financial economic discussions taking place in 2018-19 before COVID hit to hear the general view that the White House was pushing the economy to overheat in order to maximize short term gains that was going to come to a fiery end at some point. Trump constantly pressured the Fed to keep interest rates as close to zero as possible at a time when rates should have been inching up. The tax cuts were coupled with spending increases that saw money moving fast and white hot into stock buybacks and executive profits rather than investments in the next generation of innovations and new industry. His trade wars hurt workers, his immigration policy was a gimmick with real-world negative consequences for GDP growth, his attacks on regulation and government oversight were a short grab as well. The things people bitch about re: inflation like gas prices are symptomatic issues, not economic fundamentals. That may be where you feel it most, but that's not where the actual problem lies. Not at its core
I think you're right...

Business Insider, June 2018:

A 'dangerous' inflation trend is taking place in America and it could signal the economy is overheating

Newsweek, October 2018:

Will Donald Trump's Booming Economy Go Bust?
Hawkeye
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Hawkeye »

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) once described two quarters of economic contraction as the “technical definition” of recession in 2008, despite Democrats now downplaying negative economic growth under President Joe Biden’s leadership.

“And so while they may have saved the second quarter from a technical definition of recession, the fact is, we are now into the third quarter and we need to have another stimulus package,” Pelosi said in July 2008:

Image


This flashback emerges after Thursday’s reporting, showing U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrinking by 0.9 percent in the second quarter of the year, which follows the economy contracting by 1.6 percent in the first quarter. Two consecutive quarters of contraction typically point to a recession:

The economy contracted by 1.6 percent in the first quarter. Many Americans consider two straight quarters of recession to be the marker of a recession. Economists, however, rely on the determination of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to say when a recession starts. The NBER has a more complex and subjective definition of recessions and typically does not declare a recession until several months after it has begun.

As a result, Democrats have become subjects of mockery for seemingly attempting to change the definition of recession to better suit their political narrative:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022 ... sion-2008/
The best part about this is waiting four years to see how all the crazy apocalyptic predictions made by the fear mongering idiots in Right Wing media turned out to be painfully wrong...Gasoline would hit $10/gallon. Hyperinflation would ensue.
Icarus
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Vēritās »

Hawkeye wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:41 pm
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You know Hawkeye is desperate when he has to rely on Brietbart to misrepresent Pelosi to pretend anything she says outweighs what economists say about recessions.
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canpakes
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by canpakes »

This link below will take you to a graph tracking the 6 measures that the NBER uses to classify the current economic situation as a ‘recession’, or not:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1071332

At last check, they’re not using Nancy Pelosi or Brietbart. Sorry, hawkajax.

The top chart shows what these indicators are looking like over the last half-year. The bottom chart gives a longer timeline, so that current trends and their strength can be compared to results going back about 15 years or so …
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Res Ipsa »

Hawkeye wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:41 pm
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) once described two quarters of economic contraction as the “technical definition” of recession in 2008, despite Democrats now downplaying negative economic growth under President Joe Biden’s leadership.

“And so while they may have saved the second quarter from a technical definition of recession, the fact is, we are now into the third quarter and we need to have another stimulus package,” Pelosi said in July 2008:

Image


This flashback emerges after Thursday’s reporting, showing U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrinking by 0.9 percent in the second quarter of the year, which follows the economy contracting by 1.6 percent in the first quarter. Two consecutive quarters of contraction typically point to a recession:

The economy contracted by 1.6 percent in the first quarter. Many Americans consider two straight quarters of recession to be the marker of a recession. Economists, however, rely on the determination of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to say when a recession starts. The NBER has a more complex and subjective definition of recessions and typically does not declare a recession until several months after it has begun.

As a result, Democrats have become subjects of mockery for seemingly attempting to change the definition of recession to better suit their political narrative:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022 ... sion-2008/
Nancy Pelosi doesn't get to redefine recession. Neither does Breitbart. Neither do you.
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Res Ipsa »

canpakes, those graphs are very useful (I've found the information available at the FRED website very helpful). It shows how odd the current economy is. The number of non-farm jobs has continued to steadily increase since the first of the year. The actual downturn is in manufacturing, which is consistent with retailers being overloaded with inventory. We're spending money again, but it's on travel and vacations and not as much on stuff.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Doctor Steuss »

Anyone know the difference between "real manufacturing," and "industrial production," as used by those rapscallions in Missouri?
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Res Ipsa »

Doctor Steuss wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:31 pm
Anyone know the difference between "real manufacturing," and "industrial production," as used by those rapscallions in Missouri?
If recall, manufacturing is a component of industrial production. Others would be mining, oil, etc.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Hawkeye »

Biden Spin Fail: Majorities of Blacks, Whites, Hispanics Say We’re in A Recession

Despite the Biden administration’s furious denials, an increasing share of the American public thinks the U.S. economy is in a recession.

