Republicans in Disarray

[hauslern]

If by some fluke Trump got nominated and elected does that make him 3rd in line for Biden's job?

[hauslern]

I cannot imagine back in that previous case of speaker two black ladies would be taking the roll. Shows some pleasant progress.

[Res Ipsa]

Just from watching the process (which I'm doing on C-SPAN), nominations happen before the vote starts. I've been tracking the nominations for each round in this thread. However, the reps can vote for anyone they want, whether that person was nominated or not. I'm not surprised that Fox got this wrong.

BBC reported Gaetz nominated Trump. Do you have information he was nominated by someone else?

- Doc

Fox caught their mistake. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/matt-g ... t-mccarthy

Trump, though, was not nominated ahead of the vote. McCarthy, Donalds and incoming House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries were the only three nominated ahead of the vote.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I suppose this begs the question, does a person have to be nominated in order to be elected as SotH? Could, in theory, the Republicans cast 218 votes for DJT without nominating him, and would that be sufficient for Trump to win?

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

I suppose this begs the question, does a person have to be nominated in order to be elected as SotH? Could, in theory, the Republicans cast 218 votes for DJT without nominating him, and would that be sufficient for Trump to win?

- Doc

Yes.

[Res Ipsa]

If by some fluke Trump got nominated and elected does that make him 3rd in line for Biden's job.?

Yes. President-->Vice President---->Speaker of the House

Right now, as there is no Speaker, that spot is held by one of my Senators, Patty Murray.

[honorentheos]

So, big picture time.

It seems likely we will see one of two scenarios. One which is very unlikely, is the House votes to change the election rules to require only a plurality of votes to become the next speaker. I only see this happening if McCarthy absolutely refuses to give in, forcing the opposition to decide if they are willing to let Jefferies become Speaker rather than McCarthy take the gavel. I don't know what the odds are, but my instincts say he'd eventually cave to pressure if there is no chance he gets the votes...and I think that's the case.

The other, most likely scenario is bad. That being, the opposition to McCarthy ultimately succeed in forcing the rest of the party to accept their rule changes AND a Speaker who gives them the outsized influence on committee assignments, House rules and business, and defines their priorities in a way that tilts the boat further in the extremist MAGA direction. Slim but unlikely possibilities McCarthy stays in and manages to get holdouts to concede in this direction himself. But he'd have to be willing to be Speaker in name only and really, really denigrate himself to get there and I think he'd ultimately drop out or go nuclear with the plurality change first.

I think there is practically a zero percent chance a moderate Republicans becomes Speaker. The margin is too slim, the entrenched have no incentive to give in. Shamelessness has it's advantages...

I'm feeling dark about this the more I watch. I think the odds are this grabs the Overton window and yanks it hard. Plus, if they end up successful, expect the next Democrat majority to find itself in the same situation. This genie won't go back in the bottle easily.

Could be. But can they even change that rule before a Speaker is elected? It's a weird situation.

Scuttlebutt is it just takes a majority to change that rule and allow the speaker to be elected by a plurality of the vote.

I don't think we'll see that happen, though. I am leaning towards this likely dragged House into more extreme directions...for both parties.

[Res Ipsa]

I cannot imagine back in that previous case of speaker two black ladies would be taking the roll. Shows some pleasant progress.

One of the last acts of the 117th House was to elect/appoint the new Clerk. I'm not sure what the process is. I believe she was selected by Pelosi.

[Res Ipsa]

Could be. But can they even change that rule before a Speaker is elected? It's a weird situation.

Scuttlebutt is it just takes a majority to change that rule and allow the speaker to be elected by a plurality of the vote.

I don't think we'll see that happen, though. I am leaning towards this likely dragged House into more extreme directions...for both parties.

History agrees with the Scuttlebutt:

Dire circumstances could lead to unusual procedures. Twice before, in 1849 and 1856, the House agreed to a resolution that allowed a Speaker to be elected by a plurality. That move was something of a last resort, though, and came after 59 and 129 failed ballots. A majority of the whole House would need to agree to that resolution.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3792 ... -election/

[hauslern]

Why are there so many people sitting around taking down the numbers as they answer?