The 2012 Election
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Re: The 2012 Election
Bad News: The latest several Polls from Florida show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney there.
Polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.html
Polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.html
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
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Re: The 2012 Election
Brackite wrote:Bad News: The latest several Polls from Florida show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney there.
Polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.html
Polls show Obama leading basically every swing state except North Carolina (where poll averages show Romney up 0.3% polling points:
State Obama Romney Margin Change from 9/26 4 years ago
National 48.6 46 2.6 -2.3 O+5.3
Colorado 49.1 45.7 3.4 0.5 O+5
Florida 50.9 46.2 4.7 0.4 O+1
Iowa 48.9 44.8 4.1 -0.3 O+9.2
New Hampshire 49.8 45.3 4.5 4.3 O+1.3
Nevada 49.6 45.2 4.4 -1.1 O+0.5
North Carolina 47.2 47.5 -0.3 0.0 O+0.3
Ohio 50.2 43.7 6.5 0.5 O+2
Virginia 48.9 44.8 4.1 0.2 O+2.5
Wisconsin 51.5 43.7 7.8 0.0 O+5
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/0 ... for-Romney
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
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Re: The 2012 Election
Good News: Mitt Romney is back in the lead over Barack Obama in Florida.
Times/Bay News 9/Herald exclusive Florida poll: Romney 51, Obama 44:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/n ... 44/1255882
Times/Bay News 9/Herald exclusive Florida poll: Romney 51, Obama 44:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/n ... 44/1255882
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
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Re: The 2012 Election
1st Debate: Romney wins (pretty big)
VP Debate: Biden wins (despite his guffawing)
2nd Debate: Obama wins (not quite as big)
Nuff said I think most people would agree.
Otherwise I think not much else to say. I am tempted to move a couple of states one way or the other but will wait until the Monday night debate before I do, namely moving North Carolina to Romney and Nevada/New Hampshire to Obama. Otherwise a lot hinges on the impression coming out of the last debate.
With interest I'm watching the early voting numbers coming out of some of the states. They don't reveal the actual votes but they do release absentee numbers by party. Indications point towards Obama taking Iowa and Ohio on this basis and Romney getting Florida and North Carolina on that very raw data.
Safe Obama: 237
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)
Safe Romney: 191
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
Tossup: 110
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)
VP Debate: Biden wins (despite his guffawing)
2nd Debate: Obama wins (not quite as big)
Nuff said I think most people would agree.
Otherwise I think not much else to say. I am tempted to move a couple of states one way or the other but will wait until the Monday night debate before I do, namely moving North Carolina to Romney and Nevada/New Hampshire to Obama. Otherwise a lot hinges on the impression coming out of the last debate.
With interest I'm watching the early voting numbers coming out of some of the states. They don't reveal the actual votes but they do release absentee numbers by party. Indications point towards Obama taking Iowa and Ohio on this basis and Romney getting Florida and North Carolina on that very raw data.
Safe Obama: 237
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)
Safe Romney: 191
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
Tossup: 110
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
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Re: The 2012 Election
From Politico.com:
States - Obama - Romney - Obama - Romney
Colo. --- 47.7% --- 47.9% ----- 0 ----- 9
Fla. ---- 46.7% --- 48.8% ----- 0 ----- 29
Iowa --- 49.0% --- 46.6% ----- 6 ----- 0
Nev. --- 49.0% --- 46.0% ----- 6 ----- 0
N.H. --- 47.8% --- 48.8% ----- 0 ----- 4
N.C. --- 44.7% --- 50.3% ----- 0 ----- 15
Ohio --- 48.1% --- 46.0% ----- 18 ------ 0
Va. ----- 48.0% --- 48.0% ----- 0 ----- 13
Wis. --- 49.8% --- 47.0% ----- 10 ----- 0
Swing-State Votes ------ 40 ---- 70
Leaning/Likely State Votes -- 237 ---- 191
Total Overall Votes ------ 277 ---- 261
States - Obama - Romney - Obama - Romney
Colo. --- 47.7% --- 47.9% ----- 0 ----- 9
Fla. ---- 46.7% --- 48.8% ----- 0 ----- 29
Iowa --- 49.0% --- 46.6% ----- 6 ----- 0
Nev. --- 49.0% --- 46.0% ----- 6 ----- 0
N.H. --- 47.8% --- 48.8% ----- 0 ----- 4
N.C. --- 44.7% --- 50.3% ----- 0 ----- 15
Ohio --- 48.1% --- 46.0% ----- 18 ------ 0
Va. ----- 48.0% --- 48.0% ----- 0 ----- 13
Wis. --- 49.8% --- 47.0% ----- 10 ----- 0
Swing-State Votes ------ 40 ---- 70
Leaning/Likely State Votes -- 237 ---- 191
Total Overall Votes ------ 277 ---- 261
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
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Re: The 2012 Election
Brackite wrote:From Politico.com:
States - Obama - Romney - Obama - Romney
Colo. --- 47.7% --- 47.9% ----- 0 ----- 9
Fla. ---- 46.7% --- 48.8% ----- 0 ----- 29
Iowa --- 49.0% --- 46.6% ----- 6 ----- 0
Nev. --- 49.0% --- 46.0% ----- 6 ----- 0
N.H. --- 47.8% --- 48.8% ----- 0 ----- 4
N.C. --- 44.7% --- 50.3% ----- 0 ----- 15
Ohio --- 48.1% --- 46.0% ----- 18 ------ 0
Va. ----- 48.0% --- 48.0% ----- 0 ----- 13
Wis. --- 49.8% --- 47.0% ----- 10 ----- 0
