Brace yourself, bcspace, for 4 more Obama years

[_Sethbag]

[_Brackite]

...

I really like Obama a lot. He's actually achieved quite a bit so far in his Presidency, despite the Republicans since the 2010 midterms. I don't agree with everything, for example I was disappointed Obama caved to the environmentalists on their (IMHO irrational) opposition to the Keystone pipeline, but oh well. I guess it was a political necessity, and not necessarily a permanent decision: the company can resubmit, and Obama can use it as a bargaining chip again later this year with the Republicans, and maybe get something from them in return.

...



During the November 2010 midterm elections when the Democrats still controlled the House of Representatives, the unemployment rate for the Nation was as high as 9.8%. Now that the Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives for quite a while, the unemployment rate for the Nation is down to 8.5%. (1)
The Three States that have the lowest unemployment rates within the Nation are North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska. All Three of these States have Republican Governors. (2)
The State with the second highest unemployment rate within the Nation is the State of California. California has an unemployment rate as high as 11.1%. The Democratic Party has controlled both the State Assembly and the State Senate in California since 1996. The State of California now has a Democratic Governor. (3)


1. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

2. http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

3. http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/california/

[_The Dude]

OK. So if we had a Republican governors for all 50 states, the recession would end? I can only imagine what miracles would happen if we the GOP controlled the presidency and both chambers of congress. Why, I suppose that would mean every day could be Christmas. Obviously, given those insightful correlations...

[_Brackite]

OK. So if we had a Republican governors for all 50 states, the recession would end? I can only imagine what miracles would happen if we the GOP controlled the presidency and both chambers of congress. Why, I suppose that would mean every day could be Christmas. Obviously, given those insightful correlations...

If California instead had a Republican control State Assembly, a Republican control State Senate, and a Conservative Republican Governor, I guarantee you that the unemployment rate would not be as high as it is there now.

[_Bond James Bond]

During the November 2010 midterm elections when the Democrats still controlled the House of Representatives, the unemployment rate for the Nation was as high as 9.8%. Now that the Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives for quite a while, the unemployment rate for the Nation is down to 8.5%. (1)
1. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Brackite,

Unemployment was at 9.8% after a major recession. If the stimulus packaged hadn't been released in February 2009 unemployment numbers would have been far worse. Easily unemployment might have slipped into double digits, 10-13% if not for the stimulus package. See this graph:



Now as you can see under Obama job losses were high during 2009. But they actually peaked out (in the negative) and were headed in a positive direction after the stimulus package in February 2009. Now imagine if that stimulus had not been released in 2009 and job losses continued to increase negatively. Instead of peaking out at months of 800k losses we might have had months where we lost 1 million jobs, 1.2 million, 1.3 million. Basically assume that the stimulus package was an enormous plug that was stuck in the biggest hole of the failing dam. We still were leaking jobs from our economy, but it blocked a total failure.

On a side note, what did Republicans do in 2011 that improved the economy? All I see is a slow steady recovery, a side effect of the slingshot the stimulus package put the economy on in 2009.

On another side note, California was governed by a Republican, Schwarzenegger, from Nov 2003 to Jan 2011. Does he get no blame for California's 11% unemployment or does it get hung around California's current governor, Jerry Brown, the same way President Bush Jr.'s economy was hung around the neck of Obama like an anchor?

[_The Dude]

OK. So if we had a Republican governors for all 50 states, the recession would end? I can only imagine what miracles would happen if we the GOP controlled the presidency and both chambers of congress. Why, I suppose that would mean every day could be Christmas. Obviously, given those insightful correlations...

If California instead had a Republican control State Assembly, a Republican control State Senate, and a Conservative Republican Governor, I guarantee you that the unemployment rate would not be as high as it is there now.

Oh I believe your guarantee 100%. The correlations don't lie - and what about Christmas every day?

[_EAllusion]

During the November 2010 midterm elections when the Democrats still controlled the House of Representatives, the unemployment rate for the Nation was as high as 9.8%. Now that the Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives for quite a while, the unemployment rate for the Nation is down to 8.5%. (1)

What's the causal link? After all, a minor decrease in unemployment rate coupled with a tepid GDP growth rate was was projected as the most likely outcome for the relevant time period by the majority of economists well before the outcome of any election in 2010. What's happening right now falls well within the lines of mainstream economic prediction, which I take to be an effective argument against anything short of macro-scale policy changes having a significant impact on economic trends. What we're seeing right now is just slow recovery from a deep recession and financial systems collapse. Do you think economies are controlled by demon goddesses that are pleased when Republicans take office or something?

I find the idea that politicians can have as sharp, immediate impact on macroeconomic numbers with minor tweaks to policies to be a very unconservative idea, by the way.

[_EAllusion]

I think it is current mainstream economist opinion that the US is going to have a slow, spotty recovery until around the year 2015 where the economy is projected to finally - finally - take off at a healthy rate again. I can only imagine how utterly annoying it is going to be to watch partisan hacks try and take credit for that eventuality.

[_moksha]

Now that the Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives for quite a while, the unemployment rate for the Nation is down to 8.5%.

Bracklite, what about rainfall totals or meteor strike counts? You could also mention the stats from Jimmer Fredette's senior season since they too fall within this time period.

Hope that helps.

[_Bond James Bond]

Topping for Brackite