There are serological estimates of New York that are a google away. It is not "most people" or any where near that. Herd immunity is in the neighborhood of 3 quarters of the population depending on how contagious the disease is. Epidemiology is math, guys.
Are the ICUs over capacity in Florida? When are we going to see the massive increase of young healthy people on disability due to Covid? More positive tests do not necessarily mean more deaths.
The number of confirmed positive cases is increasing much faster than the number of tests administered. Thus the increase in the number of positive cases can't be merely due to the increased rate of testing. There must be an actual increase in the number of cases. That should be as plain as the nose on your face. The increase in the number of deaths is always a lagging indicator, thus it stands to reason that any daily increase in the number of new cases will almost certainly be followed by a commensurate daily increase in the number of deaths a week or more later. This is already becoming plainly evident. I can't believe that a supposed medical professional like you would not know that!
If what you have posted here about this pandemic is indicative of your overall competence in your chosen profession, I don't think I would trust you to administer eye drops!
No precept or claim is more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
“If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.”
― Harlan Ellison
The increase in the number of deaths is always a lagging indicator, thus it stands to reason that any daily increase in the number of new cases will almost certainly be followed by a commensurate daily increase in the number of deaths
But it hasn't led to an increase in the number of deaths. The number of deaths at least in Florida has stayed pretty constant. The increase in cases is due to younger people with mild to no symptoms being infected. But let's say for the sake of argument that lack of social distancing caused enough cases that the ICU was overwhelmed which led to more deaths that could have been treated and saved had the ICU not been overwhelmed.. Then how is it that you think BLM protests should continue to roar on unimpeded essentially killing these people that you've accused me of killing for going back to work?
If what you have posted here about this pandemic is indicative of your overall competence in your chosen profession, I don't think I would trust you to administer eye drops!
I never claimed to be an epidemiologist. I'm not sure why I should have to know any of that to say one or two. I listen to what the board says to do. If that's not good enough for you, I certainly wouldn't want you as a patient. I have plenty.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
It's just that the argument from the other side is that it's better for the economy that we shut it down in an attempt to keep people from ever being exposed to Covid and becoming disabled. So now that it has been around for a while, how many of these people are actually disabled due to their bout with Covid?
Do you think the social distancing rules are going to keep most people from ever being exposed to Covid?
You misunderstand the purpose of the shut down.
Where did I say this was the purpose of the shutdown? I'm saying this was an argument given to me on this board against my belief that it wasn't doing much good to shut down the economy. So I'm bumping this to Doc and whoever else hit me with this argument three months ago to chime in and answer the questions I laid out.
The purpose of the shutdown in my view was not to keep everyone from being exposed, which I think is inevitable, but to keep rate of hospitalizations down to a number our hospital system could handle. Flattening the curve doesn't change the area under the curve. The same number of people are going to get sick.
I'm done talking at this point until I get some straight answers rather than partisan political campaign rhetoric.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
1. A few weeks ago Dr. Fauci said that when we see a spike in cases this usually takes a few weeks before it translates to a spike in deaths. And right now our five day average has doubled in deaths over the past five days from 443 to 885. The average daily deaths over past 5 days is now 83 in Florida, compared to the previous 44. In Texas, the average daily death count has increased by 180% to 98 over the past five days compared to the previous 35. In Arizona that daily rate has more than tripled to 68 compared to the previous 18.
2. The only reason we're not seeing 2,000+ daily deaths like we did months ago is because back then the vast majority of those deaths came from New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts which have all done an amazing job at flattening their curves.
2. The number of those hospitalized has nearly doubled in the past three weeks. It was 27,000 June 21 and today it is over 52,000. The most we ever had hospitalized was 59,000 back on April 15.
3. Your assertion that most everyone in New York has already been exposed is pure ignorance as more than 99% of all testing in New York yields negative results as testing has tripled over the past two months. https://covidusa.net/?state=New+York
5. If we were a disciplined, educated society that wore masks from the early stages then we would likely be running the economy at 100% by now like several other countries have. But we're dragging this out because we're a stupid nation led by a moron of a President who hasn't spoken to Dr. Fauci in over two months. And we have too many whining Right Wingers like you who see conspiracy in everything except their own party. The only other country that compares to us in COVID in stupidity and unpreparedness is Brazil, and to no one's surprise their President is emulating everything Trump has said and done on this subject.
6. Based on your questions, you're the dumbest damned "doctor" on the internet.
Last edited by Guest on Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"One of the hardest things for me to accept is the fact that Kevin Graham has blonde hair, blue eyes and an English last name. This ugly truth blows any arguments one might have for actual white supremacism out of the water. He's truly a disgrace." - Ajax
I'm saying this was an argument given to me on this board against my belief that it wasn't doing much good to shut down the economy.
The economy was never shut down. It has been up and running at at least 70-80% since April. The reason this is dragging out longer than it should is because of people like you who refuse to follow instructions by medical professionals.
The purpose of the shutdown in my view was not to keep everyone from being exposed, which I think is inevitable, but to keep rate of hospitalizations down to a number our hospital system could handle. Flattening the curve doesn't change the area under the curve. The same number of people are going to get sick.
