Calling it "Politically Motivated"

[Chap]

In the simplest terms: if people weren’t buying American versions of products because they were more expensive, why would people buy those same products if their money suddenly purchases much less than it used to because of new tariffs?

Yup.

1. "I can't buy US-made [stuff[ because it is too expensive. But I can get cheaper [stuff] imported from a foreign country. So I'll buy that."

2. "Oh. Trump has just imposed a tariff that makes the foreign [stuff] I used to buy even more expensive than the US [stuff] I can't afford to buy."

3. {.... thinking ....]

4. MOST LIKELY CONCLUSION "Well, since the [stuff] I used to buy has now become ever more expensive than the US-made [stuff] that I can't afford, I'll just have to do without [stuff] altogether."

And this is helpful to the US middle class how, exactly?

[Kishkumen]

I often see so-called conservatives comparing the national economy to a business or a household, which shows me they have no idea what they are talking about. It is just more of that good old “common sense” they insist applies universally. Common sense here means “limited and inaccurate understanding.”

[Gadianton]

Not exactly but that, too. As in the U.S. is the leader in tech exports isn't it? Does that have anything to do with the U.S. importing manufactured stuf for cheap?

Isn't that how business is supposed to work? Isn't that the advantage of international trade?

Fantastic question. There's a saying that today's IT workers are yesterday's auto workers. Sort of true, but a little misleading. Outsourcing of manufacturing can happen without something 'better' taking its place. Yes, this is the advantage of international trade in the simplistic thinking of people like Milton Friedman, and those sound-bytes are inherited by Musk or Romney or most billionaires. The US is the size of several small countries and is resource rich, there is no reason it can't do pretty well on its own without trading with other countries. I rue the day that we ever traded with China just like China rued the day it ever traded with Britain. However, putting the toothpaste back in the tube isn't as easy as shouting "tariff".

Business leaders believe this simplistic narrative because it means they can outsource US jobs and not feel guilty, believing that the free market prevails and ultimately comes around with something better for everyone. Not true. With a few qualification, I have no problem admitting the free market may create the largest pie, however, the slices of the pie that people get are hugely variable. Outsourcing manufacturing meant that business leaders and investors became substantially richer while workers in US became poorer, and workers abroad became richer. The pie is bigger, but the pie spreads across the border to include the wealthier foreign workers and the profits of the US investors. US wealth may increase, but that's because investors benefited more than American workers lost out.

Longing for the days of America as a maker of things and the average person did well is not just about the jobs themselves, but unions and tax structures that are non-existent in the thinking of the MAGA base, even for those with enough brain cells left to see they are being scammed by Musk. The bottom line is that the US can still be the richest country in the world with the top 1% owning all the land and robots (and or sheering outsourced help) and the bottom 99% smashed together in tent cities.

[Markk]

We have a 750 billon dollar deficit, in one year, is not reasonable in my opinion. If it is a 6 out for every 4 in, that is a 2 dollar swing. No business can remotely stay a float with that ratio of loss vs gain.

Well, then I guess you can always force the economy into recession and increase the cost of everything by 25%, and then end up with a smaller trade deficit for a country with an even poorer middle class.

Maybe for somethings, there are a lot of variables, it depends on availability and trade with other partners. If tariffs are put on French wine, you can buy domestic and consumption stays the same and benefits our countries businesses

That’s not how it works. You may see sales drop on French wines but you’ll likely just see consumption drop overall anyway, due to higher prices on everything else. If you’re imposing tariffs on almost every good, then folks will cut back on unnecessary items to compensate for the budget-busting effects of tariffs. They’ll purchase less wine from domestic producers, as well. They’ll eat out less. They’ll buy fewer clothes, or will get more of what they want from thrift stores. They’ll buy less beef and switch to pork or chicken. These are the sorts of things that demonstrate how tariffs drag down sales for ‘made in America’ items and local businesses as well.

In the simplest terms: if people weren’t buying American versions of products because they were more expensive, why would people buy those same products if their money suddenly purchases much less than it used to because of new tariffs?

The answer is: they won’t. And if folks aren’t buying more of the domestically-produced items, then there isn’t going to be an investment in new factories to meet a hoped-for increased demand that won’t actually materialize.

