$30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

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Rivendale
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

Post by Rivendale »

drumdude wrote:
Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:21 pm
Physics Guy wrote:
Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:54 pm
Sailing faster than the wind is weird, but part of the weirdness is in saying it that way. It makes you think of a square-rigged sailboat somehow out-sailing the wind, and that indeed will not work. Think of a windmill hooked to wheels on a track with gears, though, and it's obvious that you can use wind power to move straight into the wind, if you want. And indeed these bizarre faster-than-the-wind wind-powered vehicles are mounting rotors, not sails.

In fact they aren't just windmills, and what they are doing is not as obvious as that. They are not just absurd; in fact they actually work; how they work is quite tricky.

As with most physics puzzles, there are different ways you can think about this one. Here a big consideration is whether to think about everything in the reference frame of the ground, where the vehicle is moving, or from the reference frame of the vehicle, where the ground is running under the wheels like a conveyer belt. Most other physics conundrums have different perspectives in some way like that.

From each perspective there will usually be some parts of the solution that seem obvious while other parts are hard to notice. Also, which aspects of the situation are crucial and which are insignificant details is not obvious until you understand everything fully. So it's tempting to adopt one perspective and decide that the things that seem obvious from that perspective are crucial while the things that are obscure must be unimportant.

When people who have adopted different perspectives on the problem argue, they tend to thump the table about the points that seem clear from their perspective, and respond to the other person's points by just reiterating their own. This can make a physics argument look a lot like a religious argument. But there are two big differences.

Firstly, of course, in the physics case one can do the experiment. These DDFTW vehicles really do work in practice, so the problem is to understand how they work, not to dispute about whether they do. Once everyone accepts that they do work, however, exactly how they work can still be a dispute—and it's not just an academic dispute, because it may have implications for how to improve these vehicles or apply their principles in other ways.

So even after the first difference of experiment between physics and religion, the second difference remains important as well. In physics all the simple arguments from any perspective are just simplifications of a fully detailed theory that remains the same in all perspectives. So arguments from any perspective can be translated into the other perspective, with objectively perfect translation accuracy, if one is willing to go into enough detail. Sitting around the table with beer, nobody may have enough time or sobriety to do this convincingly; the pens and napkins will come out but the napkins will be too small and the diagrams will be crooked.

If people stand in front of a whiteboard the next day going at it hammer and tongs for as long as it takes, though, the truth will come out. After an hour or two or more, the disputants will have descended into such fine detail that they will have invented their own private language just for this specific discussion. If a third party arrives it will take them several minutes just to explain to the newcomer what they are saying. But at some point one of the disputants will say, "Oh. You were right." Or perhaps both will realise that neither was right.

At any physics conference you will find lots of little gatherings around whiteboards going through that kind of exercise. It's why we have conferences. The big auditorium lectures aren't nearly as important.

In theoretical physics it is always possible to zoom in to more detail, because if you really must, you can try to talk about what every single electron in every atom is doing. If you could do that successfully, you would necessarily resolve every problem. So zooming in to more detail is a reliable tool for resolving controversies. It can be time-consuming and hard. It strains brains, even brilliant ones.

My brain has not been brilliant enough so far to fully understand these DDFTW vehicles. From one perspective I can see pretty clearly how they can work, but from that perspective I can't see why they won't work to "sail" in dead calm. From another perspective I can see clearly why they can never sail in dead calm, but this second perspective is no help to me in seeing how they can work when there is some wind. So I can kind of cover all the bases, but only with different perspectives, and that is not good enough. I won't consider that I understand this problem properly until I can explain all of its features succinctly from a single perspective—and do that from any perspective.

I reckon I'm only going to be able to resolve the paradox that fully by going to a more detailed level, and that will take a few hours, for sure. I often burn up hours on tasks that looked at first as if they would be done in minutes, but these days it's hard to find time for anything that I know in advance will take hours, if it's not something I have to do.

Maybe when I retire.
For me, I get an intuitive understanding of how it works by watching this video, starting at 13:30

https://youtu.be/yCsgoLc_fzI

It is essentially force multiplication just like you see with pulleys, gears, and levers.

Exactly. The little wheels vs the large propeller create a lever situation. The 2x4 on top of the wheel combination shows it perfectly.
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

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That's a nice video, and the two-by-four with the little car with the big and small wheels is a nice, clear illustration of the general kind of phenomenon. Like my windmill example, it shows that the idea of the faster-than-wind wind-powered vehicle definitely isn't absurd, and it's a bit closer to the way this craft actually works than my windmill example.

But it's not a propeller-driven vehicle, so it doesn't help me see exactly what goes wrong with the propeller vehicle when there is no wind. The little car cannot move at all if the 2x4 is not moving relative to the floor, because the upper and lower wheels are rubbery, so neither of them will slide, and they are geared together. The wind vehicle, in contrast, could definitely roll a little ways in still air, if you gave it a shove. You just can't get any net force out of motionless air to keep the vehicle moving against friction. So the rotor vehicle really isn't as simple as the 2x4 car thing, beautiful as that is.