The share of Americans who say the country is in a recession rose to 61 percent recent, polling data from the Economist and YouGov indicates. That is up from 57 percent a month ago.

Last week, Presdident Joe Biden went all out to play down the Commerce Department’s report that the economy had contracted for a second consecutive quarter, a popular definition of a recession.

Biden cited very low unemployment rates to defend his management of the nation’s economic affairs. The unemployment rate in June was 3.6 percent.

“That doesn’t sound like a recession to me,” Biden said.

A broad range of Americans disagree. The polling shows that more than 60 percent of both men and women say we’re in a recession. Whites with college degrees and without say we’re in a recession. A majority of Hispanic Americans say we’re in a recession.

The share of black Americans who say we’re in a recession shot up from 44 percent in July to 53 percent in August.

The share of suburban Americans saying we’re in a recession jumped from 55 percent to 63 percent. The share of rural Americans jumped from 60 percent to 66 percent. Urban dwellers became slightly less convinced we are in a recession, with the share saying we are dipping from 57 percent to 55 percent.

Income makes almost no difference. Sixty-one percent of Americans earning less than $50,000 say this is a recession. Sixty-three percent of Americans earning over $100,000 agree. Sixty-five percent of those in between the upper and lower thirds say we’re in a recession.

A majority of every age cohort in the poll agree we’re in a recession, ranging from 51 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds, to 63 percent of 30 to 44-year-olds, 64 percent of 45 to 64-year-olds, and 66 percent for those 65 and older. Twenty-nine percent of 18 to 29-year-olds say they are not sure if we are in a recession, the highest among any age group.


Democratic partisanship is still dividing the country. Eighty-two percent of Republicans say we’re in a recession, up from 75 percent a month ago. Sixty-one percent of independents do also, up from 57 percent. Forty-four percent of Democrats say we’re in a recession, virtually unchanged from the July poll.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/ ... recession/
The best part about this is waiting four years to see how all the crazy apocalyptic predictions made by the fear mongering idiots in Right Wing media turned out to be painfully wrong...Gasoline would hit $10/gallon. Hyperinflation would ensue.
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Re: Biden's Economy?

Post by Gadianton »

Well of course the largest percentage of Americans who think we're in a recession are the rural Americans, because they're the dumbest and most likely to support Donald Trump. Maybe all of these people weren't around in 2008 and need a real downturn as a reminder? It was eerie back then. I went to work very early in the morning, and I recall mornings I was on this California freeway for long stretches all by myself. Very weird. And at one point, I remember getting gas and it was 1.87 a gallon I believe -- in California. I want to say this was in December and Obama was president so does he get credit for the lowest gas prices I ever saw in California? Anyway, I was starting this new job, there were lots of extra hours, and so while my fingers were crossed, times were good for me. Perhaps Ajax was also employed at that time and enjoying the low prices. It's all relative. A booming economy isn't necessarily good for everyone, just ask all the poor people who get driven out of their apartments by gentrification.

Here's what Nerd Wallet says:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/fina ... -recession
It may not be "official," but according to a traditional definition, the U.S. is currently in a recession. However, as with many things in our post-pandemic world, there is more to the story.

The conventional benchmark has been that two consecutive quarters of a generally slowing economy defines a recession. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency embedded in the U.S. Department of Commerce, said that as of July 28, 2022, just such an economic pullback occurred in the first and second quarters of this year.
[1]
But with an economy maintaining strong employment and resilient corporate and personal spending, there is room for debate.
Basically the point Biden is making.

Biden is irrelevant here. Right-winger Jerome Powell is relevant though, as he is in charge of raising interest rates. Why, Ajax? Why is Jerome Powell raising interest rates? to stimulate saving and deter easy credit. Why? To get people to spend less. If you want prices to fall, people have to quit spending, but yet, you're in shock over the prospect of people cutting back on spending. How else are prices supposed to fall? You've been telling us from the beginning that inflation is the result of too much money injected into the economy, but then, when measures are taken to stop the spending, you complain that people are going without.

Now, I personally have reservations about how well this right-wing plan of interest rate raising is going to fix things, I think there are some difficult fundamental issues not fixable by politicians and banks, but, in theory if it is fixable, it's all about flow control. You don't need people to go without forever, you need everything to slow down so that every piece of the system can recover and move at its optimal speed. Think about getting onto a freeway when everybody else is trying to get onto the freeway at the same time. To speed up traffic, you have to first slow the rate of flow into the freeway, such as by putting up those stop lights that let one person on every few seconds.

Of course, if there is any point to the Breitbart piece it is that people disagree with the presidents messaging, and has nothing to do with what the problem actually is. wow, epic. But that's what you're about, right Ajax? Messaging and memes? You don't care if the economy is good or bad, you care if everybody is saying it's good if your guy is president and bad if somebody else is.
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