Well see Cakes, we have a fundamental difference of opinion. What we do know for sure, and aside from our opinions, is that free trade is not working and it is getting worse, and our middle class is shrinking, and like I wrote, the top 1% of earners for the first time make more that the entire 60% of "middle class" earners.

In the midst of you merely repeating fluffy talking points, you forgot to consider how the other factors I pointed out are what is really killing the American middle class, as opposed to your belief that we’ll all be able to afford healthcare, childcare, housing, and an increase of 25% on most of our consumables if we can all just have a manufacturing job paying $28 an hour.

I’m sure that you have a calculator close by somewhere; run the numbers on that and get back to me.

I believe the nation needs manufacturing, and the innovation that comes with it, you apparently do not.

I believe that the nation needs manufacturing. So did the Biden Administration, and they did the work to turn the situation around and set it on track for serious gains:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/courtneyfi ... o-benefit/

What the nation doesn’t need are ill-conceived tariffs that are designed to appeal to smooth-brained MAGA mindsets and to feed the Trump Administration’s desire to finance tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, while saddling low-income and middle-class Americans with a budget-busting 25% increase in costs, higher prices for food and housing, and a recession.

You seem to be ignoring the decay of our middle class. That is just a reality you are ignoring. Apart from the 1%, the 60% has been in a steady decline. And it is hand in hand with our loss of manufacturing and fee trade. Again for the first time in our history the 1% earn more than the 60%. That is huge factor.

I am genuinely not sure what the democratic plan is to address this, I googled it, and could not find any specific plan, just talking points. What was the plan under Biden, what did he do to bring the middle class back, and was his plan if he won another 4 years, and by default VP Harris' plan?

Keep in mind, since NAFTA, the WTO, and the PNTR, there has been 28 years of Administrations supporting free trade to 4 years of Administration not. During that time we have seen China rise as a world manufacturing and innovation leader and the US fall.

We have a pretty good idea, right or wrong what Trump's plan is. What is the lefts plan. If I were to gather bits and pieces from what you and a few others have been saying here, it might be to borrow more, tax the rich more, consume more, and manufacture less, and continue to fall deeper into a negative (deficit) trade partner. You tell me, what is the democratic plan?

[Chap]

We have a pretty good idea, right or wrong what Trump's plan is.

Yes we do.

If the captain of the Titanic says he is going to ram an iceberg head on, it is OK to yell "Don't do that!! You will sink the ship". There is no obligation to give the captain a route plan to reach New York, or wherever else the ship is bound.

[Markk]

Not exactly but that, too. As in the U.S. is the leader in tech exports isn't it? Does that have anything to do with the U.S. importing manufactured stuf for cheap?

Isn't that how business is supposed to work? Isn't that the advantage of international trade?

Fantastic question. There's a saying that today's IT workers are yesterday's auto workers. Sort of true, but a little misleading. Outsourcing of manufacturing can happen without something 'better' taking its place. Yes, this is the advantage of international trade in the simplistic thinking of people like Milton Friedman, and those sound-bytes are inherited by Musk or Romney or most billionaires. The US is the size of several small countries and is resource rich, there is no reason it can't do pretty well on its own without trading with other countries. I rue the day that we ever traded with China just like China rued the day it ever traded with Britain. However, putting the toothpaste back in the tube isn't as easy as shouting "tariff".

Business leaders believe this simplistic narrative because it means they can outsource US jobs and not feel guilty, believing that the free market prevails and ultimately comes around with something better for everyone. Not true. With a few qualification, I have no problem admitting the free market may create the largest pie, however, the slices of the pie that people get are hugely variable. Outsourcing manufacturing meant that business leaders and investors became substantially richer while workers in US became poorer, and workers abroad became richer. The pie is bigger, but the pie spreads across the border to include the wealthier foreign workers and the profits of the US investors. US wealth may increase, but that's because investors benefited more than American workers lost out.

