An interesting article published by LDS researcher David Stewart in the Journal of Mormon Social Science Association entitled: The End of Growth? Fading Prospects for Latter-day Saint Expansion. His article does a very detailed analysis of the declining growth rates in the church during the past several decades and identifies several factors.
He also notes that the Seventh Day Adventists and Jehovah Witnesses are completely blowing the LDS out of the water when it comes to world growth, with only a fraction of the resources and no missionary programs.
Final concluding paragraph:
"Trends point to continued underperformance of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints compared to its competitors. While a range of possibilities exist, the default path is for further decline of growth rates. The LDS Church is unlikely to regain its former growth trajectory. Prospects of becoming a major world faith have faded and are likely beyond reach."
WOW. I mean could a faithful source possibly frame this in harsher terms?! That's the most direct, politely stated slap in the face that you could read as a leader at the COB.
It may be true that they don't have the same kind of 2-year dedicated missionaries as the LDS do, but I've been proselyted by JWs several times in Canada, and once in Mexico. These were local members performing their duty to spread the word, apparently like the LDS every member a missionary idea, but actually working.
The Mexican experience was funny: even though I'd been mentally out for years, I told them "Sommos Mormones", and they disappeared quite rapidly.
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It may be true that they don't have the same kind of 2-year dedicated missionaries as the LDS do, but I've been proselyted by JWs several times in Canada, and once in Mexico. These were local members performing their duty to spread the word, apparently like the LDS every member a missionary idea, but actually working.
The Mexican experience was funny: even though I'd been mentally out for years, I told them "Sommos Mormones", and they disappeared quite rapidly.
Good question. Hopefully someone here knows the answer.
I've been hit up a couple of times by the JWs. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the JWs are required to spend a certain amount of time per month proselytizing? I don't think they have a full-time missionary program like we do.
Regardless, they are kicking our butts when it comes to growth. Maybe the solution is to dismantle our full-time missionary program and just have the members spend a few hours a month going out to proselytize?
"I'm on paid sabbatical from BYU in exchange for my promise to use this time to finish two books."
That’s a question I’ve been asking for damn near twenty years. Your guess is as good as mine. I suspect as long as a Mormon expresses fealty to the brethren and pays their tithing they have a certain amount of leeway to preach their pet heretical theories.
That’s a question I’ve been asking for damn near twenty years. Your guess is as good as mine. I suspect as long as a Mormon expresses fealty to the brethren and pays their tithing they have a certain amount of leeway to preach their pet heretical theories.
JWs spread their literature. I’ve often found it in medical waiting rooms. If I recall correctly, spreading the literature is called “publishing.” If I recall correctly, they used to charge the recipient for it, but that’s a thing from the past. I’m not sure if the members have to pay for the literature they give out. My daughter recently was putting out some merchandise at work, specifically children’s books, and someone had set some JW pamphlets amongst the children’s books.
My experience with JWs is going to a talk given by a member’s husband. He did a very good job. The music played was like a hymn from a poorly recorded cassette tape. Written on the wall was Hebrews 10:39. I’m not sure if it was from the NWT or not. The wife of the husband who gave the talk came to my house a couple of times. I noticed a couple of times when seeing groups of JW in our former neighborhood, it seemed like they had purposefully paired off in racially diverse groups. I say this because the woman I mentioned above made a big deal out of telling me how diverse JWs are.
Since the pandemic started, my mother and my husband both received letters from JW members in the mail with the return address being the local Kingdom Hall address.
It was while I was interacting with the JW lady above that, I remember saying to myself, “ I don’t want to learn what the Mormon church teaches.” I suppose the Lord had other plans.
"Your eyes saw my unformed substance; in your book were written, every one of them, the days that were formed for me, when as yet there was none of them." Psalm 139:16 ESV
I noticed a couple of times when seeing groups of JW in our former neighborhood, it seemed like they had purposefully paired off in racially diverse groups. I say this because the woman I mentioned above made a big deal out of telling me how diverse JWs are.
It's kind of like when the General Conference broadcast keeps focusing on the one black guy in the Choir over and over in order to make it appear more racially diverse.
"I'm on paid sabbatical from BYU in exchange for my promise to use this time to finish two books."
This was an excellent paper. Thank you for sharing it. Stark's conclusions even at the time were problematic based on the data available at the time regarding secularism growth. But they were put forward as near-gospel in General Conference and in many other meetings I attended.
Stewart just demolishes Stark and it's quite enjoyable seeing the vivisection. Unfortunately, people like Stark are far too common in political science and sociology. They pretend to be doing "data science," when what they're really doing is stringing together highly selective and biased data sets.
How can a business be enjoying a lot of success with a declining new customer growth rate?
Converts are not the customers of Mormonism, they're just another revenue source. The church has succeeded at diversifying its revenue sources enough that the converts don't really matter anymore. In fact, I would wager that tracting and missionizing are probably one of the very worst ways for the church to increase revenues.
It hasn't been about member growth for a very long time. Instead, the focus is on retention--both of members and also the current customs and practices. That's what happens when you're led by a bunch of octogenarians.
The fertile missionary fields for all three sects, as well evangelical Christians, are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The average age of the populations is amazing low and that region will have the most growth between now and the end of the century, when the global population is predicted to stabilize. If I recall correctly, the LDS church got a relatively late start when compared with SDA and JW sects. Given the high rate of growth of the other two, the LDS church will be hard pressed to keep up. In addition, the LDS church has some handicaps in its history that may create more resistance from black African populations.
In another two or three decades, Sub Saharan Africa may be sending more missionaries of various denominations to the U.S than the other way around.
