Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

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_ajax18
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _ajax18 »

Res Ipsa wrote:
ajax18 wrote:Slavery doesn't exist but we still practice something very similar with Latino immigrants. It's really not that different nor will the results be in subsequent generations.


Do tell.


I'm certainly no apologist for slavery. Slavery has nearly ruined the country. Latinos very much identify as the new slave labor class in the US. Slavery ended over 150 years ago. Yet it's negative effects will never end. Centuries later we're still debating reparations in Congress. Centuries later latinos will be asking for their reparations. And worse than that, the same lazy class of elite white liberals will be looking for some other group of disadvantaged people to do their work for them. They'll be conniving some scheme to get other people to pay the price for it.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
_EAllusion
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _EAllusion »

Dave Wasserman has a neat analysis up showing that in a close election Trump very plausibly can lose the popular vote by around 5 million while winning the electoral college. This is due to demographic changes that are making blue states bluer, which doesn't net any more electoral votes, and Texas and Georgia bluer, but not blue enough to flip. Meanwhile, midwestern swing states are getting redder.
_Res Ipsa
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _Res Ipsa »

EAllusion wrote:Dave Wasserman has a neat analysis up showing that in a close election Trump very plausibly can lose the popular vote by around 5 million while winning the electoral college. This is due to demographic changes that are making blue states bluer, which doesn't net any more electoral votes, and Texas and Georgia bluer, but not blue enough to flip. Meanwhile, midwestern swing states are getting redder.


Just read it. Solid analysis, I’d say.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_EAllusion
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _EAllusion »

Res Ipsa wrote:
EAllusion wrote:Dave Wasserman has a neat analysis up showing that in a close election Trump very plausibly can lose the popular vote by around 5 million while winning the electoral college. This is due to demographic changes that are making blue states bluer, which doesn't net any more electoral votes, and Texas and Georgia bluer, but not blue enough to flip. Meanwhile, midwestern swing states are getting redder.


Just read it. Solid analysis, I’d say.


Nate Cohn has a similar analysis up today as well. His findings are roughly the same. He finds that Trump can lose the popular vote by 5 points, which is a very significant margin in presidential elections, and still win.

I'd be pretty surprised if Trump lost the popular vote by more than 5 points.
_Res Ipsa
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _Res Ipsa »

My bad. I read Nate’s.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_Res Ipsa
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _Res Ipsa »

ajax18 wrote:
I'm certainly no apologist for slavery. Slavery has nearly ruined the country. Latinos very much identify as the new slave labor class in the US. Slavery ended over 150 years ago. Yet it's negative effects will never end. Centuries later we're still debating reparations in Congress. Centuries later latinos will be asking for their reparations. And worse than that, the same lazy class of elite white liberals will be looking for some other group of disadvantaged people to do their work for them. They'll be conniving some scheme to get other people to pay the price for it.


I won’t pretend to read up on everything, but this is the first I’ve heard that Latinos consider themselves slave labor. Where does that idea come from?

If you’re talking about immigration policy that allowed migrant workers to enter illegally but turned a blind eye to employers who hired them at substandard wages, that’s not some scheme of the liberal elite, unless farmers and contractors are closet liberals. Politicians of all stripes are responsible for that mess.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_subgenius
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _subgenius »

ajax18 wrote:Slavery doesn't exist but we still practice something very similar with Latino immigrants. It's really not that different nor will the results be in subsequent generations.

No, slavery does still exist...and is a global problem...like a real problem....but meh, not a lot black voters care about that when 40 acres and a mule could manifest real change for their inner city life.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
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_moksha
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _moksha »

subgenius wrote:....but meh, not a lot black voters care about that when 40 acres and a mule could manifest real change for their inner city life.

Sounds like a statement that might make sense if you explain it.
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_EAllusion
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _EAllusion »

The RNC raised a ton of money recently. They raised as much in the last quarter as the entire DNC did for their entire 2 year build up to the mid-term campaign. First, that's not just going to go to help re-elect Trump. It's going to go to win state legislatures and governor's races to use gerrymandering to tighten their grip further. Second, the politically active wealthy mostly have decided authoritarianism is good and are voting with their pocketbook.
_moksha
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Re: Trump Will Probably Lose 2020

Post by _moksha »

subgenius wrote:Trump's dismal fundraising for 2020 totes supports you guys.....totes.

The Trump campaign has spent $2 million on Facebook ads in the last week. He will rake in a windfall from tech companies alone as long as Senator Warren keeps talking about breaking them up. That may have worked for Teddy Roosevelt, but that was in the pre-television era.

I imagine Trump could even get some free ads on the Russian state-run TV
Cry Heaven and let loose the Penguins of Peace
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