The above is pure nonsense. The more realistic perspective described below is born of time living in the UK, in Ukraine on a WMD proliferation prevention assignment, a year as the CEO of a Russian-funded start-up in the US, time spent in Russia traveling between St. Petersburg and Moscow, managing various DoD projects at a National Lab, and now in a company with several retired senior military officers who keep up with current DoD thinking.Will Schryver wrote: @imetatronink
The no longer irresistible force of the US and its Anglosphere/European vassals is now irreversibly committed to wrecking itself against the immovable object of Russia.
11:27 AM · Sep 19, 2022
From this vantage point, it’s now clear that the Russian SMO into Ukraine can only end with Russian forces expelled from the country and rendered incapable of mounting any credible threat in the foreseeable future. Supported by the US, UK, and other NATO countries, Ukraine will eventually reclaim all of its territories as they existed from 1991 to before the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014. Russian forces in Ukraine will leave, surrender, or be destroyed.
NATO countries have no choice in the matter. Russia has violated every applicable treaty into which they have entered since WWII regarding Ukraine. Russia simply cannot be trusted when it comes to treaties (or much else) - now or in the foreseeable future. , Over the last few decades, the Russian governmental kleptocracy, aided by the Russian Orthodox Church, has destroyed the morale and will of the vast majority of its citizenry, especially those living outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg. In towns and villages outside these two cities, it seems to me that learned helplessness prevails.
The most important factor in this war is the motivation and commitment of the respective armed forces involved. Force training, equipment quality, quantity, and logistics capability are critical. Ukraine, with NATO's help, surpasses Russia on all counts. Finally, there is international opposition to Russia in the form of sanctions and strong political will.
The West has a once-in-a-century opportunity to defang Russia. Russian military capability can now be reduced to a point that ensures Russia cannot threaten Western Europe or the West in general for generations, assuming Russia survives as a nation at all. US and UK military planners recognize this opportunity and will do whatever it takes to provide Ukraine with the equipment and training needed to prevail.
When the next phase of training is complete, Ukraine will be provided with F-16 and F-15 aircraft. Some of the F-16s will be fitted with SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capability. SEAD is a critical function and one that the Russian Air Force has simply failed to accomplish. After six months of war, Russia has failed to establish air superiority in the battlespace.
With US/NATO AWACS patrolling just beyond the border and coordinating US-built aircraft piloted by well-trained and supremely motivated Ukrainians, Ukraine will achieve air superiority in the battle space in short order. Beyond Visual Range (BVR) engagement capabilities of air-to-air missile systems carried by F-15 and F-16 aircraft are unrivaled. With the NATO air assets, Russian combat aircraft can be targeted and downed before they know Ukrainian fighter jets are in the area.
With the help of US planners and intel, Ukraine military planners and politicians lured a substantial proportion of theater Russian forces into the Kherson area with the threat of a counteroffensive there to recapture that city. Ukraine then cut Russian supply lines, especially across the Dnieper river, leaving the recently incoming forces stranded with greatly diminished, if any, logistical support. Russian forces trapped in Kherson province will eventually desert and melt away back to Russia, surrender, or be killed.
In the meantime, Ukraine's forces have scored a significant counteroffensive win in the Kharkiv region. Surprised and poorly led regular Russian forces fled the area after simply abandoning armored and transport vehicles, including fully operational T-72 tanks with fuel and ammunition, as well as other heavy weapons and ammunition. The Russian tanks are now being used by Ukrainian forces to strengthen their new positions.
With the Eastern front partially collapsed, some 30,000 troops and their equipment trapped north of the Dnieper river in Kherson, province, and with Putin reduced to opening prisons in Russia to obtain more cannon fodder, it’s pretty clear that Russia is well on the road to defeat. In the last phases of the mainland battle, additional HIMARS and longer-range precision-guided rocket-propelled munitions will be able to reach well into Crimea, to the Russian border, and beyond if needed. Russian logistics capability and troop morale will continue to be degraded by the use of better and more accurate stand-off weapons by Ukraine. Russian forces will eventually surrender, leave the Ukrainian mainland, or be destroyed. Short of a nuclear attack (which would be tantamount to national suicide), there is nothing Putin can do at this point to alter the outcome.
Abundant evidence of horrendous war crimes committed by Russian forces against Ukrainian civilians will continue to turn world opinion against Putin’s war and in favor of re-establishing the original borders of Ukraine, including Crimea. Diplomacy in this conflict is in the form of superior weapons and better-trained, motivated, and supported troops imposing their will on Russia.
Indian Prime Minister and Russian ally Narendra Modi recently warned Putin, ‘Now is not the time for war.’ Russia's best chance now is to heed this warning and act accordingly.