Charlie Kirk shot at UVU in Orem

[Physics Guy]

When an apprehended suspect of an assassination is a lone wacko, theories that a more competent second shooter fired the real killing shot may be tempting, but they are weird. For two unconnected assassins to fire simultaneously, just by coincidence, is absurdly unlikely, but the idea that they would fire simultaneously as part of a plan doesn't actually make much more sense.

What kind of competent assassin is going to involve an amateur wacko in a difficult and dangerous plan? Of course if you postulate afterwards that it happened that way, then you're postulating that the plan went off without a hitch, and so it must have been a great plan that successfully diverted attention from the real killer. If you think about it as a plan made in advance, though, it obviously brings a lot more risks of many kinds of screw-up than it offers in benefits to the second assassin.

Yeah, the wacko might distract the authorities, but that's only worth so much to the second shooter. They're still going to have to make their shot and get away undetected, and if they can do that, then they don't really need the wacko's distraction; it's just a bit of a boost. To gain that boost to their escape chance, however, the second shooter must at least have been one of the few people who knew about the wacko's plans in advance—and that's assuming that the second shooter never actually discussed any plan with the wacko but just adapted their own plan to fit in with the wacko's plan. Even just being one of few people to know about the wacko's plan, in advance and in detail, makes it more likely that authorities will find some clue leading back to the second shooter, after the wacko is caught. Any actual back-and-forth coordination between the shooters is only going to raise this risk to the second shooter.

The only way I can see this kind of piggyback assassination plan as at all attractive to the real assassin would be if the wacko had declared to an untraceably large number of people that they were going to shoot person X at place Y and time Z. If that large crowd of people who all heard the wacko's detailed threat happened to include the one competent and motivated assassin, the competent assassin might decide to show up at place Y as well, ready to shoot at exactly time Z. The assassin would somehow have to judge, though, that this loudmouthed wacko who could not be relied upon to pull off the assassination alone could nonetheless be relied upon to implement their announced plan precisely enough that it would be worth the assassin taking the risk of showing up at place Y and time Z with a weapon—when a large number of people all knew that there was an assassination threat to person X at precisely that place and time.

If you assume afterwards that the plan all worked great, then it might seem like a plausible plan. If you think about it in advance, though, it's a crazy plan.