Pretty cool. suppose somebody showed up and started telling you that you're lying, or that it was an illusion, or just made fun of it or whatever. On a scale of 1 to 10, how badly would that bother you?
Chap,
I'm not capable of comprehending probabilities that small or probabilities too granular. I'm not sure I could tell, subjectively, the difference between something I give 10% possibility or something I give a 20% possibility. To give anything a chance at all, I'd probably have to give it 5% at least. So I'd say the chances of alien tech (not necessarily biological alien beings) is 5%, for the fighter-jet videos. I'd say the chance of the restoration of the gospel is 0%, subjectively.I take it that even the fullest benefit of the doubt you are willing to grant will simply increase the likelihood of the "It's aliens!' option from zero to more like 0.0000000000000001% max.
I think that gamblers get into trouble in part because odds that are subjectively exaggerated. I think that I vastly overrate, subjectively, my chances of catching Covid. Not a bad thing, as post 2nd vaccination I still wear and N-95 mask; but I feel like the odds are 30%, and I think they are much lower. But even then, I can guide my subjectivity a little better if there are actual hard numbers.
At the end of the day, the jet-fighter phenomena is necessary to explore on its own terms and hopefully those in charge of the research have zero vested interest in aliens. I commend you if your subjective impulse puts aliens at 0%. All I said is that I must disclose my bias. I can't force myself to believe something less than I do. All I can do is be honest about it and acknowledge it, so that you're all duly warned that I might be too optimistic about evidence that seems favorable to alien tech.