It's obvious that the FTW vehicle won't work in still air. If it did, it would be a perpetual motion machine. It's not obvious to me exactly what goes wrong, though, when the wind velocity is zero. I'm sure it's something quite basic, but it'll be somewhere in the details of wind resistance and stuff like that. In fact it'll be exactly the kind of detail that, if faster-than-wind downwind "sailing" actually were impossible, would be the reason why it was impossible. I'm not going to consider that I understand this whole problem until I can put my finger on exactly what this detail is.

It's maybe worth mentioning that the Laws of Thermodynamics are often like that: they tell you that something won't work, but they often don't tell you why it won't work. There always will be some specific detail that is the reason why, however. It's not that the Angel of Entropy will appear and smite you for breaking the Law. It'll be that some part of your gadget that is supposed to swing left will really swing right, or will get hot when it is supposed to get cold, or something like that. So if you want to understand what's going on, you may have to dig a bit, even if you know from thermodynamics what the bottom line has to be.
Last edited by Physics Guy on Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

Post by Philo Sofee »

Not to change the subject, but has anyone yet heard how many new people have been baptized because of this Bayes Theorem analysis of Kyler's? Has anyone heard how many have chosen to stay because this stellar information demonstrates the church and especially the Book of Mormon is, after all, true? Just curious...
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

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Philo Sofee wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:49 am
Not to change the subject, but has anyone yet heard how many new people have been baptized because of this Bayes Theorem analysis of Kyler's? Has anyone heard how many have chosen to stay because this stellar information demonstrates the church and especially the Book of Mormon is, after all, true? Just curious...
I heard it's in the thousands range, but don't quote me on that. He could also get a nice notch in his belt if he can find people saying things like, "I was on the brink of a faith crisis, but this high level deep dive into Bayes pulled me out of it. It all feels so probable now."
“Every one of us is, in the cosmic perspective, precious. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.”
― Carl Sagan, Cosmos
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

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It’ll be quite a big number, if you divide it by a small enough fraction.
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

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Philo Sofee wrote:
Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:49 am
Not to change the subject, but has anyone yet heard how many new people have been baptized because of this Bayes Theorem analysis of Kyler's? Has anyone heard how many have chosen to stay because this stellar information demonstrates the church and especially the Book of Mormon is, after all, true? Just curious...
Exactly. How many people credit the Kalam as the piece of evidence that moved the dial enough to commit?
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

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Kyler continues to respond to inquiries about this $10k challenge with outright dismissal and a strong inference that I'm somehow asking something unreasonable in bad faith. By doing so, he is lying to himself and to others.

I think it's important to remind folks what allowances I've offered to make his task easier.

In the beginning, I offered a $10,000 bounty to any of the Team Bayes authors upon completion of demonstrating a key requirement for validity in their use of probability multiplication.
Dr Moore wrote: To win the prize, submissions must satisfy the following conditions:
1. Provide a proof, with data, that each probability is statistically independent (or if you prefer, uncorrelated or mathematically orthogonal) to each of the other probabilities.
2. Submit these proofs in writing.
3. Pass review by a current BYU statistics or stochastics professor of my choosing.
Peterson informed me that he relayed the challenge. Kyler Rasmussen is, so far, the only member of Team Bayes to have responded. However, Kyler demurred immediately on the basis that it would be too much work, and most of the task requires gathering data which cannot be gathered. E.g., it's not feasible to conduct a proper "statistical test that would demonstrate independence between, say, the authenticity of the Book of Abraham and the plausibility of Nephi's voyage, or the presence of Israelite DNA in the Americas."

And this would rightly capture some of what my $10,000 challenge demands, and he's correct that "proving" 1-vs-1 independence among his Bayesians might be incredibly hard if not impossible. But let's be clear -- this dodge of his misses the point of the challenge entirely.

First, because any serious effort will AT MINIMUM attempt to explain the basis for assuming statistical independence among the many sub-probabilities that Kyler wants to multiply together. Not just 1-vs-1 independence, but 1-vs-all. Not only has Kyler avoided the potentially impossible task of showing statistical independence with quantitative experiments, he hasn't even offered a qualitative basis for the assertion. For that reason alone, his academic-sounding project is categorically not serious and seriously a time waster for all readers.

Secondly, because there is a HIDDEN correlation between most of Kyler's cherry-picked Bayesian point probabilities -- that being Joseph Smith himself. It's not random people, or a random person, guessing at these various things. Kyler is overlooking a glaring survivorship bias in his project. I think it's a fatal thing to overlook.

Third, because the exercise of demonstrating independence would inevitably show that not all data is being presented, and therefore the conclusions are invalid. Kyler is, in other words, showing most of the dice rolls he wants to show, and neglecting to consider the many dice rolls that go against his pre-determined conclusions. A rigorous process of seeking to show statistical independence among Bayesian conditionals must incorporate input from professional statisticians and skeptics alike, or else the process is simply not rigorous. And yes, I'm accusing Kyler of making a false representation that what he's done is rigorous, when it actually isn't. It's fun, but at MOST his project is just pornography for math-minded believers.

But I didn't stop there.