Swing-State Votes ------ 40 ---- 70
Leaning/Likely State Votes -- 237 ---- 191
Total Overall Votes ------ 277 ---- 261
A likely scenario although I think New Hampshire will go Obama for 281-258. As you can see the polling is razor thin (if you take out some of the more blatant Republican pollsters like Gravis and Rasmussen several Romney polls will swing back). Virginia is a also a literal tie so not sure why you give it to Romney. Colorado can also easily swing. I think Florida and North Carolina will go Romney though.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
-
- _Emeritus
- Posts: 2690
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:21 pm
Re: The 2012 Election
In summary:
Romney won 1st debate
Team Democrat won the last three debates
With that in mind I'm going to go out on a tiny limb:
Safe Obama: 247
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)
*Nevada-6 (Obama-2008)
*New Hampshire-4 (Obama-2008)
Safe Romney: 191
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
Tossup: 100
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)
A real jump I know. I want to see more polling on North Carolina before I move it to Romney only because some of the early voting reports from North Carolina are favoring Obama and I want to see how the foreign policy debate affects the state. Other than that I think Florida/Ohio/Virginia/Colorado/Wisconsin will be game day decisions while I think Iowa will slip for Obama and North Carolina to Romney.
Romney won 1st debate
Team Democrat won the last three debates
With that in mind I'm going to go out on a tiny limb:
Safe Obama: 247
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)
*Nevada-6 (Obama-2008)
*New Hampshire-4 (Obama-2008)
Safe Romney: 191
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
Tossup: 100
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)
A real jump I know. I want to see more polling on North Carolina before I move it to Romney only because some of the early voting reports from North Carolina are favoring Obama and I want to see how the foreign policy debate affects the state. Other than that I think Florida/Ohio/Virginia/Colorado/Wisconsin will be game day decisions while I think Iowa will slip for Obama and North Carolina to Romney.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
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Re: The 2012 Election
Bond James Bond wrote:Less than 40 days until the election and less than a week until the first debate.
Anyone want to show me a viable map to the White House for Romney that doesn't include him pretty much sweeping all the swing states where Obama currently holds a lead of average polling?
Tossup: 110
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)
Of these states where does Romney look strong except North Carolina (which has swung Obama recently in the polls)?
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado look to have moved to Romney.
Nevada and Wisconsin appear to be safe for Obama.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio are anybody's guess.
I'd say your original prediction is unlikely (332-206 or 303-235). Of course, if I had made a prediction on September 28, I would have said much the same.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
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Re: The 2012 Election
Bob Loblaw wrote:Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado look to have moved to Romney.
Nevada and Wisconsin appear to be safe for Obama.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio are anybody's guess.
I'd say your original prediction is unlikely (332-206 or 303-235). Of course, if I had made a prediction on September 28, I would have said much the same.
This is where it gets interesting. How much of a swing can there be in the next 12 days? Assuming both candidates keep doing what they're doing and there aren't any huge surprises, does Romney have enough momentum to win?
I honestly didn't expect Romney to be doing this well, or Obama to be doing this poorly.
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Re: The 2012 Election
Bob Loblaw wrote:Bond James Bond wrote:Less than 40 days until the election and less than a week until the first debate.
Anyone want to show me a viable map to the White House for Romney that doesn't include him pretty much sweeping all the swing states where Obama currently holds a lead of average polling?
Tossup: 110
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)
Of these states where does Romney look strong except North Carolina (which has swung Obama recently in the polls)?
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado look to have moved to Romney.
Nevada and Wisconsin appear to be safe for Obama.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio are anybody's guess.
I'd say your original prediction is unlikely (332-206 or 303-235). Of course, if I had made a prediction on September 28, I would have said much the same.
Yeah I think it's more likely your prediction of 281-257 is most likely but all of those states (even North Carolina was called a tie in a poll today by PPP) are basically coin flips from the polling. Real Clear Politics leans Republican and Pollster leans Democrat. In the end they about cancel themselves out and lead to...a stupid coin flip.

Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
MASH quotes
I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it.
I avoid church religiously.
This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.