Res Ipsa wrote: Yes, but if you are exposed on the trip?
I croak on the beach in sunny Florida?
No, you bring the virus home with you. Where you don’t want it.
ETA: What Gunnar said. You don’t sound self absorbed because you’ re taking JB’s risk into account.
“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
Jersey Girl wrote:I croak on the beach in sunny Florida?
No, you bring the virus home with you. Where you don’t want it.
ETA: What Gunnar said. You don’t sound self absorbed because you’ re taking JB’s risk into account.
You guys give me far more credit than I deserve. I'm not showing you the tantrum that's going on in my head. Meanwhile....people are losing loved ones.
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
One number that may turn out to be very good is from South Korea. From what I’ve read, South Korea has the most widespread testing effort for SARS-CoV-2 currently in the world. They’re looking for as many infected folks as they can find. And they’re finding lots.
Why is that good? It’s an indication that there are actually more mild cases than we thought based on the initial Chinese data. And that may indicate a lower death rate.
Using total deaths/total cases, the overall death rate is about 3.4%. Right now, the same rate in South Korea is about .6%
Estimating death rates is tricky during an epidemic, so this number is not a reason to ignore your local health department. There is another way to look at death rates during an epidemic: deaths/(deaths + recoveries). Right now, that total figure is about 6%. For South Korea, that number is currently 46%. But that’s because deaths are easier to find than recoveries at the start of an epidemic. As all those cases they’ve ferreted out recover, that number will decrease substantially. The same thing happened with that figure for China. It started in a similar range and dropped over time.
However, unless some other country starts more aggressive surveillance than South Korea, I think it’s worth paying attention to the estimated death rates there as we go forward. There’s a good chance it will give us a better estimate of the death rate than that based on the data from China.
“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
Jersey Girl wrote:So Walmart was a FUBAR just now. Went in to pick up a coupla things. Of interest is what wasn't on the shelves.
Clorox Wipes Hand sanitizer Flu and Cold medicines Supplements Fresh Basil*
To be accurate, there were some supplements still left but no zinc and not many of the vitamins I take (only the mini size was left) so I opted for a big honkin' multi with zinc and B12 this time because why not.
I overheard a mother with her boys asking a Walmart worker if they had any medical masks. He said they'd be in on the 14th. Good luck with that sis.
You can tell people not to panic and they still do.
Right after I made this post, I went on Amazon and put three types of zinc supplements into my cart so I could watch the price go up. Just checked. One sold out already.
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
Jersey Girl wrote: I went on Amazon and put three types of zinc supplements into my cart so I could watch the price go up. Just checked. One sold out already.
moksha wrote:I suspect some parts of the world might be underreporting. For instance, there are only 2 cases in Russia and 3 in India.
CONSPIRACY THEORIST!
If only they used a quadratic formula to report their numbers we could all chill.
- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
King County just finished up a live press conference. Numbers: 4 new cases, two of which resulted in death. The two patients that died and one other of the new cases are connected with the cluster in Kirkland (living care facility.) The other is at Highline Hospital (just south of Seattle) and is not yet connected to any other case. In addition, one new death in Snohomish County.
The County has purchased a motel and is setting up portable living units at several sites for those who need to be isolated but do not require hospitalization. It sounds like this is mainly for the homeless.
The County is not recommending the cancellations of large gatherings or school closures today, but it's pretty clear that's coming. Many parents are unhappy that schools are not being closed because there is not time for students to do the frequent hand washing, etc., let alone cleaning of surfaces, necessary to stop the spread in schools. This will change if a case is tried to schools (which has already happened in Snohomish County. But, because children rarely get ill from Covid-19 to the point they are hospitalized, the only was they will spot a case is by tracing contacts from a confirmed case.
The extent of testing is being driven by the capacity to do tests. Today, we have one state lab processing about 200 per day. Within two weeks, they expect to be up to 1000 tests per day. Right now, they are sticking with the expanded protocol CDC announced last week: absent close connection to a confirmed case, testing is being done only on those with serious respiratory symptoms and all other causes have been ruled out. The University of Washington has a lab expected to come on line in the next two days. Capacity will start at a couple hundred a day and increases to 1000 per day. There are three testing runs a day, so new cases may be announced 3x per day.
According to a statement today by the WHO director, WHO still thinks the outbreaks can be contained and terminated by contract tracing and isolation. It's clear that the King County Health Department disagrees, and is warning that we will hit a point where they will run out of resources to trace contacts. At that point, they will shift from containment to mitigation.
In Snohomish county, we had a couple of schools close today, I believe because a student or students were contact traced to confirmed cases. Not sure how long the schools were close for.
“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”
― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
I'm starting to wonder if I should be wearing a mask. After 10 years of 40 patients/day breathing on me doing slit lamp eye exams, I often don't get sick myself. I unfortunately just pass it on to my family.
I'm starting to envy people who work from home. This is not a fun time to be working in the public service sector.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
Huh. The CDC removed the reporting number for persons tested. That’s weird.
- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
