Not when it’s all family and friends with a vested interest, as has already been pointed out to you.
Arguably the most difficult part of my thesis is explaining what that vested interest was. In my view, it goes beyond financial and familial ties.
I’ve shared it privately, and it horrifies me. Really the only way to explain it is allegorically from the evidence presented in the book, but even that would not be well received. To put it lightly.
In my study of the First Vision accounts, I’ve employed structured reasoning tools adapted from the intelligence community through a comparative framework of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and Indications and Warnings methodology.
I’ve looked at the evolution of the First Vision narratives. I’ve assessed each surviving account—1832, 1835, 1838, and 1842–for consistency across language, theology, and timing against competing explanations: that the vision was: 1) Joseph Smith’s original experience; 2) derived from or adapted out of another’s visionary episode; or 3) a later institutional construction.
The pattern of indicators—delayed emergence, escalating doctrinal complexity, increasing narrative control, and alignment with external authority challenges—collectively forms a convergent signal set that is inconsistent with a stable, firsthand recollection.
While the evidence cannot prove that the First Vision did not originate with Joseph, it strongly suggests the story was retroactively assembled from earlier visionary motifs circulating within his family and associates.
The cumulative indicators point to a process of narrative adaptation and theological refinement rather than eyewitness continuity.
In intelligence assessment terms, the preponderance of evidence and cumulative indicators suggest that the canonical account reflects a later synthesis, adapted from pre-existing visionary traditions within Joseph’s circle and repurposed to establish exclusive prophetic authority.
So, it doesn’t prove the vision was not originally Joseph’s, it suggests it with a high degree of analytic confidence, given the available evidence and signal patterns.
Applying the same Analysis of Competing Hypotheses framework, I evaluated whether the available indicators more strongly align with Alvin Smith as the originator of the visionary experience later attributed to Joseph.
Several data points support this hypothesis: contemporary recollections describing Alvin as unusually spiritual and “chosen”; the family’s early language of a divine calling prior to his death in 1823; and the what I see as inferential thematic parallels between Alvin’s experience and the Book of Mormon’s earliest prophetic archetypes (the brother of Jared and Abinadi).
When these are cross-referenced with the Indications and Warnings timeline, the absence of any mention of a “First Vision” by Joseph before Alvin’s death—followed by the story’s gradual emergence years later—appears as a significant temporal indicator of narrative transfer.
The evidence remains circumstantial, but its pattern is consistent with what analysts would label a high-plausibility, low-confirmation scenario: limited direct corroboration but strong convergence of timing, motive, and thematic inheritance. In this model, Joseph’s later recounting likely integrates or re-embodies Alvin’s visionary language and moral authority, transforming a brother’s private theophany into a public founding myth.
So, while definitive proof is unattainable, the probability that the First Vision originated as Alvin’s experience—subsequently appropriated and redacted by Joseph—can be assessed as credible and more consistent with the available indicators than a solitary, contemporaneous vision by Joseph himself.
Earlier, Kish asked how I came up with the “three-in-one” imagery.
I used the same kind of structured-reasoning approach—basically Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and Indications and Warnings—and looked at the dialogue, narrative flow, and sensory details in the story. Certain patterns keep showing up: technical instruction, physical demonstration, reassurance, and clear direction. Those details feel a lot like a mentor-and-student exchange.
When you factor in things like the period’s use of seer stones for mediated revelation, early restorationist theological motifs, and Freemasonic imagery about light, touch, and hidden knowledge, the episode starts to look less like a spontaneous vision and more like a ritualized lesson in esoteric practice.
The story seems to preserve a kind of human initiation, told in three overlapping “sacred languages” familiar to the people around Joseph and Alvin.
Specifically, the theological language could be aligned to Rigdon, Freemason language familiar to Joseph Smith Sr, and esoteric language and tools familiar with Luman Walter, combined and reshaped through later editing and reinterpretation.
You can see the same method inside the Book of Mormon itself. Nephi’s retelling of Lehi’s dream is a good example: an earlier vision is re-narrated and expanded to carry new meaning, much like Joseph’s father’s dream as Lucy Mack Smith records it.
It’s the same redactional pattern. Taking something inherited, reshaping it, and turning it into scripture. It could even be expanded and applied to Smith’s other theological inventions (or adaptations, if you prefer).
Not when it’s all family and friends with a vested interest, as has already been pointed out to you.
Arguably the most difficult part of my thesis is explaining what that vested interest was. In my view, it goes beyond financial and familial ties.
