So What About Kamala Harris?

[Xenophon]

From the 538 article linked above:

However, Harris’s popular-vote edge is almost entirely negated by the bigger Electoral College bias against her. In our polls-only forecast pairing Biden against Trump, the Democratic candidate needs to win the popular vote by just 1.1 points to win the presidency. That’s thanks to Biden doing better in Pennsylvania, the likeliest tipping-point state in our model. Harris, by contrast, would need to win the popular vote by 3.5-4 points to win Pennsylvania and, with it, the Electoral College.

However, whether Harris would truly be a stronger candidate than Biden also depends on information besides the polls. In our full forecast model — which includes a variety of non-polling economic and political variables, which we call the “fundamentals” — Harris does much worse than Biden across the board. Whereas Biden has a 48-in-100 chance to win the Electoral College, Harris has only a 31-in-100 chance.

Sorry to have linked and ran yesterday but hurricanes do hurricane things from time to time.

One of the other concerns I have with any polling about Harris (or another candidate) subbing in for Biden is that I fail to see how any of them account for the likely drop in approval/support as the opposition focus gets turned on them. Right now Harris is pretty well ignored or an unknown, I'm skeptical that with a concerted opposition effort her weak favorability and modeled election numbers get any better.

[Binger]

From the 538 article linked above:

Sorry to have linked and ran yesterday but hurricanes do hurricane things from time to time.

One of the other concerns I have with any polling about Harris (or another candidate) subbing in for Biden is that I fail to see how any of them account for the likely drop in approval/support as the opposition focus gets turned on them. Right now Harris is pretty well ignored or an unknown, I'm skeptical that with a concerted opposition effort her weak favorability and modeled election numbers get any better.

The only polling number that would matter with Harris as the top of the ticket is enthusiasm. This is the difference between registered voters, likely voters and actual votes. Harris would get destroyed for 100 days and enthusiasm would be constantly under pressure. Picking a replacement other than Harris would face an immediate drop in enthusiasm at the moment of the announcement. Clyburn knows and he is not giving up that lever easily.

[Kishkumen]

Sorry to have linked and ran yesterday but hurricanes do hurricane things from time to time.

One of the other concerns I have with any polling about Harris (or another candidate) subbing in for Biden is that I fail to see how any of them account for the likely drop in approval/support as the opposition focus gets turned on them. Right now Harris is pretty well ignored or an unknown, I'm skeptical that with a concerted opposition effort her weak favorability and modeled election numbers get any better.

I agree. Whatever legal and constitutional path (take note, ceeboo!) leads to victory against Trump.

[yellowstone123]

Ask Willie Brown's wife what she thinks about Kamala Harris. This wasn't a slip by Newsom in an alcoholic daze with his campaign manager's wife, Harris was Willie Browns girlfriend when he was married to another woman and he was mayor of San Fransisco. When he was Speaker of the House of in California. he got her cushy board appointments.

Here is how she acts under pressure. This is after the debate which means less than a week ago. It's five minutes long.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics ... ate-digvid

Wait til they start running real coverage of San Francisco. If the media gets backed into a corner to tell the truth about SF it is going to make Biden's disease look as benign as a haircut in comparison.

Hi, Binger. I do need to correct some errors at least from what I read. Willie Brown and Kamala Harris dated in the open. He had been separated from his wife for more than ten years when this happened, but of course San Francisco didn't care one bit. The thought that their relationship was brief is ludicrous to those who lived in San Francisco and Sacramento at the time.

In California, she gravitated towards left-leaning politicians who had power. At the time one might call her a political gold-digger. Prior to Biden talking to her about becoming Vice President, she was anti-Biden and embraced Bernie Sanders campaign.

Nothing from the press from the debate everyone is talking about and what they put in their headlines the previous 20 years holds any weight to me as they were nothing but tabloids, a Democratic Party propaganda machine who would bury any story that made their candidate look bad. The days of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein are long gone.