Longing for the days of America as a maker of things and the average person did well is not just about the jobs themselves, but unions and tax structures that are non-existent in the thinking of the MAGA base, even for those with enough brain cells left to see they are being scammed by Musk. The bottom line is that the US can still be the richest country in the world with the top 1% owning all the land and robots (and or sheering outsourced help) and the bottom 99% smashed together in tent cities.

Jersey Girl.....this is Gad's way of saying ...."No, we are not the leader in tech exports."

Gad did say something in my opinion that needs some thought and clarification..... " Outsourcing manufacturing meant that business leaders and investors became substantially richer while workers in US became poorer, and workers abroad became richer. '

Keep in mind that while initially to was and is true. But as time goes on and using China as a prime example, they backward engineer our products and at some point just manufacture and export the product cutting out the "middle man" so to speak, the "US business leaders and investors." There are countless examples of this, such as solar panels.

The workers aboard make better wages is probably true, mostly I suppose, but keep in mind, if true, in some cases slave labor is used so in that case it would not be not true. That would be interesting to dive into.

Jersey Girl, it is a both a simple and complicated reality, and is not going away. But to answer your question, we are falling behind in tech exports by several nations.

[Markk]

We have a pretty good idea, right or wrong what Trump's plan is.

Yes we do.

If the captain of the Titanic says he is going to ram an iceberg head on, it is OK to yell "Don't do that!! You will sink the ship". There is no obligation to give the captain a route plan to reach New York, or wherever else the ship is bound.

So Biden and Harris had no plan? What is the democratic caucusses plan?

If Trump's plan does not work, we can always just come back to having no plan. But keep in mind there is precedence in our country that high tariffs worked well in regard to GDP and growth.

[canpakes]

You seem to be ignoring the decay of our middle class.

Not at all. We just have a fundamental difference in opinion on what will help that situation.

I don’t think that the challenges crushing the middle class - healthcare availability and cost, housing costs, childcare availability and costs, and transportation costs and challenges - are going to be helped by handing perhaps a few thousand folks manufacturing jobs a year or three down the road that’ll pay $28 an hour, while immediately increasing the cost of everyday goods today by 25% via tariffs financing tax cuts primarily benefiting folks already earning 10 times or more than the median US ‘middle class’ wage.

You haven’t spent one minute in this conversation on the practical details of how this would work.

Somewhat related, I do find it interesting that you see it as absolutely necessary for the Government to step in and fix a ‘problem’ that is otherwise a core principle of capitalism. Conservatives might be more mindful of that reality in the future.

[Gadianton]

on the practical details of how this would work.

Or even any economic theory that would give it a chance in hell under any interpretation. But then again, who has? Have any MAGA leadership actually claimed that this administration is going to bring 1950s prosperity back to America for the worker? I've seen complaints about 'Merika getting screwed and that's about it. Even the deportations have lacked the "they took our jobs" vibe of the 90s-2000s.

Where are the explanations of the big plans drawn out behind the scenes from right-wing media? Fox hosts seem as baffled as anyone. I watch more right-leaning investor channels now than any and it's all a bunch of guesswork. What about Rogan? Has anyone explained to Joe yet how tariffs are going to transition us to this new era of prosperity -- and what does "prosperity" actually means in that era? The only explanations I've seen come from sources like Kish cited a few weeks ago with Yanis, the Greek economist guy. There are a few attempts out there like that trying to explain the vision of dethroning the dollar or abolishing the fed and creating a gold-bitcoin standard. Most of these sources are critics of the administration investigating Stephen Miran and Peter Thiel to make sense of what the plan supposedly is.

I think a good step for any MAGA warrior out there is to forget dropping their opinions on international finance that they have zero understanding of, and first try to find a source from their own party that explains how tariffs work, explain clearly that the goal is to bring better jobs to American workers, and then explain how the long term plan will achieve that goal. I have doubts that they can get as far as proving that the plan even claims prosperity for American workers let alone show how that's going to happen.

[canpakes]

… first try to find a source from their own party that explains how tariffs work, …

This.

Markk, take it from the first step. Let’s say that the Trump Admin, in the first month, sucks in $50 billion in tariffs levied on importers (In other words once products reach American shores).

1. Where will the money come from?
2. Where is it going?
3. How will it help the middle class, and when?

No fluffy talking points. List some details.