I’ve shared it privately, and it horrifies me. Really the only way to explain it is allegorically from the evidence presented in the book, but even that would not be well received. To put it lightly.
I’d be interested in hearing it.
Premise 1. Eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable.
Premise 2. The best evidence for the Book of Mormon is eyewitness testimony.
Conclusion. Therefore, the best evidence for the Book of Mormon is notoriously unreliable.
In my study of the First Vision accounts, I’ve employed structured reasoning tools adapted from the intelligence community through a comparative framework of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and Indications and Warnings methodology.
I’ve looked at the evolution of the First Vision narratives. I’ve assessed each surviving account—1832, 1835, 1838, and 1842–for consistency across language, theology, and timing against competing explanations: that the vision was: 1) Joseph Smith’s original experience; 2) derived from or adapted out of another’s visionary episode; or 3) a later institutional construction.
The pattern of indicators—delayed emergence, escalating doctrinal complexity, increasing narrative control, and alignment with external authority challenges—collectively forms a convergent signal set that is inconsistent with a stable, firsthand recollection.
While the evidence cannot prove that the First Vision did not originate with Joseph, it strongly suggests the story was retroactively assembled from earlier visionary motifs circulating within his family and associates.
The cumulative indicators point to a process of narrative adaptation and theological refinement rather than eyewitness continuity.
In intelligence assessment terms, the preponderance of evidence and cumulative indicators suggest that the canonical account reflects a later synthesis, adapted from pre-existing visionary traditions within Joseph’s circle and repurposed to establish exclusive prophetic authority.
So, it doesn’t prove the vision was not originally Joseph’s, it suggests it with a high degree of analytic confidence, given the available evidence and signal patterns.
Hi Limnor, some things to point out:
Delayed emergence doesn't necessarily equal fabrication. Joseph's 1832 account affirms a divine encounter. It is not unreasonable to think that further theological understanding occurred after that.
Doctrinal development is natural. Religious leaders often reinterpret formative experiences as roles and insights deepen.
Narrative control reflects institutional needs, not deception...and to repeat, it also doesn't necessarily equal fabrication.
Visionary traditions don't preclude originality. I would expect that there might even be some similarities if the vision is coming from the same source. Joseph's experiences and the symbolism he used often emerged from the cultural soil he was born into.
I've talked often about evolution and the part that it plays in the larger world. Believers have a confidence/faith that Joseph had a real and evolving spiritual experience that was later articulated in ways that matched his growing understanding and leadership role.
But ongoing embellishment of memories usually does. The memory is notoriously unreliable. It does not get better over time, it gets worse. That’s a well known fact. Especially when the first “outing” for the First Vision story was many years after it supposedly had happened. The time delay, and ongoing embellishment of the memory, are all red flags. Especially with what modern studies tell us about the fallibility of personal recollections. Joseph didn’t even remember that he’d “seen God” until the second or third revision of the tale.
Premise 1. Eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable.
Premise 2. The best evidence for the Book of Mormon is eyewitness testimony.
Conclusion. Therefore, the best evidence for the Book of Mormon is notoriously unreliable.
But ongoing embellishment of memories usually does. The memory is notoriously unreliable. It does not get better over time, it gets worse. That’s a well known fact. Especially when the first “outing” for the First Vision story was many years after it supposedly had happened. The time delay, and ongoing embellishment of the memory, are all red flags. Especially with what modern studies tell us about the fallibility of personal recollections. Joseph didn’t even remember that he’d “seen God” until the second or third revision of the tale.
I have to wonder why the church chose to canonize a version of the FV in which Joseph did not claim to have seen any identifiable persons - only unidentified "personages".
Perhaps because this was the only version with two personages, and with one personage saying that the other was his "beloved son"? This expression appears to be suggestive of "God the Father, and Jesus Christ", although it's not at all explicit.
I'm biased, of course, but this seems to me like a trick to make people believe something without actually saying it clearly and unambiguously. In other words, deliberately misleading - somewhat opposed to the standard that the church uses for honesty in dealing with others.
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He was the same age as Helen Mar Kimball when she was given to the 37 year old Joseph Smith in marriage. So by association you are saying that middle aged Joseph had sex with a child.
Premise 1. Eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable.
Premise 2. The best evidence for the Book of Mormon is eyewitness testimony.
Conclusion. Therefore, the best evidence for the Book of Mormon is notoriously unreliable.