After the shock of the debate starts to wear off, they'll regroup and start burying things again. If Biden wins again, you will start to see a right-wing migration to states that hold the values they believe in; nothing like we've seen before.

From the debate back to the time Harris took office she did 1000 plus appearances but none or almost none at the chaotic border which she was put in charge of. Kamala Harris laughs and deflects when asked tough questions. When pressed into an uncomfortable situation her body language is interesting to look at, her voice goes higher into a nasal whine which is interesting because I hear rumors of people getting tired quickly when they hear her talk.

Lastly, what is going on today and what is going on a week prior to the election is likely going to surprise everyone.

[Doctor Steuss]

Is this true?

I think people are hoping that he will recognize we're running Kamala Harris for president right now. She's -- that's who we're running. Nobody believes Joe Biden's going to be president in four years.

Is there somebody on this board that thinks Biden will be president in four years?

I think, barring a major adverse health event, he'll stick with it until the very end.

I don't know if it's the bit of narcissism that's inherent in people who seek out the heights of political office, or if he's reached that precipice that many old people seem to reach, where they only remember the "good days" and thus overestimate their own abilities. Whatever it is, I think the fact that he's even running again means that he has every intention to be President for the full term. Probably the only thing that would convince him otherwise would be his own family.

Hopefully the career milquetoast bureaucrats that status quo neoliberals tend to surround themselves with will ultimately just continue to conservatively steer the ship, and there aren't any turds that will try to take advantage of the situation.

[Binger]

Is this true?

Is there somebody on this board that thinks Biden will be president in four years?

I think, baring a major adverse health event, he'll stick with it until the very end.

I don't know if it's the bit of narcissism that's inherent in people who seek out the heights of political office, or if he's reached that precipice that many old people seem to reach, where they only remember the "good days" and thus overestimate their own abilities. Whatever it is, I think the fact that he's even running again means that he has every intention to be President for the full term. Probably the only thing that would convince him otherwise would be his own family.

Hopefully the career milquetoast bureaucrats that status quo neoliberals tend to surround themselves with will ultimately just continue to conservatively steer the ship, and there aren't any turds that will try to take advantage of the situation.

The major adverse health event has already happened.

[ceeboo]

I think, baring a major adverse health event, he'll stick with it until the very end.

I don't know if it's the bit of narcissism that's inherent in people who seek out the heights of political office, or if he's reached that precipice that many old people seem to reach, where they only remember the "good days" and thus overestimate their own abilities. Whatever it is, I think the fact that he's even running again means that he has every intention to be President for the full term. Probably the only thing that would convince him otherwise would be his own family.

Hopefully the career milquetoast bureaucrats that status quo neoliberals tend to surround themselves with will ultimately just continue to conservatively steer the ship, and there aren't any turds that will try to take advantage of the situation.

The major adverse health event has already happened.

I think denial is the first step in the grieving process.

[ceeboo]

Binger, just noticed you're posting in SP? I thought you were in prison on death row?

[Binger]

Binger, just noticed you're posting in SP? I thought you were in prison on death row?

I think Xeno is allowing my posts. I am in the queue.

[Doctor Steuss]

I think, baring a major adverse health event, he'll stick with it until the very end.

I don't know if it's the bit of narcissism that's inherent in people who seek out the heights of political office, or if he's reached that precipice that many old people seem to reach, where they only remember the "good days" and thus overestimate their own abilities. Whatever it is, I think the fact that he's even running again means that he has every intention to be President for the full term. Probably the only thing that would convince him otherwise would be his own family.

Hopefully the career milquetoast bureaucrats that status quo neoliberals tend to surround themselves with will ultimately just continue to conservatively steer the ship, and there aren't any turds that will try to take advantage of the situation.

The major adverse health event has already happened.

I was thinking more along the sudden physically incapacitating variety rather than the mentally (slow burn) incapacitating variety, as those seem to bring about the "come to Jesus" moments that nudge the stubborn from their strongholds. I don't think many people who are entrenched in their current life trajectory decide to jettison because they have trouble remembering where they left their shoes.