I'm done talking at this point until I get some straight answers rather than partisan political campaign rhetoric.
Which is literally the only thing that has ever come from your racist self. You're so damned stupid you're purporting to be a doctor while asking the dumbest questions people in grade school have known the answers to for many weeks now. Your problem is Brietbart isn't going to educate you on anything that matters.
"One of the hardest things for me to accept is the fact that Kevin Graham has blonde hair, blue eyes and an English last name. This ugly truth blows any arguments one might have for actual white supremacism out of the water. He's truly a disgrace." - Ajax
So me going to work with a mask on is why Covid has spread. But BLM protests didn't spread the virus. Masks work at protests but not at your job. And if I don't believe this I'm a racist who shouldn't be practicing optometry. Ok, I think I've got a handle on your perspective. Thanks for confirming it to me.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
So me going to work with a mask on is why Covid has spread. But BLM protests didn't spread the virus. Masks work at protests but not at your job. And if I don't believe this I'm a racist who shouldn't be practicing optometry. Ok, I think I've got a handle on your perspective. Thanks for confirming it to me.
Earth to dumbass. The spikes correlate to places where Republican Governors threw caution to the wind and opened things back up full throttle. You know, like Florida for Spring break tourism. Texas and especially Oklahoma/Arizona which saw tremendous spikes right after Trump's rallies there.
The protests have been going on for many weeks, and there is evidence of a slight increase in cases, but nothing compared to the skyrocketing numbers we've seen in Red States where BLM has done very little protesting. The larger, more prolific protests are in Minnesota and Washington.
And EA has pointed this out to you already, but it bears repeating. In terms of pandemic spread, there is a huge difference between OUTDOOR mask wearing and INDOOR maskless crowds gathered for hours at a time in tight quarters. Even if all had masks the risk outdoors is far less than indoors. Again, you're a joke of a doctor if you need this explained to you.
Your preoccupation with the protests is childish. Its like my 7 year old saying he shouldn't have to wash his hands because Jessica and Xander forgot to brush their teeth this morning.
"One of the hardest things for me to accept is the fact that Kevin Graham has blonde hair, blue eyes and an English last name. This ugly truth blows any arguments one might have for actual white supremacism out of the water. He's truly a disgrace." - Ajax
The head of family medicine at New Jersey’s Robert Wood Johnson Medical Center, Dr. Alfred Tallia said:
“[We’re] ‘managing, but just barely,’ at keeping up with the increased number of sick patients in the last three weeks. The hospital’s urgent-care centers have also been inundated, and its outpatient clinics have no appointments available.”
Time magazine
“Dr. Bernard Camins, associate professor of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, says that UAB Hospital cancelled elective surgeries scheduled for Thursday and Friday of last week to make more beds available to flu patients. “We had to treat patients in places where we normally wouldn’t, like in recovery rooms,” says Camins.”
“In California… several hospitals have set up large “surge tents” outside their emergency departments to accommodate and treat flu patients.” Even then, the LA Times reported this week, emergency departments had standing-room only, and some patients had to be treated in hallways.”
“From Laguna Beach to Long Beach, emergency rooms were struggling to cope with the overwhelming cases of influenza and had gone into “diversion mode,” during which ambulances are sent to other hospitals. O.C. Global, one of Orange County’s busiest hospitals, announced Thursday afternoon it would no longer be accepting ambulances at its emergency room, except for those transporting trauma patients. “It’s not just Orange County, it’s all across the country,” internist Dr. Ray Casciari with St. Joseph Hospital told CBS2 News. “So, yes, this is going to be an epidemic year,” Casciari warned.”
In Fenton, Missouri, SSM Health St. Clare Hospital has opened its emergency overflow wing, as well as all outpatient centers and surgical holding centers, to make more beds available to patients who need them. Nurses are being “pulled from all floors to care for them,” says registered nurse Jennifer Braciszewski. “Almost every patient in the hospital has the flu, and it’s making their pre-existing conditions worse,” she says. “More and more patients are needing mechanical ventilation due to respiratory failure.”
“At Parkland Memorial Hospital in Dallas, waiting rooms turned into exam areas as a medical tent was built in order to deal with the surge of patients."
"It’s so overwhelmed the community hospital that they’ve gone on bypass at times — that means they tell ambulances to bypass this ER and find another. “In a flu epidemic, so many patients can get the flu it’s going to strain medical resources which is why you’re asking the public only go to the hospital if you’re having severe symptoms. Can’t eat, can’t drink, can’t breathe, those kind of symptoms,” Dr. Marinelli said.”
“Dr. Atallah, the chief of emergency medicine at Grady [Hospital in Atlanta], says the hospital called on a mobile emergency department based nearly 250 miles away to help tackle the increasing patient demand. “At 500-plus patients a day you physically just need the space to put a patient in. “
“Hospitals across the state are sending away ambulances, flying in nurses from out of state and not letting children visit their loved ones for fear they’ll spread ..... the flu
Yep, these are all quotes from 2018 about something you didn't know or care about, because it wasn't a presidential election year.
In 2018 the Flu Put More of a Strain on U.S. Hospitals Than COVID-19 has....so why are you in such a panic today?
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent