Gadianton wrote:Analytics,
thanks for reading the book summary from Murray's cousin. A serious error was made, and it was overlooked to note that there was only one kind of tree in the forest, since as I'd mentioned earlier, my issues with the book were long before racial considerations. It actually doesn't make a difference to my argument but it is an unnecessary complication that gets in the way of communicating my point. Your recasting with saplings is certainly fair, and I should have gone that route in the beginning; I actually did not quite intend it to read the way it did when I checked in this morning. So here is the updated version of that last post with alterations colored:
Analytics wrote:
only that low IQ is at rhe root.
Analytics wrote:
His fear going forward is that even if everyone's IQ significantly rises, society is only going to have a good place for those in the top x%.
To me these statements are incompatible, and may even get to the root of what I've been trying to say in many of my posts in regards to what bugs me about the book.
the analogy..
As I understand it, in forests, trees compete for sunlight. Whether the average tree is forty feet tall or two hundred feet tall, the trees at some standard deviation(s) below mean will get so little light that they are at greater risk for disease and death. Perhaps trees are predisposed for the height they have as some believe or as others believe, we could send gardeners to fertilize some of the smaller trees to give them a better chance, and perhaps they will grow taller, but as they do, they will crowd out trees that were nearly their peers in height that we didn't fertilize. If we fertilize all trees, it doesn't matter because it's the same problem but twenty feet higher in the air. Well, nature has its way of optimizing across millions of trees and thousands of forests, and perhaps generally, the loss of trees within the lower tail isn't too bad.
In this analogy we are interested in a particular forest called the Darkening Forest, and many more trees within this forest begin to die than we expect. Note there is only one kind of tree in this forest. We're worried, and so we send Murray's cousin to the scene who is a botanist. He brings all his gear and studies the trees and and then writes a book that he summarizes below.
Book Summary:
I arrived at the Darkening Forest several weeks ago with my knife, a microscope, a calculator and a spade, and I have carefully studied a fair sample of the trees of this forest. Oh, how beautiful they are, every single one. I do hope we can find a solution for this growing tragedy, but I warn you, what I've discovered I'm afraid to say is quite shocking, and it's going to take real bravery to speak about these issues openly and fairly.
Critical to understanding my findings is familiarizing ourselves with the notion of HighQ. Every tree has a HighQ, and this is discovered by, first, cutting into a branch and observing the cells and taking a good look at a certain innate property. With several trees measured in such a fashion, we at last, find the average measure and normalize that to the value 100. The average tree, then, has a HighQ of 100. Most trees find themselves within the vicinity of a HighQ of 100, which is depicted by the middle hump of a bell curve that represents a normal distribution. HighQ is important in that it represents a trees ability to access sunlight, which is needed for it to grow. A tree with a high HighQ is a tree we expect to drink gobs of sunlight and rise toward the clouds stout and true.
Now, here's where our tale gets shocking. As I measured these trees, I found that most of the trees within the Darkening Forest that are dying have low HighQs. How bad is it? Brace yourselves, because you may not wish to accept it. I measured dozens upon dozens of trees with HighQs a full standard deviation below the mean! I wouldn't have believed it myself if I didn't read the tick from the tape with my own eyes. I recall looking at one tree in particular that really struck a chord within me. I liked this tree and wished to save it. Could it be helped? Well, whatever our plans for that tree, just bear in mind that it's HighQ was only 80. Seriously folks, how can you save a tree with an 80 HighQ?
And so my book concludes that tragically, the root cause of the deaths of trees within the Darkening Forest is low HighQ. There are just too many trees below average, unfortunately; no wonder the whole things going to pot.
I think you pretty-much nailed it. When you take out the race thing and recognize that there will necessarily be a hierarchy of winners and losers, the only thing the book really says is that the world has changed so that IQ predicts the winners, and that there will be some interesting dynamics as this new reality sets in.