Here, I reduced the burden on winning the $10k prize considerably.
Dr Moore wrote: If Team Bayes will have their papers reviewed and given publicly-signed statements of “clean process” when it comes to the statistical treatments, each by 2 current professors of statistics at BYU (or a higher ranked university), I will consider that good enough to award the prize for each paper.

Clean process in terms of:
- Proper setup and evaluation of the Bayesian conditionals
- Properly addressing statistical independence of multiplied probabilities
So now I've offered to pay for 2 BYU professors to act as process consultants and sign off on the project's statistical validity. Nothing more. Now this is about as generous as it gets. It takes me completely out of the picture, for one. And for any serious mathematical treatment of the subject matter, to refuse free help of this caliber amounts to, sorry to say it, scholastic suicide on Kyler's part.

But here is Kyler's response:
Kyler Rasmussen wrote:These have received a friendly review from people with the appropriate credentials, and I made quite a few changes on the basis of their feedback. At this point because all of the analyses are intertwined pretty heavily, they're essentially locked down beyond minor adjustments, so the time for additional peer review has unfortunately passed.
So he got the nit-picking input he wanted, and will hear no more. I can't help but laugh a little about his admission that his series, comprising 23 Bayesian analyses, are "intertwined pretty heavily"? That doesn't sound at all like a serious scholar working with independent variables!!! Rather, it sounds a lot like a stubborn engineer who is too proud of his cherry-picked chart porn to consider the blind spots that may entirely invalidate his process, his math, and his conclusions.

Which makes the project specifically NOT a piece of scholarship. So why is it featured on a "Journal of Latter-day Faith and Scholarship"? Truth in advertising, please.

In fact, Kyler did confess, on this board to the project being merely a personal bit of fun:
Kyler Rasmussen wrote: I would've been perfectly happy to just have these on my personal blog to chat about with my friends, but throwing them on Interpreter felt like a decent compromise between a public profile and complete obscurity
Not long after this, I made the $10k prize available for Kyler to win for himself (as in, no longer a pro-bono task for an Interpreter donation).
Dr Moore wrote: It wouldn’t be tax deductible to send the money right to him, but given that I’ve seen zero interest from Gee or the Dales in addressing this most basic request of statistical validity, I would be willing to modify the deal to award Kyler the $10k cash prize directly. In that event, the other two awards would be cancelled. One winner only.
Which Kyler ignored.

And finally, in the latest offer to elevate his work from junk science to something respectable, I offered a $5,000 personal award if Kyler would simply attempt a reasoned qualitative explanation for statistical independence, signed-off by a BYU professor.
Dr Moore wrote: But wait, there's even MORE! Since Kyler continues to dodge the essential challenge here, I will see his "red herring" and do him one better. I will award Kyler half of the challenge reward, $5,000, if he will simply will tackle independence among all of his Bayesian constructs with a reasoned logical analysis explaining why the components of his Bayesian conditionals should all be considered as independent processes from the components of his other Bayesian conditionals. That's it. Now, it will be a challenge to explain why Joseph is not correlated with Joseph amongst all 23 of these conditionals, but if Kyler is convinced, let's hear it. He can skip the controlled data experiments, if that work is too hard or he's too lazy to try, and still win half the prize. And if a BYU professor of my choosing reads it all and signs off on the reasonableness of "independence" in Kyler's work, then the $5k is his.
After which Kyler disengaged. So I've removed all the "impossible" barriers for him and he still won't try.

Honestly, I plead with anyone of Kyler's "friendly" credentialed mathematics or statistics associates to come and defend this project as anything more than an exercise at biased chart porn.

Meanwhile, I take Kyler's collective responses as an open admission his Interpreter series is nothing more than junk faith science, entirely lacking in process due a work of scholarship.
Last edited by Dr Moore on Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

Post by Philo Sofee »

Very powerfully presented. Full disclosure. Now as part of our background, we can declare Interpreter has no actual interest in real scholarship, and your materials here is the evidence, evidence which we all read ***as it was unfolding and Kyler was here talking about it*** It's not like we are being cronies or anti-Mormons, we simply have both sides of this coin, an invaluable acquisition for a Bayesian analysis of whether Interpreter is the real thing or not. The probability based on this demonstrates to any reasonable chap or babe Interpreter has no interest whatever in scholarship, it's all about image and makin the church glow with holiness. And it can't even accomplish that. THANK YOU for this beautiful summary of your Herculean efforts to try and get Mormons to at least approach something - anything, honestly, and allowing us to see for ourselves their adamantine refusal. This is priceless! Your efforts here and work are being read and fully appreciated, it is NOT a thankless effort, and for that, you may now step into the hero shoes awaiting thine great feet!
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

Post by Dr Moore »

Philo Sofee wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:49 pm
...a Bayesian analysis of whether Interpreter is the real thing or not.
Philo, this statement has me wondering about the construction of a Bayesian

What is P(A|not B), where

A = a work of scholarship is intellectually honest

B = acceptance and incorporation of broad critical peer review in the process

?
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Re: $30k challenge to Interpreter’s “Team Bayes”

Post by hauslern »

Have you seen Dr Davis' presentation on the oral sermon culture and its influence in the creation of the Book of Mormon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTwWfGzjkg8
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